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Two weeks ago
Nov 30, 2018

Half Time/Full Time betting strategy analysed

What is Half Time/Full Time betting?

Half Time/Full Time betting strategy

Making Half time/Full Time predictions

Half Time/Full Time stats

Half Time/Full Time betting strategy analysed

Soccer is often referred to as a game of two halves and Half time/Full time betting is no different. What is Half Time/Full Time betting? Can bettors construct a profitable Half Time/Full Time betting strategy? Why are bookmaker margins important? Read on to to inform your Half Time/Full Time predictions.

What is Half Time/Full Time betting?

Half Time/Full Time betting involves placing a bet on both the half time result and the full time result of a match in combination.

A bet on the home team to win both halves is written as home team/home team whilst a bet on the away team to win the first half but go on to lose the game is written away team/home team.

Half Time/Full Time stats: Half Time/Full Time results in the Premier League

A breakdown of how often a combination of half time result and full time result occurs in the Premier League can be found below:

Premier League Half Time/Full Time results (2013/14-2017/18)

Premier League Half Time/Full Time results

Half time result

Full time result

Percentage

Home

Home

27.79%

Away

Away

16.74%

Draw

Draw

15.89%

Draw

Home

15.42%

Draw

Away

11.53%

Home

Draw

4.63%

Away

Draw

4.00%

Away

Home

2.16%

Home

Away

1.84%

In the Premier League the most common Half Time/Full Time combination is a home win at half time ultimately resulting in a home win at full time. This result has occurred in over a quarter of games over the past five Premier League seasons.

How often do home teams win when leading at half time?

Full time result after half time home win

Full time result after half time home win

Half time result

Full time result

Percentage

Home

Home

81.11%

Home

Draw

13.52%

Home

Away

5.38%

When the home team is leading at half time they go on to win 81.11% of the time. This reflects that comebacks by away sides are reasonably rare. An away team coming from behind at the half to win the game occurs in only 5.38% of matches.

Full time result after half time draw

Full time result after half time draw

Half time result

Full time result

Percentage

Draw

Home

36%

Draw

Draw

37.10%

Draw

Away

26.90%

As you may expect a drawn game at half time leads to a more even spread of full time results. This makes sense since a level score-line at the half suggests a close matchup.

After a drawn first half, a draw is the most common final result, however home teams go on to win over a third of such matches. Perhaps their home field advantage eventually proves the difference maker in close games.

Full time result after halftime away win

Full time result after half time away win

Full time result after half time away win

Half time result

Full time result

Percentage

Away

Home

9.43%

Away

Draw

17.47%

Away

Away

73.10%

As with home teams winning the half, away teams who lead at halftime usually hold on to or extend their lead.

Once again though, home advantage plays a part. Home teams secure positive results from losing positions over 25% of the time. Home teams complete a second half comeback win 75% more often than away sides.

Half Time/Full Time betting: What should bettors consider?

One thing all bettors should be aware of is the existence of the bookmaker’s margin. Whilst this margin varies across bookmakers it also changes depending on the market selected by the bettor.

As an example, these were the odds on offer on the Half Time/Full Time market at one bookmaker prior to a Burnley vs. Newcastle Premier League match.

Burnley vs. Newcastle Half Time/Full Time odds

Burnley vs. Newcastle Half Time/Full Time odds

Outcome

Odds

Implied probability

Burnley/Burnley

4.5

22.22%

Draw/Burnley

6.5

15.38%

Newcastle/Burnley

41

2.44%

Burnley/Draw

17

5.88%

Draw/Draw

4.5

22.22%

Newcastle/Draw

17

5.88%

Burnley/Newcastle

34

2.94%

Draw/ Newcastle

6

16.67%

Newcastle/Newcastle

4.5

22.22%

Total

115.86

The bookmaker margin on the Half Time/Full Time market for this match is 15.86%. Assuming the margin is spread evenly across the market (which is not always the case), each selection has a margin of 1.76%.

These are the odds on the half time result and full time result markets on the same match at Pinnacle.

