Sep 21, 2017
Sep 21, 2017

La Liga preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla

Live Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds

Two astute defences

Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla betting: Where is the value?

La Liga preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla

Atletico Madrid host Sevilla in La Liga this weekend with both sides in fine form. The odds favour the home team as Atletico look to catch Barcelona at the top of the table. High-flying Sevilla, though, will travel to Madrid with confidence: can they spring a surprise or will Atletico prevail? Read on for Pinnacle’s betting insight.

Live Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds

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Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla betting: Recent games

Two of La Liga’s top five meet this Saturday in what will be the division’s biggest game so far this season; refreshingly, it won’t involve either Barcelona or Real Madrid. Indeed, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla – also two of La Liga’s remaining unbeaten sides – will go head to head at the new Wanda Metropolitano stadium for the first time.

Atletico Madrid have not conceded more than once in a La Liga game since the first day of the campaign, while Sevilla have only scored once in four of their five league games so far.

Sevilla head to the capital in fine form; four wins and one draw have left them just two points behind Barcelona. Atletico, meanwhile, are the form team in Madrid: three wins and two draws have left them three points ahead of Real Madrid following their surprisingly poor start. The Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds right now very much favour Diego Simeone’s hosts.

A big factor is Atletico Madrid’s recent head-to-head record against Sevilla. The visitors have won just one of their last 13 La Liga meetings with Atletico – and that win didn’t come on the road. Sevilla are winless in eight at Atletico’s ground, their last victory coming in 2010. Jesus Navas scored that day and has since returned to the club.

That said, four of those eight results have ended in draws, perhaps offering hope to a Sevilla side that have rarely headed into this fixture with such momentum. 

Elsewhere, another interesting statistic is that the last six La Liga meetings between the two sides to take place at Atletico have seen no less than eight red cards.

Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds: Two astute defences

If any bettors are hoping for a high-scoring game, however, the formbooks would suggest looking elsewhere. Sevilla have the best defence in La Liga so far this term, conceding just once in five games. Atletico, meanwhile, have been notorious for their strength at the back in recent years and aren’t far behind, conceding three times in their opening five matches.

Every single one of Atletico Madrid’s La Liga games this month has been 0-0 at half-time, while Sevilla’s last four league games have been goalless after 45 minutes.

In an intriguing combination, Atletico Madrid have not conceded more than once in a La Liga game since the first day of the campaign, while Sevilla have only scored once in four of their five league games so far. For those who think Atletico can hold out and keep a clean sheet, under 0.5 and 1 Sevilla goals is 2.080*.

But the most fascinating statistic can be found by looking towards the 1st half market for value. Indeed, with odds of under 1 goal before half-time priced at 2.190*, it is pertinent that every single one of Atletico Madrid’s La Liga games this month has been 0-0 at half-time. Sevilla’s last four league games have been goalless after 45 minutes.

Atletico’s new fortress?

Despite Sevilla’s strong form, bettors may struggle to find value in the Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla odds on the money line and even in the handicap market. Atletico are 1.625* to win at full-time, while betting on Atletico at -1 handicap is a difficult choice considering the defensive nature of both sides. Last season, Atletico were the fourth-best team at home in La Liga.

Sevilla, meanwhile, ranked eighth out of 20 for their away form across the whole season. The question bettors should ask is how Atletico Madrid’s new stadium will impact their form. Atletico’s opening match at their new ground brought a 1-0 win against bottom-side Malaga yet Eduardo Berizzo’s men should provide a far sterner test.

Sevilla have travelled exceptionally well so far this term, showing fearlessness at Liverpool in the Champions League and coming away with a 2-2 draw, despite conceding a vast number of shots and chances. In La Liga, though, every team Sevilla have faced currently reside in the bottom half of the table, meaning Atletico will also be their toughest test yet.

Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla betting: Where is the value?

Sevilla are winless in eight at Atletico’s ground, their last victory coming in 2010. Jesus Navas scored that day.

As discussed, it will be difficult for bettors to find a favourable price on the money line or in the handicap market on Saturday unless they are convinced Sevilla can come away with a draw or win. There may, however, be value in the 1st half market and by looking towards the team totals – as mentioned above.

Potential value does lie in the overall totals market with a price of 1.917* for under 2.5 and 3 goals. This may tempt bettors considering Sevilla’s low-scoring season to date, combined with the fact both sides have conceded just five goals in 10 games between them. Alternatively, over 2.5 and 3 goals is 1.980*.

Of course, anything can happen in La Liga - something Real Betis proved with aplomb by winning at Real Madrid on Wednesday night. But bettors should expect a tactical affair that showcases two astute defences on Saturday.

Odds subject to change

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