Nov 1, 2016
Nov 1, 2016

How new rules in soccer impact Premier League betting

How new rules in soccer impact Premier League betting
Before the start of the 2016/17 Premier League season, there were some drastic changes made to the laws of the game. These new rules could increase the number of penalties and bookings in a game, as well as reduce the number of red cards throughout the season. Read on to find out about these new rules and their potential impact on Premier League betting.

After 18 months of discussions, the International Football Association Board (IFAB) announced more than 95 alterations to the rules of soccer - some of which were trialled at Euro 2016. While the direction the ball moves from the kick-off, the colour of players’ undergarments and injuries being treated on the pitch won’t directly affect betting, some of these new rules will.

Grappling in the penalty area

“Grappling” - defined by the English Football Association as anything that includes shirt pulling, blocking and/or obstruction - is a rule being more actively enforced by Premier League referees. Although not exclusive to corners and free kicks, this infringement most commonly occurs in the penalty area during set pieces.

So far this season, 31 penalties have been awarded in the Premier League. Six of these penalties have been awarded for “grappling” in the penalty area. Smart bettors might consider this increase in the likelihood of a penalty being awarded in a match and it’s impact on the total number of goals.

Although it isn’t a massive increase, if referees continue to enforce this rule, it would contribute a projected 25 additional penalties throughout the season. This gives an end of season projection of 131 penalties in the Premier League - exactly 25 more than the record of 106 penalties in the 2009/10 season.

End of the triple punishment rule

Denying a goal scoring opportunity in the Premier League was previously punished by awarding a penalty, giving a red card to whoever committed the foul and that player serving a subsequent three-game suspension - hence the name “triple punishment”. However, that rule has now changed.

This change may result in fewer red cards throughout the season and could potentially alter teams' chances of being disadvantaged by a sending off.

In instances where the denial of a goal scoring opportunity isn’t intentional - if the referee deems it to be accidental - the player committing the foul will only receive a yellow card. A penalty will still be awarded but whoever committed the foul won’t be removed from the game and given a suspension.

There have been eight red cards shown in the Premier League so far. This gives a projection of 34 red cards for this season - considerably less than the 59 in 2015/16, 71 in 2014/15 and 53 in 2013/14. This change may result in fewer red cards throughout the season and could potentially alter teams' chances of being disadvantaged by a sending off.

Player behaviour

Player’s attitude towards referees has been a longstanding issue in soccer. Verbal dissent is classed as arguing with the referee, running to contest a decision and being disrespectful towards officials - any instance of which is punished with a yellow card. Confronting officials in an aggressive manner or using insulting and/or offensive language will result in a straight red card.

Yellow cards can be of significant value in terms of a betting model for numerous reasons. Two yellow cards in one game is a sending off and a cumulative total of five and ten yellow cards resulting in a one-game ban are two obvious examples. Bettors should also think about the changes in playing style, tactics and substitutions that come about because of a booking.

As of game week 10 in the Premier League, 337 yellow cards have been shown - giving a projected total of 1,423 total yellow cards. This is a vast increase from the 1,185 in 2015/16, 1,359 in 2014/15 and 1,015 in 2013/14.

While these new rules are only in their infancy in Premier League, it is worth making consideration for them and continuing to analyse the impact they could have on betting. Being able to quantify any potential impact would give bettors an edge over bookmakers and ultimately, provide a means to increase profit.

Get the best odds on total goals and bookings in the Premier League at Pinnacle, the ultimate bookmaker with the lowest margins and highest limits.

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