After a difficult week for Arsene Wenger’s men following their 1-0 loss at Stoke, can Arsenal bounce back as they travel to Anfield for this weekend’s highlight fixture in the Premier League? Will Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool maintain their unbeaten start to the season? Read on for some betting insight.
Live Liverpool vs. Arsenal odds
Liverpool vs. Arsenal betting: Attacking prowess
The most recent Premier League meetings between the two have mostly ended in stalemates, with half of the last six being draws (Liverpool won 2, Arsenal won 1). Yet what is apparent is the likelihood of goals.
In just the last three meetings in the Premier League between Liverpool and Arsenal, 17 goals have been scored, meaning that on average 5.6 goals have been scored per game across them.
This season, the two clubs still show a strong attacking threat that may point to goals once again. Statistically, Arsenal have amassed 22.5 shots per game this season; the league’s highest and dwarfs Liverpool’s still impressive 18.5. However, they only create 11.5 of those chances inside the box, meaning that a big percentage of their shots are outside the box which dramatically decreases their chances of scoring.
Liverpool have a similar 11 shots per game inside the box; so whilst Arsenal’s shots per game is much better than Liverpool’s, the number of quality chances created is similar - something bettors who use an expected goals model will be aware of.
Whilst Arsenal’s shots are shared throughout the team, it is Liverpool’s front three that offer the biggest threat against the Gunners.
Give Liverpool Arsenal’s abysmal record against the top six and they would have finished as low as sixth and out of European football contention.
The frontline trio of Roberto Firmino, Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane have averaged 3 shots per game each so far in the Premier League, with the latter scoring two goals in two games. Between them, they have scored four goals in the first two games; no other Liverpool player has scored.
The two sides show real attacking threat, create chances and convert their goal scoring opportunities. Couple this with the defensive frailties that have cursed the two clubs in past seasons and the game looks to be shaping up to be two teams with attacking prowess but lacking defensive stability; so goals are likely to be on the cards once again.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal betting: Defensive frailties
Whilst Liverpool were able to keep a clean sheet last weekend against Crystal Palace, it must be noted that Palace had scored just two goals in their last four games (including preseason friendlies) and only amassed 2.5 shots on target per game so far in the Premier League; failing to score in the process.
Instead, look at Liverpool’s 3-3 draw with Watford – a team that had also just scored two goals in preseason - as a clear indication of defensive difficulties that looked to have been transferred from last season.
In just the last three meetings in the Premier League between Liverpool and Arsenal, 17 goals have been scored.
For Arsenal, a back three consisting of two fullbacks (Monreal and Kolasinac) shows a lack of centre back cover that Arsene Wenger has full faith in. After a difficult opening weekend, Rob Holding was dropped from the squad and Per Mertesacker could only be found on the bench.
Four goals conceded in two games is a stark reminder of the Gunner’s lack of solidity at the back. Indeed, if it wasn’t for their electrifying attacking force (and Giroud’s late winner: see Mark Taylor’s analysis of clutch performers) on the opening day against Leicester, then Arsenal could be going into Sunday’s clash without a point on the board.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal betting: Big game mentality
The ‘big game mentality’ is one that Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool seemed to thrive on last season. Whilst Arsenal faltered against the rest of the top six, Liverpool went unbeaten the 2016/17 top six mini-league:
It can be argued that it was their record against the elite of the Premier League that saw Arsenal’s hopes of Champions League football diminish last season, paving the way for Jurgen Klopp’s men to take fourth spot by a single point.
Give Liverpool Arsenal’s abysmal record against the top six and they would have finished as low as sixth and out of European football contention. Arsenal’s poor record against the top six last season combined with Liverpool’s impressive big-game record may just point you to a home win on Sunday.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal odds: Where is the value?
Two sides who both have the attacking capabilities to create scoring chances but lack the defensive solidity to keep their opposition at bay points to goals in the Liverpool vs. Arsenal betting odds. Odds of 2.040* for over three goals may show some value in Sunday’s clash.
Looking at Liverpool’s recent form against the so-called ‘big six,’ it is no surprise that Liverpool go into Sunday’s clash as favourites; even if only slightly.
Whilst Liverpool’s 0 and 0.5 handicap odds of 1.892* is by no means an outsider bet, but it may be the smarter play in the Liverpool vs. Arsenal odds market.
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