The Madrid derby is the highlight fixture in La Liga this weekend, with both teams looking to catch Barcelona at the top of the table. Who will take the first-ever derby points at the Wanda Metropolitano? What value can be found in the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds? Read on for some Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting insight.
Live Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid betting: Derby day
This Saturday’s clash will be the first derby played at Atletico Madrid’s new Wanda Metropolitano stadium.
Although their previous stadium, the Vicente Calderon was seen as a fortress for Los Rojiblancos, life at their new ground has been less than impressive. Whilst they are unbeaten in the league at home, they have drawn two and won two; including drawing their last two home games.
In his seven league appearances this season, Ronaldo has amassed 6.9 shots per game, no player in La Liga has had more shots per game.
Diego Simeone hasn’t strayed away from the tactics that has seen Atletico win the La Liga during his reign; the side is built around defensive stability. Atletico have the second best defensive record in the league, which includes six clean sheets in their last nine league games.
Whilst they may share a city, there are little similarities between the football that Atletico and Real Madrid play. With the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Isco in their ranks, Los Blancos are expected to play attractive soccer while still getting the right result; a note that Real have failed to hit so far this season.
Third place for most clubs is a good position at this time in the season, but Real Madrid are by no means any club. Barcelona are steaming ahead at the top of the league and a Real loss in the derby could see them fall eleven points behind their rivals.
This Sunday’s Madrid derby already feels like a must-win for both sides if they want to have any chance of challenging Barca for the title.
Madrid derby: Overperforming vs. Underperforming
Whilst Real have struggled so far in the league (in comparison to their extremely high expectations), the chances created may, in fact, show that Real are soon to come into form, possibly in this weekend’s fixture against their Madrid rivals.
Zidane’s men have scored 22 goals in La Liga this season; the joint third highest record in the league but much lower than Barca’s 30. However, their expected goals (xG) stands at 28.95. If they continue to churn out goalscoring chances consistently, expect their goals per game number to rise.
Most of their woes in front of goal have come from a rather surprising source. Cristiano Ronaldo has created a reputation for being one of Europe’s most deadly finishers. Yet in La Liga this season, CR7 has scored just the solitary goal in seven appearances.
Real have been creating chances and it should be expected that their star men will find their scoring boots very soon.
In his seven league appearances this season, Ronaldo has amassed 6.9 shots per game, no player in La Liga has had more shots per game. If Ronaldo can find the clinical nature that saw him notch 25 goals in La Liga last season, then this Saturday may see Real’s La Liga fortune turn, something to definitely consider in the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds.
Real may be helped by the overperforming Atletico this Saturday. Whilst Simeone’s side have conceded just six goals this season, their expected goals against of 11.6 shows just how lucky they have been to prevent these goals.
In front of goal, Atletico have been anything but potent, scoring just 16 goals in 11 matches and five in four home matches.
It could be much worse for Los Rojiblancos however, with an xG tally of just 11.59. If Atletico’s luck in front of goal and preventing their opponents from scoring runs out this Saturday, then Real may just see their push towards Barcelona at the top of the table commence.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds: Where is the value?
Although recent encounters have been low scoring affairs, both sides are showing frailties that haven't been present in their latest clashes.
Simeone’s side have conceded just six goals this season, their expected goals against of 11.6 shows just how lucky they have been to prevent these goals.
As stated, Atletico have been lucky to have such a minute number of goals scored against them in the league this season. Meanwhile, Real have been creating chances and it should be expected that their star men will find their scoring boots very soon.
At the other end, Real’s defence has clear holes and they have struggled at the back in La Liga - although Ateltico have found goals hard to come by, they will confident of creating some chances.
With this in mind, the likelihood of goals may not be at first apparent looking at both side’s recent goal tally, but the likelihood is that either or both strikeforces should find a vein of form soon; so over 2.5 goals at 1.925* could offer some value. It is often claimed that you should disregard form in a derby fixture, but Real Madrid’s odds of 2.830* on a -0.75 will certainly appeal to some bettors.
Alternatively, cards betting will likely be a popular market given the intensity and aggression we often see in this kind of match. The Madrid derby tends to be a rough affair (36 cards in the last six meetings), so bettors may want to consider betting on the number of cards for both sides.