Girona play Real Madrid in the La Liga game of the week. Looking for value in the Girona vs Real Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Girona vs. Real Madrid prediction.
A close look at the Girona vs. Real Madrid odds
The Money Line odds make Real Madrid clear favourites to win the match.
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Time: Sunday August 26 16:00 UTC kickoff
Venue: Estadi Montilivi
Girona vs Real Madrid predicted lineups
Girona predicted lineup
4-3-3 Bono; Muniesa, Juanpe, Espinosa, Porro; Garcia, Pons, Granell; Garcia, Syuani, Portu
Mojica misses out through injury
Real Madrid predicted lineup4-3-3 Navas; Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Kroos, Casemiro, Modric; Bale, Benzema, Isco
Inform your Girona vs. Real Madrid prediction
One of last season’s surprise packages host a Real Madrid side entering the post-Ronaldo era in Sunday’s match from the second round of La Liga fixtures.
Girona secured a top half finish last season and shocked Real in this fixture last campaign, outscoring the European Champions by 2.26 expected goals to 1.58 for a deserved 2-1 victory.
This was no fluke as Catalan side’s numbers were consistently strong last season and they actually slightly underperformed their expected points despite their impressive positon on the table. They have kept most of that successful side together and were unfortunate not to defeat Real Valladolid in their opening La Liga fixture.
In contrast, their opponents are much changed from the 2017/18 campaign. New coach Julen Lopetegui has replaced Zinedine Zidane whilst Cristiano Ronaldo ended his nine-year Real Madrid career. The change in style of the side as a result of those changes was evident in the opening win over Getafe.
In that match Real controlled 78% of the possession which was more than they have had in any fixture since 2012. Toni Kroos alone attempted 119 passes, completing 98% of them, and those kind of figures are to be expected as Lopetegui transitions the team towards the pass heavy attack utilised by his Spain side.
Despite Real’s dominance last week this could be a tough fixture for them. Girona were often excellent against supposedly far superior opponents last season. The underlying numbers suggest that, despite taking points from Real, Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, they were perhaps unfortunate not to achieve better results against high-quality opponents.
The hosts are among La Liga’s best teams at preventing the opposition from reaching their defensive third so the success of Madrid’s transition towards patient possession play will be put to the test here.
Another reason why Girona were successful last season was their ability to score from set pieces. The Catalans are dead-ball specialists and scored 17 goals from set plays last season.
They are also not afraid to attack strong opposition. Last season Girona scored five goals across their two fixtures against Sunday’s opponents. Real will need to be wary of overcommitting in attack.
Girona vs. Real Madrid: Where is the value?
Girona proved themselves to be worthy adversaries last season and look similarly effective this campaign so could offer a tempting price to bettors on the Money Line odds. Bettors should be wary of the favourite-longshot bias that could be price into the market around such a fixture however.
A bet which could offer greater value is the Girona +2 handicap at 1.490*. The host’s style of play is well suited to frustrating strong teams. They covered this handicap in 15 of their 18 La Liga home games during the 2017/18 season.
The home side are available at 2.030* to score over 0.75 goals. Given the defensive problems they have previously caused Real Madrid, the hosts could offer value if they can replicate lasts season’s strong performances.
To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.