After a 3-0 opening-day triumph at Deportivo, Real Madrid host Valencia in their first home game of the new La Liga season. Having won their last eight competitive matches in a row, Zinedine Zidane’s men are in fine form. Will Real Madrid continue that run this weekend or can Valencia spring a surprise? Read on for some betting insight.
Live Real Madrid vs. Valencia odds
Real Madrid vs. Valencia betting: Recent games
While Real Madrid look almost unbeatable at the moment, the Spanish champions have not had it all their own way against Valencia in recent years. Of their last seven La Liga meetings, Real have only won two. Crucially, however, those two were the most recent meetings to take place at the Bernabeu.
Back in April, Real Madrid beat Valencia 2-1, while they edged them 3-2 at home the previous season. Los Che clearly relish taking Real on, though, beating them 2-1 at the Mestalla last campaign, while each of the two sides’ last eight La Liga meetings have involved at least three goals.
A common theme since a 0-5 victory for Real Madrid in 2013 is how close these games have become. Neither team has won by more than one goal in eight league meetings, with three of them finishing 2-2. During Madrid’s 2-1 win in April, Valencia equalised in the 82nd minute, only for Marcelo to score the winner in the 86th.
Real Madrid betting: Goals from several sources
Ultimately, it was still three points for Real Madrid and, considering their recent form and achievements, confidence is understandably high within Zidane’s camp at the moment. Last season, Real lost just three league games – and only one at home. The 44-pass move that led to Casemiro’s goal on Sunday night, meanwhile, is indicative of Real’s quality.
Confidence is understandably high within Zidane’s camp at the moment. Last season, Real lost just three league games – and only one at home.
What is most ominous about Real Madrid right now is the number of different goalscorers Zidane has at his disposal. Against Deportivo, Gareth Bale, Casemiro and Toni Kroos all struck. In the Super Cup against Manchester United, it was Casemiro and Isco, while Marco Asensio, Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo netted in the Spanish Supercopa vs. Barcelona (over two legs).
Ronaldo is suspended for the Valencia game – yet he was hardly missed at Deportivo. A bigger miss may be Sergio Ramos, sent off in the final minutes of that 3-0 win. However, Real Madrid will be confident of compensating at the other end; they conceded in 14/19 home games last season but scored at least twice in an impressive 16/19.
Can Marcelino steady the ship at Valencia?
Valencia kicked off their La Liga campaign with a 1-0 win against Las Palmas. Their clean sheet was notable (they only managed seven last season) and fans will be looking to new manager Marcelino to lift them higher than 12th, where they have finished for the last two seasons. The Spaniard has pedigree, previously achieving a top-four finish with Villarreal.
Under Marcelino, Valencia have genuine hope of finally steadying the ship and Los Che can be buoyed by last season’s head-to-head record. Valencia conquered Real Madrid at the Mestalla and were only denied away from home in the final minutes. Few teams can look to such encouraging facts as motivation heading to the capital.
The obvious problem for Valencia, of course, is that they haven’t beaten Real Madrid in an away La Liga match since 2008. While they have run them close on many occasions, there is a reason they are at such a huge price with Pinnacle to shock the Bernabeu.
Real Madrid vs. Valencia betting: Where is the value?
The obvious problem for Valencia is that they haven’t beaten Real Madrid in an away La Liga match since 2008, despite running them close on many occasions.
With Real Madrid in such fine form and determined to make even more history this season, backing against them makes little sense unless you are supremely confident in Valencia’s chances of an upset. There is potential value, however, in Valencia +2.5 at 1.862*. Considering the two close games these sides played out last season, many may see the sense here. If you want to learn more about handicap betting, read our soccer handicap betting guide.
There could also be value in looking towards the team totals market. Marcelino’s men are 2.020* to score over 0.5 goals, something the club have managed in each of their last four visits to the Bernabeu. The fact Valencia have scored in each of their last six La Liga games, combined with Ramos’s absence, may also encourage bettors.