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Dec 6, 2018

Premier League preview: Chelsea vs. Manchester City

Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds

Inform your Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction

Chelsea vs. Manchester City: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Chelsea vs. Manchester City

Chelsea welcome reigning champions Manchester City to Stamford Bridge in our highlight Premier League fixture this weekend. Looking for value in the Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds? Read on to inform your Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction.

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A close look at the Chelsea vs. Manchester City odds

Even without home advantage, the 1X2 Odds make Manchester City favourites at odds of *1.943, to win at Stamford Bridge this weekend. The implied probability of a win for Pep Guardioa's side is around 50%.*

The Over/Under Total is set at 2.5 & 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 & 3 Goals currently priced at 1.840*.

Time: 16:30 UTC kickoff  

Venue: Stamford Bridge

Chelsea vs. Manchester City predicted lineups

Chelsea predicted lineup

(4-3-3): Arrizabalaga; Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso; Kante, Jorginho, Loftus-Cheek; Pedro, Hazard, Giroud.

Chelsea team news:

The good news for Chelsea is that they have an almost fully-fit squad, with Victor Moses the only doubt with a continued back problem.

Manchester City predicted lineup

(4-3-3) Ederson; Walker, Stones, Laporte, Delph; B. Silva, Fernandinho, D. Silva; Mahrez, Sterling, Jesus.

Manchester City team news:

Out: Benjamin Mendy (knee), Claudio Bravo (Achilles), Eliaquim Mangala (knee)

Doubtful: Kevin De Bruyne (knee), Sergio Aguero (muscle), Oleksandr Zinchenko (nose), Vincent Kompany (hamstring)

The main injury concern for Man City ahead of the match is the fitness of Sergio Aguero, who has missed the last two games with a muscle injury and remains a doubt for this match.

Manchester United vs. Arsenal expected goals stats

• Chelsea expected goals per game: 1.95

• Chelsea expected goals against per game: 1.03

• Chelsea expected points per game: 2.06

• Manchester City expected goals per game: 2.85

• Manchester City expected goals against per game: 0.68

• Manchester City expected points per game: 2.57

Inform your Chelsea vs. Manchester City prediction

Prior to the round of midweek fixtures both Chelsea and Manchester City gained comfortable home victories over Bournemouth and Fulham, but it was Chelsea who failed to follow up with a further three points conceding two goals in four minutes to lose 2-1 at Wolves, leaving The Blues 10 points behind Manchester City in the title race.

Chelsea have Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud, who have scored a combined six goals from 54 shots, while Eden Hazard has not scored a Premier League goal since October, which is a worrying sign for Chelsea entering arguably the most difficult fixture in the calendar.

"After 15 games of the Premier League season gone, City have trailed for just 12 minutes, which highlights how impressive the reigning champions have been."

In recent weeks the West London club have been dominating possession in matches, but there has been little or no end product to match the kind of style of play Sarri has been demanding from his side. In contrast, Manchester City not only dominate possession but are also able to breach defences at will and this has been the difference in quality between the two sides.

Chelsea have secured six points from their matches against the ‘big six’ this season, but have been largely poor in these matches. Mauricio Sarri’s side have conceded an average of 2.06 xGA per game against these teams, signifying that superior opposition have not found it hard to create chances against The Blues – which is not the best preparation when preparing to face a team of City’s quality.

It wasn’t until January last season that Manchester City were beaten in the Premier League and Pep Guardiola's side are looking even more dominant this season, but they will need to close to their best to secure all three points this Saturday.

After 15 games of the Premier League season gone, City have trailed for just 12 minutes, which highlights how impressive the reigning champions have been. The Manchester club have been the best team in the league this season, and their level of domination is astonishing, not only in attack, but also defensively.

Analysing the expected goals statistics this season City’s numbers are huge. The Blues have an xG of 2.85 goals per game, compared to Chelsea’s 1.95 – almost one goal higher per game.

Defensively, they have also been remarkable, allowing an expected goal against average of just 0.68 per game – which highlights that not only are they expected to score multiple times each match but they are also expected to concede very few goals.

While Mauricio Sarri has installed better-quality to Chelsea this season, and got The Blues playing very well at times, they still lack the penetration and all-round ability levels of Manchester City. Entering the game in mixed form, whilst comparing their record against the other ‘big six’ teams, they will need to vastly improve their performance to be victorious.

Chelsea vs. Manchester City: Where is the value?

The Total Goals mark is relatively high at 2.5 and 3 due to both sides scoring 76 goals between them this season, but history suggests games between these two teams rarely produces lots of goals, with both sides finding the net just four times in the last three meetings, so odds of 2.080* on Under 2.5 and 3 Goals could represent value to bettors.

Analysing the 1X2 odds, Manchester City are justified 1X2 favourites. The underlying stats of both Chelsea and Manchester City support the case that Guardiola has reached almost the pinnacle of his powers at Manchester City while Chelsea are still adapting to Mauricio Sarri’s new style and demands. 1.934* is some of the highest odds Manchester City have been to win in a Premier League game this season and a 1X2 bet on the Citizens at these odds looks a sensible bet.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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