Burnley vs. Newcastle half time result odds

Burnley vs. Newcastle half time result odds

Outcome first half

Odds

Implied probability (%)

Burnley

3.81

26.25

Newcastle

3.54

28.25

Draw

2.08

48.08

Total

/

102.57

Burnley vs. Newcastle full time result odds

Burnley vs. Newcastle full time result odds

Outcome full time

Odds

Implied Probability (%)

Burnley

3.01

33.22

Newcastle

2.71

36.90

Draw

3.16

31.65

Total

 

101.77

The first half market has a bookmaker margin of 2.57% whilst the full time market has a margin of 1.77%. Again assuming the margins are spread evenly across the market each selection has a margin of 0.85% for the first half result and 0.59% for the full time result.

As you can see this margin is much lower than the one present on the Half Time/Full Time betting market. Unless bettors can find a specific edge on Half Time/Full Time betting then they are likely to be better off betting on each half individually.

Half Time/ Full Time betting strategy

Once again using the Burnley vs Newcastle match as an example we can compare the implied probability of a half time full time result occurring with the league average.

Burnley vs. Newcastle Half Time/Full Time odds

Burnley vs. Newcastle Half Time/Full Time Odds

Outcome

Odds

Implied probability

League average

Burnley/Burnley

4.5

22.22%

27.79%

Draw/Burnley

6.5

15.38%

15.42%

Newcastle/Burnley

41

2.44%

2.16%

Burnley/Draw

17

5.88%

4.63%

Draw/Draw

4.5

22.22%

15.89%

Newcastle/Draw

17

5.88%

4.00%

Burnley/Newcastle

34

2.94%

1.84%

Draw/ Newcastle

6

16.67%

11.53%

Newcastle/Newcastle

4.5

22.22%

16.74%

In this case the Draw/Draw, Burnley/Newcastle, Draw/ Newcastle and Newcastle/Newcastle outcomes are rated to be significantly more likely to occur than the league average. This is likely to simply be a result of to the nature of the match since the away side are rated as favourites to win the game.

However, this does not mean there are not opportunities available to bettors who can find teams who perform abnormally at different stages of matches. Perhaps the betting market has not incorporated the fact that one team may be fast starters or slow finishers.

An edge could also be present around match-ups where the bettor predicts one side will be stronger than estimated by the betting market, although it would probably be advisable for such bettors to bet the Money Line or Asian Handicap markets instead due to a lower margin.

Do Half Time/Full Time results vary between leagues?

La Liga, Serie A and Premier League Half Time/Full Time results

League

DH

HH

HD

HA

DD

DA

AA

AD

AH

Premier League

15.79%

27.11%

5.53%

1.95%

15.42%

10.95%

17.37%

3.68%

2.16%

La Liga

15.05%

30.16%

4.37%

1.58%

14.74%

10.58%

17.47%

4.26%

1.79%

Serie A

15.42%

27.79%

4.63%

1.84%

15.89%

11.53%

16.74%

4.00%

2.16%

Over the five seasons from 2013/14 to 2017/18 the Half Time/Full Time results across the big three European leagues are comparable. Notably La Liga contains around 17% less Away/Home and around 18% fewer Home/Away results compared to the other two leagues. Perhaps second half comebacks are less likely to occur in La Liga.

Making Half Time/Full Time predictions

The league, historical results, team form and how teams approach difference stages of the match are all relevant for making Half Time/Full Time predictions. Bettors attempting to create a successful Half Time/Full time betting strategy have a variety of angles to consider.

Although higher bookmaker margins may deter bettors who would benefit more from applying their strategy to betting on half time and full time results in isolation, this does not mean that bettors should necessarily be deterred from Half Time/Full Time betting.

Perhaps the percentage of Half Time/Full Time results is not adequately reflected by the odds in smaller leagues, or maybe a favourite-longshot bias is prevalent in this market that has yet to be exploited.

The larger margins could indicate this market may be less efficient and reflect that value could be available for a prepared bettor. It is essential to make sure this is the case before opting for Half Time/ Full Time betting over the Money Line or half betting markets.

Make sure to calculate expected value to find a profitable edge and read more of our betting strategy articles to learn essential betting knowledge.

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