Sep 28, 2018
Sep 28, 2018

Premier League preview: Chelsea vs. Liverpool

Chelsea vs. Liverpool odds

Inform your Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction

Chelsea vs. Liverpool betting: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Chelsea vs. Liverpool

In a top of the table clash, Chelsea host Liverpool in our highlight Premier League fixture this weekend. Looking for value in the Chelsea vs. Liverpool odds? Read on to inform your Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction.

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A close look at the Chelsea vs. Liverpool odds

The Money Line odds make Liverpool favourites, despite being away from home, to edge what looks like a close game at Stamford Bridge.

The odds suggest the game could be a high scoring encounter with over 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 1.934*.

Time: Saturday, September 29, 18:30 UTC kick-off

Venue: Stamford Bridge

Chelsea vs Liverpool Predicted lineups

Chelsea predicted lineup

4-3-3: Arrizabalaga; Alonso, Luiz, Cahill, Azpilicueta; Kovacic, Jorginho, Kante; Hazard, Giroud, Willian.

Chelsea team news

Antonio Rudiger was absent for the midweek clash between the two sides and Andreas Christensen also picked up a knock, so David Luiz and Gary Cahill are expected to start.

Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Pedro are likely to miss out through injury.

Liverpool predicted lineup

4-3-3: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Milner, Wijnaldum, Keita; Salah, Firmino, Mane.

Liverpool team news

The Reds are expected to select Jordan Henderson, James Milner and Georginio Wijnaldum in midfield while Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane are all expected to start.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool stats

  • After failing to beat Chelsea in midweek, Liverpool now haven’t registered a home victory against the Blues since 2012
  • Liverpool have only won two of the last 15 meetings between the two clubs
  • In the previous 16 matches between Chelsea and Liverpool there has been an average of 2.31 goals per game while both teams to score has happened 75% of the time
  • There have been over 2.5 goals in 67% of games involving Chelsea and Liverpool this season (4 out of 6 games this season involving Chelsea and Liverpool have finished with 3 or more goals). The average percentage of games where there are over 2.5 goals in the Premier League is currently 62%

Chelsea vs. Liverpool expected goals stats

  • Chelsea expected goals per game: 1.76
  • Chelsea expected goals against per game: 0.90
  • Chelsea expected points per game: 2.02
  • Liverpool expected goals per game: 2.41
  • Liverpool expected goals against per game: 0.54
  • Liverpool expected points per game: 2.54

    Inform your Chelsea vs. Liverpool prediction

    So far this season in the Premier League, Chelsea have averaged 3 points per match at home whilst Liverpool have averaged 3 points per game away from home, so neither side will keep their 100% win record.

    In their most recent Premier League match, Chelsea failed to win for the first time this season against a spirited West Ham side as the Blues were held to a goalless draw, but Mauricio Sarris’ side did create the better of the chances when looking at the expected goals stats - xG: WHU 1.01 – 2.27 CHE.

    The Total Goals mark is relatively high at three but it’s easy to see why, as games involving these two teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 67% of matches whilst 4 out of 6 games have finished with 3 or more goals. Additionally, Liverpool along with Manchester City have the highest xG of any team in the league.

    Jurgen Klopp’s side made it seven wins out of seven last weekend, beating Southampton 3-0 producing another well-rounded performance. The Reds expected goals was far superior to their opponents’ - xG: LIV 2.17 – 0.70 SOU, which showed they deserved their victory.

    Both teams now operate a much more attack-minded approach rather than the more defensive-based tactics of previous managers Jose Mourinho and Rafa Benitez, which points to a more attacking match with the potential for goals now far superior than meetings between these two sides in previous seasons.

    With Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane on the pitch and Eden Hazard at the other end in superb form we should witness plenty of chances created from both sides.

    Chelsea vs. Liverpool: Where is the value?

    Liverpool did suffer a defeat to Chelsea, in the Carabao Cup in midweek, but made plenty of changes, most notably altering their whole back five and it was evident that changing a strong defensive unit was one of the main reason for their defeat.

    The Reds will have their strongest eleven on the pitch this weekend, and bettors shouldn’t read too much into the game in midweek.

    One of Chelsea’s main weaknesses this season so far is stopping opponents from creating chances against them whilst Liverpool’s strength has been creating them.

    Liverpool are averaging 2.39 xGF per game, and there seems no sign that will stop any time soon. Their attacking trio of Salah, Firmino and Mane is arguably the best in the Premier League and a bet on over 2.5 and 3 goals at odds of 1.877* could provide value if both teams play to their usual style of play.

    Chelsea have been in good form so far this season, but it is worth bettors noting that the Blues have had a much easier opening six games than their rivals. Liverpool have been a superior side than the London club in both attack and defence, and a 0 handicap bet on Jurgen Klopp’s side at odds of 1.840* could be potential value.

    It’s also worth noting that the intense atmosphere and rivalry when two top teams meet could mean an increased number of cards shown. Both sides have averaged one card per game this season - so if bettors are looking for other options in the betting market then cards betting is certainly one to consider.

    To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

    Odds subject to change

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