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Aug 7, 2018
Aug 7, 2018

The similarities between Fantasy Premier League and betting

Using expected goals to make Fantasy Premier League predictions

Inform your Fantasy Premier League predictions for season 2018/19

Why is data important when making Fantasy Soccer predictions?

The similarities between Fantasy Premier League and betting

Fantasy soccer has experienced a sharp rise over the last decade with millions of new virtual managers mauling over statistics each week eager to gain an edge. The analysis involved in fantasy soccer has strong resemblances with betting handicapping, so success in the fantasy soccer world may possibly lead to a positive return in the real world of betting. Read on to find out how playing fantasy soccer can help inform your betting predictions.

Utilise the time you spend on fantasy soccer

The title “fantasy” in fantasy soccer (or fantasy football, as it’s known in Europe) is quite misrepresentative. Both fantasy soccer and soccer betting are based around solid statistics.

For example, player values are not just made up spontaneously; they are shaped from refined and educated calculations that take into consideration a host of statistics relating to a certain player, with the player’s price displaying how well he is expected to perform over the coming season.

With an abundance of (mainly free) data available in fantasy soccer, it is a great way to practice your statistical analysis, and also help your approach to making informed and polished betting decisions when the time comes to part with real money.

Make use of stats databases

There is now an overabundance of data available on fantasy soccer websites which can also assist your sports betting choices. When placing a bet you are ultimately trying to predict the future outcome – much like fantasy soccer - and the benefits of using data to try and do this can’t be ignored.

All bettors and fantasy soccer players have displayed their opinions regarding a players’ abilities, whether it be on social media or when congregating with friends. The truth is there is no real way we can accurately observe every player and attribute them a value. But, thanks to fantasy soccer, accurate data is now easily accessible to inform bettors about the performance of teams and individual players.

Expected goals (xG) data is also readily available online. This metric is continually being used in soccer analytics and soccer betting with proven benefits. Expected goals can be largely beneficial to bettors and fantasy soccer players due to the fact it places a value on chance quality rather than goals scored (something that can be heavily influenced by randomness).

It might be a bet on the top goal scorer in the Premier League or who you make your captain in your fantasy team, using expected goals can tell us more about player performance than other commonly used metrics (actual goals, total shots, shots on target etc.). When using expecting goals models to inform your decision, it’s very important to ensure the output of these models is as accurate as possible.

Read: An analysis of different expected goals models

Knowledge is power - data driven fantasy soccer advice

Like betting, top fantasy players analyse and crunch numbers in search of an edge whilst substandard or inexperienced players go with their gut instinct or make one-dimensional and inexperienced decisions.

Tapping into freely available data is a great way to advance your awareness of both soccer betting and helping with your fantasy soccer selections so that in the long run help you make more informed decisions instead of going with your hunch.

Read: How to make accurate soccer predictions.

When analysing some of this data 3-4-3 is the most attractive formation. Averaging 50.5 points per game, managers should look to a 3-4-3 for season-long success. The 5-4-1 formation might be one to avoid, accumulating an average score of 46.2 points per game

Try to avoid purchasing low-cost defenders (under £4.5m). These “bargains” only average 2.85 points a game. This is far inferior to the second lowest point scorers (midfielders under £6.5m, average 3.09 points per match).

It is intelligent to choose full-backs (preferably more attacking ones) over centre-backs. Averaging 3.33 a match, full-backs outperform centre-backs, who average 3.17 points a game. Selecting attacking wing-backs rather than central defenders in your line-up will also help you rack up additional points on your rivals throughout the season.

Wingers on average score more points than central midfielders. Wide men last season accumulated on average 4.16 points a game, while central midfielders produced a return of just 3.42. Additionally having multiple penalty/set piece takers will only increase your likelihood of outsmarting your friends come the end of the season.

Compare odds to player pricing to make informed selections

There are many examples to follow for fantasy soccer players to make informed decisions. Although there are numerous variables to consider, it would be a shrewd tactic to follow the bookmaker’s odds to make your selections.

In order to identify value when placing a bet bettors will need to decide their own probability of an event occurring. So, by comparing bookmaker’s odds for the Premier League top goalscorer market for example, managers will get a more well-defined logic to how well a player is likely to perform.

For example, if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Arsenal is, on average, the third-lowest odds to be the Premier League top goalscorer with bookmakers yet is priced as the fifth highest valued striker in the fantasy soccer pricing ladder, this may suggest he is a value pick.

The Pinnacle Fantasy Soccer league


For all up-and-coming aspiring managers, as the new season approaches Fantasy Premier League brings meaning and substance to every single match over an action-packed season, and Pinnacle have you covered.

The Pinnacle Fantasy Soccer League is now open to all (Pinnacle customers and non-Pinnacle customers). With season long prizes up for grabs. The first gameweek of the season starts Friday, August 10, with the deadline for transfers at 6pm (UTC). Until then you have unlimited free transfers to create your squad.

Forwards (Strikers) get four points for a goal, midfielders get five and defenders/goalkeepers get six.It is three points for an assist for any player, while goalkeepers/defenders get four points for a clean sheet and midfielders get one. Goalkeepers accumulate one point for every three saves they make, and five if they save a penalty. Scoring an own goal will also cost you two points.

Bonus points are awarded in each match played for the top performing players (based on stats provided by Opta). Players can lose points for yellow cards, red cards or missing penalties. Playing over 60 minutes in a game obtains your player two points, and playing under 60 minutes secures one point.

To join the league visit: https://fantasy.premierleague.com/

Enter the league code: 2663264-608603

Now you’re all set don’t forget to get the best Premier League odds and betting advice all season long with Pinnacle.

Sign up here to make the most of Pinnacle’s value betting.

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