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Two weeks ago
Oct 12, 2017

Premier League preview: Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Live Liverpool vs. Manchester United odds

The importance of set-pieces

Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Two of the Premier League’s most decorated clubs battle this Saturday as Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United head to Merseyside, where Liverpool will be looking to restart their season after a run of torrid results. Can Jurgen Klopp’s men halt United’s stellar start to the season? What value can be found in the Liverpool vs. Manchester United odds? Read on to find out.

Live Liverpool vs. Manchester United odds

The International break: A chance to regroup?

It feels as if Liverpool’s season has already hit a crossroads. Another string of losses similar to that of recent memory and their chances of challenging for the title this year will be all but over. A winning run starting with high-flyers Manchester United and Jurgen Klopp’s men can begin to close the seven-point gap currently between them and the Manchester clubs.

Liverpool have won just one of their last four, whilst Manchester United have won five of their last six. Based on form, there can really only be one favourite at Anfield on Saturday.

It must be noted that United’s only stumble in the Premier League this season came straight after the last International break; a 2-2 draw against Stoke.

Surprisingly, Liverpool (8.4) have conceded less shots per game than Manchester United (8.9) in the Premier League despite conceding 10 more goals.

When teams are in form a gap in games can often derail their momentum. This weekend may be the perfect time for Liverpool to play the Red Devils, as Jurgen Klopp’s men will be looking to catch them napping.

Meanwhile, Liverpool would have had a chance to regroup and reconsider their approach after a difficult run. If anything, it feels as though the International break came at just the right time for them.

However, it was the last international break that began Liverpool’s uninspiring run, beginning with their 5-0 embarrassment at the hands of United’s Manchester neighbours. Can Liverpool make the most of the International break and begin to climb up the table?

Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting: The importance of set-pieces

Often a towering header from a strong centre-back who has marauded forward for a corner isn’t given the credit as a “well-worked” one-touch passing goal is given, but the importance of set-pieces cannot be understated.

Jurgen Klopp has recently come under scrutiny on the way his side deals with set-pieces. Liverpool has conceded three goals from set-pieces in the Premier League this season; only Leicester have conceded more.

Meanwhile, Manchester United have scored six goals from set-pieces so far this season; a league-high. In their ranks they have four of the top ten tallest players in the Premier League this season, including the likes of Marouane Fellaini and Nemanja Matic.  

In their last outing, the Manchester United starting XI stood at an average of 184.2cms tall, in comparison to Liverpool’s 181.9 against Newcastle.

Set-pieces, like so many times recently, will likely be one of Liverpool’s downfalls on Saturday. A weakness that Jose Mourinho has on countless occasions come up against and on more times than not used to his advantage.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting: Quality chances

Surprisingly, Liverpool (8.4) have conceded less shots per game than Manchester United (8.9) in the Premier League despite conceding 10 more goals. In fact, only Manchester City have conceded less shots on their goal than Liverpool this season.

However, it is not the quantity of chances that Liverpool are giving to opposition’s attacks but the quality of those chances that is hindering their progress.

United’s only stumble in the Premier League this season came straight after the last International break.

Of those shots, a league-high of 15% of shots faced come from inside their own six-yard box. Whereas only 6% of shots faced against Manchester United’s goal come from inside their six-yard box.

The likelihood of scoring chances inside the six-yard box is significantly higher than from outside of the box, for example. Although Liverpool may not be conceding a lot of chances, the quality of chances are usually good.

In contrast, 40% of shots against Manchester United come from outside the 18-yard box. The shots that United’s defence face are often from distance, and therefore unlikely to test their goalkeeper David De Gea.

Their expected goals against figures reinstate this point, with Manchester United’s being as low as 0.9 in comparison to Liverpool’s 1.4. Whilst Liverpool have less shots on their goal, the likelihood of the opposition scoring from their chances are significantly higher due to the quality of chances allowed.

Whilst United may not be able to churn as many chances as they often do on Saturday, expect the chances that they are able to create to be of quality.

Liverpool vs. Manchester United odds: Where is the value?

Despite the immense attacking talent within both United and Liverpool’s ranks, the most recent meetings between the two have been cagey affairs.

The last three meetings have ended in draws, with just four goals being scored. Under 2.5 and 3 stands at 1.813* and may offer value if history offers an insight into Saturday’s proceedings.

Alternatively, the in-form Manchester United may offer potential value with a handicap of 0 odds of 2.030*. If United can find similar form to that before the International break, then a Red Devils win could be on the cards.

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