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Aug 6, 2018
Aug 6, 2018

Outright La Liga betting: 2018/19 La Liga preview

Making La Liga predictions

Projected La Liga table

Using expected points to predict the La Liga table

Who will win La Liga?

Outright La Liga betting: 2018/19 La Liga preview

Where is the value in Pinnacle’s La Liga outright betting odds? This article uses Pinnacle’s projected points for each team to predict the La Liga table. Who are the La Liga teams bettors should be aware of this season? Read on to find out.

La Liga table 2018/19 prediction: What do the odds say?

This is the predicted La Liga table based upon Pinnacle’s La Liga over/under points totals:

2018/19 La Liga projected points

Position

Team

17/18 points

18/19 projected points

1

Barcelona

93

88.5

2

Real Madrid

76

82.5

3

Atletico Madrid

79

78.5

4

Valencia

73

62.5

5

Sevilla

58

61.5

6

Villareal

61

59.5

7

Real Betis

60

58.5

8

Real Sociedad

49

58.5

9

Athletic Bilbao

43

55.5

10

Celta Vigo

49

52.5

11

RCD Espanyol

49

48.5

12

Eibar

51

44.5

13

Alaves

47

43.5

14

Getafe

55

40.5

15

Leganes

43

38.5

16

Levante

46

38.5

17

Girona

51

37.5

18

Rayo Vallecano

N/A

36.5

19

Real Valladolid

N/A

33.5

20

SD Huesca

N.A

32.5

This is the points change from 2017/18 to 2018/19 implied by Pinnacle’s projected point totals:

La Liga Points change

Team

Point change

Athletic Bilbao

+12.5

Real Sociedad

+9.5

Real Madrid

+3.5

Sevilla

+3.5

Celta Vigo

+3.5

Atletico Madrid

+2.5

RCD Espanyol

-0.5

Villareal

-1.5

Real Betis

-1.5

Alaves

-3.5

Barcelona

-4.5

Leganes

-4.5

Eibar

-6.5

Levante

-7.5

Valencia

-10.5

Girona

-13.5

Getafe

-14.5

Pinnacle’s point totals anticipate Athletic Bilbao improving upon a disappointing showing in 2017/18. Their Basque rivals Real Sociedad are also expected to improve whilst last season’s surprise packages – Valencia, Girona and Getafe- are expected to regress.

However, are Pinnacle’s projected points a fair reflection of these team’s abilities?

La Liga 17/18 expected points vs 18/19 projections.

Expected points use expected goals data to calculate the number of points a team can expect to win based on the quality and quantity of shots taken by themselves and their opponents in individual matches.

Looking at last season’s expected points data should help to isolate any teams who over or underperformed. The teams who’s seasons varied significantly from this statistic may regress to the mean during the 2018/19 season.

La Liga 17/18 expected points vs 18/19 projections

Team

2017/18 expected points

18/19 projected points

Difference

Getafe

57.53

40.5

17.03

Girona

53.03

37.5

15.53

Eibar

50.79

44.5

6.29

Espanyol

44.68

38.5

6.18

Leganes

44.58

38.5

6.08

Athletic Bilbao

54.13

55.5

-1.37

Real Madrid

79.99

82.5

-2.51

Real Sociedad

55.84

58.5

-2.66

Sevilla

58.61

61.5

-2.89

Celta Vigo

48.83

52.5

-3.67

Valencia

58.23

62.5

-4.27

Alaves

39.03

43.5

-4.47

Villarreal

54.96

59.5

-4.54

Levante

41.82

48.5

-6.68

Real Betis

50.51

58.5

-7.99

Barcelona

79.44

88.5

-9.06

Atletico Madrid

61.6

78.5

-16.9

 

As you can see from the table, Getafe’s 55 point return last season was actually a marginal underperformance compared to their expected points. This flags them up as a potential value selection compared to Pinnacle’s point totals.

The expected points demonstrate why Athletic Bilbao are projected to drastically improve on their 17/18 showing. Last season’s 43 point total was over eleven points less than their expected total with the side scoring just 41 goals from an expected goals total of 51.79.

Atletico Madrid perhaps show the limitations of using expected points data. They have considerably outperformed their expected goals for and against statistics over the past four seasons so the data does not reflect their true quality.

The same is probably true to some extent for the better teams in the league who are likely to have better goalkeepers and marginally more clinical strikers.

La Liga Net transfer spend

Of course incomings and outgoings will have an impact on how teams are expected to perform next season. Perhaps the likes of Getafe have lost key players from last season’s campaign?

La Liga net spend 18/19 Summer transfer window

La Liga net spend 18/19

Team

Net spend (£ millions)

Atletico Madrid               

98.55

Villarreal

42.66

Athletic Bilbao

25.5

Getafe

17.75

Girona

7.38

Alaves

3.62

Rayo Vallecano

6.39

Levante

4.05

SD Huesca

0.45

CD Leganes

0.27

Real Valladolid

0

Valencia

-0.36

SD Eibar

-0.9

RCD Espanyol

-3.6

Celta Vigo

-9

Real Sociedad

-16.92

Sevilla

-17.64

Real Betis

-22.95

Real Madrid

-38.93

Getafe and Girona have actually been two of the more proactive teams in the transfer market (although Getafe did lose first-choice goalkeeper Vicente Guaita) whilst Atletico Madrid and Barcelona have significantly strengthened their squads.

Valencia have made a slight profit, however they did lose key attacker Goncalo Guedes after his loan came to an end, whilst Real have not yet reinvested the funds from the sale of Cristiano Ronaldo.

Outright La Liga betting: Who will win the La Liga title?

Barcelona are rated as being a full six points ahead of Real in the race for the title. The teams were actually fairly even when it came to expected points last season but Barca were fired to the title by the superb finishing of Messi and an excellent season from goalkeeper Marc Andre Ter Stegen.

Real Madrid have lost Cristiano Ronaldo who contributed to almost a third of their goals last season. Real may well be more fortunate in close matches next season but someone will need to replace their record scorers’ output if they are to keep pace with Barca.

Despite improving their squad Atletico Madrid are projected to be a further four points back from Real. Whether their dramatic over performance compared to their expected points is sustainable is open to debate.

Barca are available at 1.769* to defend their La Liga title and could offer value at those odds.

Making La Liga predictions

When betting on points totals and La Liga outrights bettors should be aware of a team’s expected and actual performance.

Given that their strong 17/18 season is backed up by impressive underlying statistics Getafe look like a team to watch. They are available at 1.653* to win over 40.5 points this season.

However, bettors should monitor any transfers away from the club. Star defender Djene Dakonam is one player who has been linked with a move. The La Liga transfer window remains open until August 31.

Real Betis are a team who may see their point total drop from last season. They have lost Fabian Ruiz, who was a key part of last season’s success, and keeper Antonio Adan. They also have the extra complication of a Europa League campaign.

Betis can be backed at 1.877* to score under 58.5 points and that could prove to be a sensible bet considering last season’s potential overperformance.

Bet with Pinnacle for the best La Liga outright odds ahead of the 2018/19 season.

Odds subject to change

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