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Aug 16, 2019

Outright La Liga betting: 2019/20 La Liga preview

Making 2019/20 La Liga predictions

2019/20 projected La Liga table

Using expected points to predict the La Liga table

Who will win La Liga?

Outright La Liga betting: 2019/20 La Liga preview

Where is the value in Pinnacle’s La Liga outright betting odds? This article uses Pinnacle’s projected points to predict the top of the La Liga table. Who will win the 2019/20 La Liga title? Read on to inform your outright La Liga betting.

La Liga table predictions 19/20

According to Pinnacle’s projected La Liga points the predicted La Liga top six looks like this:

La Liga predicted table

La Liga predicted table

Team

19/20 Projected points

17/18 points

Change

Barcelona

90.5

87

+3.5

Real Madrid

85.5

68

+17.5

Atletico Madrid

75.5

76

-0.5

Valencia

63.5

61

+2.5

Sevilla

60.5

59

+1.5

Villarreal

58.5

44

+14.5

Pinnacle’s projections suggest Real Madrid and Villarreal are in line for heavy improvement this season whilst the other teams should perform broadly as they did last season.

Making La Liga season predictions

Expected points calculated by expected goals alongside some contextual analysis can provide a good indication of how fortunate a team has been compared to their underlying metrics, which is useful for spotting potential value in betting markets.

La Liga 17/18 points vs. expected points

La Liga 17/18 points vs. expected points

Team

17/18 points

17/18 expected points

Difference

Barcelona

87

73.96

13.04

Atletico Madrid

76

64.77

11.23

Real Madrid

68

59.43

8.57

Valencia

61

65.16

-4.16

Getafe

59

53.19

5.81

Sevilla

59

65.08

-6.08

Espanyol

53

50.09

2.91

Athletic Bilbao

53

50.01

2.99

Real Sociedad

50

51.13

-1.13

Real Betis

50

52.39

-2.39

Alaves

50

44.02

5.98

Eibar

47

56.75

-9.75

Leganes

45

51.15

-6.15

Villarreal

44

52.18

-8.18

Levante

44

40.23

3.77

Real Valladolid

41

41.8

-0.8

Celta Vigo

41

41.63

-0.63

The top three teams stand out here since they exceeded their expected points significantly last season. This is perhaps to be expected considering the quality of their personal and tactical setups.

Atletico are known to consistently perform out of line with their underlying expected goals stats, whilst Barca possess finishers of the quality of Lionel Messi and Ousmane Dembele who consistently score more than their xG statistics.

Lionel Messi expected goals vs. goals scored

Lionel Messi expected goals vs goals scored title

Season

Expected Goals

Goals scored

2018/19

26.00

36

2017/18

28.95

34

2016/17

26.89

37

Villarreal underperformed their expected numbers significantly perhaps giving an indication as to why Pinnacle’s projected points expect them to improve this season.

Eibar are the other side who should perhaps be expected to improve, however they have lost Joan Jordan to Sevilla which may hinder this to some extent though.

Unlike Villarreal, Real Madrid’s expected improvement cannot be attributed to their underlying performances. Their lowly total of 59.43 expected points was actually only good enough for the fifth best in the league for that metric. The projected points are likely factoring transfer market additions improving the side over any regression to the mean.

Outright La Liga betting: Who will win La liga?

Barcelona are 1.537* favourites to retain their La Liga title with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid their only realistic challengers.

Barcelona have strengthened significantly this summer with the addition of World Cup winner Antoine Griezmann from rivals Atleti. The Frenchman is an established La Liga star and bolsters the league’s strongest attack whilst weakening a direct rival.

It says a lot about the quality of fellow new arrival Frenkie De Jong that he may have the bigger impact of the two marquee signings. The Dutchman is a supremely talented ball progressor who will have no problem transitioning play to the dangerous Griezmann, Suarez, Dembele and Messi, whilst also performing his defensive duties. His addition should breathe new life into the Barca midfield.

With such strong additions to a squad that was so dominant lasts season, it is hard to look beyond Barcelona for the title. Real Madrid will hope to challenge them and have recruited strongly with the captures of Luca Jovic, Eden Hazard and Ferland Mendy, amongst others.

Despite an overall stronger-looking squad they are yet to improve in the key midfield positions where Kroos, Modric and Casemiro struggled at times last season. This is an area of the team that will be seen as a weakness compared to their more dynamic Barcelona counterparts, unless Florentino Perez can strengthen before the end of the window.

Their underlying statistics from last season certainly don’t suggest they can win the title, so the new signings will need to have a big impact.

Despite their status as 13.230* outsiders, and loss of star men Griezmann and Rodri, there is a lot of positivity surrounding Atletico Madrid ahead of the start of the season. Joao Felix completed a big money transfer and looks set to take up Griezmann’s role in the team alongside other interesting signings.

The big defeat of Real Madrid in preseason shows what the team may be capable of but they will have to be superb to keep up with Barcelona over the course of a 38-game season.

Pinnacle’s projected points predict Barcelona winning the league by a comfortable margin with Atletico Madrid trailing their city rival by ten points. Whilst Barcelona do look like good value to retain their championship, perhaps a new look Atletico can push Real Madrid more closely for second place than the projected points suggest.

Bettors who wish to remove the unknown element of Atletico from the equation can back Barcelona to finish higher than Real Madrid at 1.454*.

Bet with Pinnacle for the best La Liga odds ahead of the 2019/20 season and read our weekly La Liga predictions for insight into the odds.

Odds subject to change

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