Fantasy soccer has experienced a sharp rise over the last decade with millions of new virtual managers mauling over statistics each week eager to gain an edge. The analysis involved in fantasy soccer has strong resemblances with betting handicapping, so success in the fantasy soccer world may possibly lead to a positive return in the real world of betting. Read on to find out how playing fantasy soccer can help inform your betting predictions.
Utilise the time you spend on fantasy soccer
The title “fantasy” in fantasy soccer (or fantasy football, as it’s known in Europe) is quite misrepresentative. Both fantasy soccer and soccer betting are based around solid statistics.
For example, player values are not just made up spontaneously; they are shaped from refined and educated calculations that take into consideration a host of statistics relating to a certain player, with the player’s price displaying how well he is expected to perform over the coming season.
With an abundance of (mainly free) data available in fantasy soccer, it is a great way to practice your statistical analysis, and also help your approach to making informed and polished betting decisions when the time comes to part with real money.
Make use of stats databases
There is now an overabundance of data available on fantasy soccer websites which can also assist your sports betting choices. When placing a bet you are ultimately trying to predict the future outcome – much like fantasy soccer - and the benefits of using data to try and do this can’t be ignored.
All bettors and fantasy soccer players have displayed their opinions regarding a players’ abilities, whether it be on social media or when congregating with friends. The truth is there is no real way we can accurately observe every player and attribute them a value. But, thanks to fantasy soccer, accurate data is now easily accessible to inform bettors about the performance of teams and individual players.
Expected goals (xG) data is also readily available online. This metric is continually being used in soccer analytics and soccer betting with proven benefits. Expected goals can be largely beneficial to bettors and fantasy soccer players due to the fact it places a value on chance quality rather than goals scored (something that can be heavily influenced by randomness).
It might be a bet on the top goal scorer in the Premier League or who you make your captain in your fantasy team, using expected goals can tell us more about player performance than other commonly used metrics (actual goals, total shots, shots on target etc.). When using expecting goals models to inform your decision, it’s very important to ensure the output of these models is as accurate as possible.
Knowledge is power -
data fantasy soccer advice driven
Like betting, top fantasy players
Tapping into freely available data is a great way to advance your awareness of both soccer betting and helping with your fantasy soccer selections so that in the long run help you make more informed decisions instead of going with your hunch.
Try to avoid purchasing low-cost defenders (under £4.5m). These “bargains” only average 2.85 points a game. This is far inferior to the second lowest point scorers (midfielders under £6.5m, average 3.09 points per match).
It is intelligent to choose full-backs (preferably more attacking ones) over
Wingers on average in the 2017/18 season scored more points than central midfielders. Wide men last season accumulated on average 4.16 points a game, while central midfielders produced a return of just 3.42. Additionally having multiple penalty/set piece takers will only increase your likelihood of outsmarting your friends
Compare odds to player pricing to make informed selections
There are many examples to follow for fantasy soccer players to make informed decisions. Although there are numerous variables to consider, it would be a shrewd tactic to follow the bookmaker’s odds to make your selections.
In order to identify value when placing a bet bettors will need to decide their own probability of an event occurring. So, by comparing bookmaker’s odds for the Premier League top goalscorer market
For example, if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Arsenal is, on average, the third-lowest odds to be the Premier League top goalscorer with bookmakers yet is priced as the fifth highest valued striker in the fantasy soccer pricing ladder, this may suggest he is a value pick.
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