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Jan 15, 2018
Jan 15, 2018

Serie A Preview: Inter Milan vs. Roma

Inter Milan and Roma's poor form

The importance of attack speed

Inter Milan vs. Roma live odds

Serie A Preview: Inter Milan vs. Roma

Inter Milan and Roma entered the Serie A winter break in poor form with dropped points harming their title challenges. Both will need wins to get their season back on track. Where is the value in the Inter Milan vs. As Roma odds? Read on for the information you need to make your own Inter Milan vs. Roma prediction.

Inter Milan vs. AS Roma live odds

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Inter vs. Roma: Poor form makes this game hard to predict

After great starts both inter and Roma enter this game in their worst form of the season. Inter have failed to win any of their last five games. They have only managed to score two goals across those five games and the points dropped have most likely ended their title challenges.

Roma have not won in three games and both teams have fallen behind Juventus and Napoli at the top of the table. They have also fallen behind city rivals Lazio and will need to rediscover their potency in attack after only scoring four goals in their last four games.

Inter Milan are now five games without a win and will be concerned by their poor record at home. Internazionale have failed to score in their last three games at the San Siro.

The two sides are still outperforming their expected number of points, so their most recent results may have merely moved them closer to their natural position in the table. Despite this, the teams should be fresh after the two week Serie A break.

This game could set a strong precedent for the second half of their seasons. How the sides recover from their recent setbacks will have a big impact at the top of Serie A.

Inter Milan vs Roma: Attack Speed

Attack speed is hugely important in soccer and how often the two sides can launch threatening fast attacks could have a big impact on the game.

Both Inter Milan and Roma usually dominate games, averaging 54.2% and 57% of possession respectively. They score most of their goals from normal paced attacks where they have retained possession of the ball for a period of time.

Inter Milan attack speed

Inter Milan Attack Speed

Attack Speed

Shots For

Goals For

Shots Against

Goals Against

Slow

19

1

10

0

Normal

199

22

166

9

Fast

12

0

23

3

 AS Roma attack speed

AS Roma Attack Speed

Attack Speed

Shots For

Goals For

Shots Against

Goals Against

Slow

22

0

9

0

Normal

228

19

161

8

Fast

13

2

13

2

Roma have scored 2 goals in 13 shots from fast attacks. They do not often have the opportunity to break at pace but when they do they are deadly. In a big away game like this they will hope to have more chances to counter-attack than usual.

In contrast, Inter Milan have yet to score from a fast attack this season. The Milan side have also conceded three goals from 23 shots from fast attacks. This suggests a potential weakness to the counterattack that Roma will be eager to exploit.

Unsurprisingly, both teams are adept at defending both normal and slow-paced attacks. Inter Milan’s attack thrives when they can present Mauro Icardi with good quality opportunities. Roma will need to be watchful and prevent any big opportunities from falling to the Argentine. Edin Dzeko leads Roma’s attack and has a shot-happy style of play. The Bosnian has attempted 4.92 shots per 90 minutes played this season so far and has shot more than twice as often from outside the penalty area as Inter’s Icardi.

In a game of fine margins, one efficient attack could alter the course of the game. Roma’s ability to counterattack when Inter Milan are high up the pitch could provide opportunities for Dzeko. AS Roma will have to be cautious if they do give up possession, however. Icardi has proven himself to be more than capable of converting a well-worked opportunity into a goal.

Inter Milan vs. Roma odds: Where is the value?

This Sunday’s match sees two out of form teams attempting to get their season back on track. Inter Milan will have home advantage but need to be cautious not to over commit to the attack and leave space for a fast Roma attack.

Despite their recent struggles, Inter Milan are favourites to win the match. They will need to keep the game low-scoring to achieve this. With both teams strong at defending slow and normal paced attacks under 2.75 goals to be scored could offer value at 2.020*.

A high scoring game is likely to favour the Rome side. If Inter go on the offensive to try and make the most of their home advantage then the Roman attack could exploit any gaps. The Roma +0.5 handicap is available at 1.636* which may offer value to betters.

Odds subject to change

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