Antonio’s Conte’s Chelsea welcome Arsenal to Stamford Bridge on Sunday, as they look to extend their recent good form into four wins from five in the Premier League. Can the Gunners pick up a derby day win and begin their push for title contention? Or will Conte’s robust blues stretch out their impressive recent home form against Arsenal? Read on to find out.
Live Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds
Chelsea vs. Arsenal betting: Chelsea’s fortress
Chelsea’s dominance over Arsenal at Stamford Bridge cannot be underestimated going into Sunday’s game. The Blues have won the last five Premier League meetings between the two at their home ground, scoring three goals per game and conceding just two.
Merge this with Arsenal’s abysmal record against the top six last season (won two, drew three, lost five) and their 4-0 loss to Liverpool this season, and the odds are surely stacked against Arsene Wenger’s side.
On average this season, Arsenal have had 60.7% possession in the Premier League; only Manchester City has had more
Conte’s men have hit a good string of form recently. After their opening day hiccup against Burnley, Chelsea have won their last three Premier League games in a difficult period of fixtures which included a home win against Everton and away wins against Tottenham and Leicester.
Arsenal’s 3-0 home win against Bournemouth (a side who have lost all of their opening four Premier League games) seemed to only paper over the cracks of what has been a difficult start to the season.
It has not been their home form that has come under scrutiny, however (Arsenal have won their last seven Premier League home games), but their form away from the Emirates. Spanning across the end of last season and continuing into this season, Arsenal have won just three of their last ten away matches in the Premier League, conceding 24 and keeping just one clean sheet. The signs look ominous for the Gunners when they travel to Stamford Bridge on Sunday.
Aggression vs. possession: Which will suit a derby?
A London derby often results in a fiery affair; there have been two red cards in the last three meetings between Arsenal and Chelsea. Betting on cards this weekend could offer value in a fixture where often tempers flair.
Chelsea and Arsenal may reside in the same city, yet their playing styles spark a contrast worlds away from one another.
Arsene Wenger has forged a career at Arsenal with a possession-based system that focuses on intricate passing to unlock the opposition’s defences. On average this season, Arsenal have had 60.7% possession in the Premier League; only Manchester City has had more.
Their free-flowing soccer is contrasted by the more robust style of Antonio Conte’s Chelsea. Whilst Chelsea can definitely break teams down with intricate football, they often use their athleticism to overpower teams with fast attacks that take more risks with the ball, but move up the pitch much quicker.
Chelsea's pass length average this season of 19 metres is the highest of last season’s top six. Whereas, Arsenal have averaged a pass length of 17 metres; the lowest average in the Premier League this season.
Chelsea have won the last five Premier League meetings against Arsenal at Stamford Bridge, scoring three goals per game and conceding just two.
Will the more intricate shorter passing of Arsenal suit a high-octane derby, where Chelsea’s more robust style of play will likely allow Arsene Wenger’s men possession before attacking quickly? Chelsea on average have had 52.3% possession across their opening four Premier League games this season, the lowest percentage between last season’s top six. Antonio Conte’s men should be comfortable in allowing Arsenal the majority of the ball.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal betting: Midfield battle
Whilst Cesc Fabregas offers Chelsea more attacking threat in the middle, a derby would most likely see the use of either N’Golo Kante or new singing Tiemoue Bakayoko (or most probably both) as Conte looks to dominate the midfield.
On average, Kante and Bakayoko have made 3.8 and 2.3 tackles per game respectively. Whilst Mohammed Elneny’s numbers for Arsenal are very impressive (four tackles per game), there are no other midfielders in Arsenal’s ranks that come close to Chelsea’s rigid middle two. If Kante and Bakayoko can continuously break up Arsenal’s possession-based style of play, then creating chances could prove tricky for Arsenal. The midfield battle could prove vital in Sunday’s derby.
Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds: Where is the value?
In a game where there have been on average three goals per game in their last five meetings, Over 2.5 and 3 odds of 1.862* may offer value in the Chelsea vs. Arsenal odds. Of Arsenal’s last ten Premier League losses, six have ended with more than three goals conceded; so the likelihood of goals is apparent.
If you can see Arsenal breaking tradition and winning at Stamford Bridge, then +0.5 odds of 2.110* for an away win offers huge value. If Arsenal can control possession and block the advances of Chelsea’s strong midfield – all whilst keeping Chelsea’s attacking threat at bay – then Arsene Wenger’s men have the potential to cause an upset.
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