The first silverware of the English soccer season will be up for grabs when Manchester City and Tottenham face off in the EFL Cup final at Wembley Stadium. Can Spurs, who announced the departure of Jose Mourinho this week, claim their first trophy since 2008? Or will City run out comfortable winners? Read on to inform your EFL Cup final predictions.
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Date/time: Sunday April 25, 16:00 (GMT)
Venue: Wembley Stadium, London
EFL Cup final: A closer look at the odds
Pinnacle’s odds suggest that Manchester City are expected to win the match comfortably, with Guardiola’s men boasting around a 65% chance of victory, compared to just a 15% chance for Tottenham.
Pinnacle’s Over/Under Goals market is set at 2.5, with 1.862* for Over and 1.961* for Under. Over 2.5 goals were scored in three of the past four EFL Cup finals, backing up the slight edge in the Over 2.5 goals selection.
EFL Cup head-to-head record
Spurs boast a 100% record against Manchester City in the EFL Cup (winning three out of three matchups), with their most recent win coming in 2007 thanks to goals from Jermain Defoe and Steed Malbranque. However, City have the slight edge in the overall head-to-head statistics, with 64 wins to Tottenham’s 63 in all competitions (36 draws).
However, bettors shouldn’t read too much into these past statistics due to the sheer dominance of Manchester City this season, as their hunt for an unprecedented quadruple continues, and you can expect that Guardiola’s men will be keen to tick their first trophy off the list at Wembley against Tottenham.
The key men: De Bruyne vs. Kane
When it comes to Manchester City and Tottenham, there can be no doubt who the key players are for each side. Kevin De Bruyne and Harry Kane are fundamental to the success of their respective sides. In any previous season, eyebrows might be raised when comparing the City playmaker to the Tottenham talisman; however, Harry Kane has shown this season he is just as much of a playmaker as he is a world-class striker.
Since the arrival of Mourinho's defensive approach in 2019, Harry Kane has seen his role adapt into a more complete forward player. The England captain has shown his passing ability is as good as anybody else’s in English soccer, setting up teammates Son, Bale and Lucas to score on a regular basis. After picking up what looked like another ankle injury, Spurs fans will be sweating on the fitness of their star-man.
Kevin De Bruyne
When Kevin De Bruyne is at his best, Manchester City are invariably at their best. The Belgian midfielder has shown under Pep Guardiola that he is capable of anything in City’s midfield - whether it be an inch-perfect pass, a fiercely driven cross or a Goal of the Month contender. Considered by most as the best player in English soccer, Kevin De Bruyne will be key to Manchester City’s success in the EFL Cup final, should he be fit to start.
Manchester City vs. Tottenham: Where is the value?
If you consider the league table, odds, and Tottenham’s recent cup final woes, you may be hard-pressed to find many people predicting that Spurs will win their first trophy since 2008.
With Jose Mourinho leaving the club after just over a year in charge, could Tottenham benefit from a potential 'new manager bounce'?
Tottenham also have a slight edge over City in big, must-win moments. In April 2019, Spurs – then managed by Mauricio Pochettino – managed to overcome Manchester City in what was one of the great Champions League ties. Tottenham were 11.000 to win that night and managed to overcome the odds.
Considering Spurs have beaten Manchester City twice in the past two seasons, 5.720* could represent value in the Money Line market for the London club, who will be desperate to put their trophy woes behind them.
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