May 14, 2018
May 14, 2018

Europa League final preview: Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid

Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid odds

Inform your Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

Analysing the Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid stats

Europa League final analysis

Europa League final preview: Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid

Marseille play Atletico Madrid in Wednesday’s UEFA Europa League final. Looking for value in the Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid odds

The moneyline odds imply Atletico Madrid are likely to lift the trophy. The favourites are also available at 1.699* to win within 90 minutes.

Marseille are not expected to overly trouble Atletico’s formidable defence. The French side are available at 1.775* to score in 90 minutes.

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TimeWednesday May 16, 20:45 GMT kickoff                             

Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (neutral)

Team news and predicted lineups

Marseille predicted lineup: Mandanda; Sarr, Rami, Luiz Gustavo, Amavi; Sanson, Lopez; Thauvin, Payet, Ocampos; Germain

Striker Konstantinos Mitroglou is an injury doubt, he could be replaced in the lineup by Valere Germain. Rolando is also doubtful with a calf injury. Dimitri Payet and Bouna Sarr picked up minor injuries during the week but should be fit for the final.

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup: Oblak; Vrsaljko, Savić, Godín, Lucas; Koke, Saúl Ñíguez, Gabi, Correa; Griezmann, Costa 

Filipe Luis returned from injury in Atleti’s weekend fixture and will challenge Lucas Hernandez for a starting spot. Sime Virsajlko returns from his semi-final suspension. Jose Giminez is doubtful with a recurring back injury.

Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid stats: What you need to know

  • Marseille have won just a single European away game this season (one win, three draws, five losses)
  • Atletico Madrid were one of eight teams entering the competition form the Champions League group stage
  • Florent Thauvin averages a goal every 224 minutes in the Europa League compared to one every 131 minutes in Ligue 1
  • Dimitri Payet leads the competition in assists (7)
  • Atleti have kept five clean sheets in nine Europa League matches
  • Diego Costa has averaged a goal every 74 minutes in the Europa League knockout stages

Inform your Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid prediction

It’s a big matchup in the Europa League final as the 1994 European Champions Marseille take on an Atletico Madrid side that have been to two of the last three Champions League finals.

This will be Marseille’s first European final since the 2-0 loss to Valencia in 2004. Atletico, in contrast, possess a formidable European record. This will be their fifth appearance in a European final in the past decade.

Diego Simeone’s side suffered a disappointing Champions League campaign which saw them relegated to this competition as one of the third-place finishers. This poor performance was influenced by the transfer ban placed upon the club preventing them from registering new players until January 2018.

You only need to look at the presence of January addition Diego Costa in the starting eleven to see how new additions have improved Atleti.

Costa has scored two goals in his four Europa League appearances, including the winner in their semi-final against Arsenal, and is the perfect foil for the talent of Antoine Griezmann. Atleti were also able to add Spain  international Vitolo to their squad who provides additional quality to their attacking options.

Marseille’s progress to the final is largely due to their brilliant home form. The French club have won just one Europa League match away from the Stade Velodrome. They have failed to defeat the likes of KV Oostende, Domžale and Vitória Guimarães away from home during their long route to the final.

This game will be played at the home stadium of Marseille’s Ligue 1 rivals Lyon, familiar ground for many of their players. Les Olympiens will hope a final played on French soil brings some element of home field advantage to offset their poor record on the road in Europe.

Atleti are used to the big occasion and are well-fancied to win their third Europa League title in ten seasons. Despite their early elimination from the Champions League this Atleti side is amongst Europe’s elite, as demonstrated by their position above Champions League finalists Real Madrid in La Liga.

Key battle: Florent Thauvin vs Atletico Madrid's left-back

Florent Thauvin has been the main attacking outlet for Marseille this season, adding 11 assists to a career-high return of 22 goals in Ligue 1 this season.

The French side make the most of Thuavin’s presence in the team by launching 43% of their attacks from the right-side occupied by the exciting winger. Similarly, Thauvin has scored or assisted 43% of Marseille’s goals this season.

The Frenchman will have the perfect platform in this final to clinch his place in Didier Deschamp’s France squad for the World Cup. His scoring rate falls significantly in Europa League play and he has been outscored by Lucas Ocampos on the opposite wing during their run to the final.

If Thauvin has struggled to be influential against the tougher opposition found in Europe then he, as well as the Marseille attack, will be in for a difficult game here. Atletico have kept clean sheets in over half their Europa League fixtures so far and their defence is justifiably rated as one of Europe’s best.

Diego Simeone has a welcome dilemma when it comes to selecting the man tasked with marking Thauvin. Lucas Hernandez has performed admirably during his stint as the starting left-back. With France looking slightly weak in that position he will be another looking to enhance his World Cup hopes in this game.

First choice left-back Filipe Luis has returned from injury since Atleti’s semi-final victory over Arsenal and will be pushing to start the final. Both players are solid defensively but Luis offers more of an attacking threat than Hernandez. The Brazilian has produced acombined 0.18 expected goals and expected goals assisted per 90 compared to Hernandez’s total of 0.02 per 90 this season.

Whoever is tasked with marking Thauvin will need to defend well to ensure Marseille’s dangerman cannot influence the game. Much of the French side’s attacking ambitions depend on their right-winger so this will be the key area as they attempt to break down the impressive Atleti defence.

Marseille vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?

Atletico Madrid’s European pedigree combined with the talent in their squad makes them deserved favourites in this final.

Expect the Atleti backline to give away little and the clinical finishing of Griezmann and Costa to potentially be pivotal.

Given these strengths correct score bettors may be interested in the prospect of another Atletico Madrid 1-0 win. The Spaniards have won by this scoreline in one-third of their Europa League matches this season, a record which closely matches the 30% they have achieved in La Liga this season. This scoreline can be backed at 5.350*.

Their style of play combined with the ability to counter-attack efficiently ensure that it is rare for Atletico to score first and fail to win the match. As a result, bettors who predict Marseille to push them close in this game should consider backing the French side to score the opening goal. Olympique Marseille are available at 3.350* to open the scoring.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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