Inter Milan play Napoli in this weekend’s big Serie A match. Looking for value in the Inter Milan vs. Napoli odds? Read on to inform your Inter Milan vs. Napoli prediction.
A close look at the Inter Milan vs. Napoli odds
Napoli are looking to recover from their recent loss to AS Roma and the odds suggest there is a greater than 40% chance of them winning this game.
Inter Milan are a strong side at home and this is reflected by odds of 1.421* on the Inter +1 handicap.
Inter Milan vs. Napoli stats: What you need to know
Time: Sunday March 11, 19:45 GMT kickoff
Venue: San Siro Stadium
Inter Milan: No major issues.
Napoli: Left-back Faouzi Ghoulam (injury) remains Napoli’s only major absentee.
- Inter Milan’s Serie A home record: nine wins, four draws, one loss
- Napoli’s are undefeated away in Serie A (12 wins, one draw)
- Inter have won just two of their last 11 Serie A matches
- Defeat to AS Roma last time out ended Napoli’s run of eleven games unbeaten in Serie A
- Dries Mertens has scored seven goals in his last seven Serie A appearances (17 goals total)
- Mauro Icardi has scored just one goal in his previous five league games (18 goals total)
- Napoli have kept 15 cleansheets in 27 Serie A games
Inform your Inter Milan vs. Napoli prediction
Inter Milan welcome title challengers Napoli to the San Siro for a game which could have a big impact on the Scudetto race.
After a great start to the season Inter Milan endured a run of just two wins in eleven matches and now find themselves fifth in the table.
In this time Napoli won ten games in a row before their fantastic run of form was ended by Roma at the San Paolo. The Neopolitans are yet to lose away from home and have won all but one of their games away from Naples.
It was somewhat of a surprise to see Napoli’s previously solid defence allow Roma to score three goals in last weekend’s match. They were conceding at a rate of 0.58 goals per game prior which suggests that the poor performance was a blip rather than an indication of defensive frailty.
Inter Milan’s own defence has maintained its strong record despite their poor overall form. They concede less than a goal per game on average and goalkeeper Samir Handamovic has yet to allow more than two goals past him in a single match this season.
The form of Inter’s attack is where their recent issues have stemmed from. Argentine Mauro Icardi scored 17 goals his first 17 league games but has returned just one in his last five matches. Ivan Perisic also began the season brightly but has failed to score since early December.
Napoli’s attack continues to prosper and Dries Mertens has overtaken Icardi in the Serie A goalscoring charts. The Belgian has scored seven goals in seven games and is showing no signs of slowing down. Jose Callejon and Lorenzo Insigne also provide a significant attacking threat.
Inter Milan vs. Napoli: Where is the value?
Napoli need to win this game and they should do so fairly comfortably.
The Neopolitans have been in tremendous form and the loss to Roma was not due to a poor performance from the league leaders but exceptional finishing from their opponents. Roma scored their four goals from 1.74 xG whilst Napoli managed two strikes from 2.29 xG.
Inter cannot rely on Napoli being inefficient in front of goal but their strong defence should ensure that the game remains close.
The previous Serie A match between the two sides ended 0-0 so a high scoring match seems unlikely. Under 2.5 goals to be scored is available at 1.877* and could represent value.
With Icardi and Perisic in poor form odds of 1.781* on Inter to fail to score in the match could present an opportunity given the likelihood of Napoli securing their sixteenth clean sheet of the season.
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