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May 2, 2017
May 2, 2017

An in-depth look at the Champions League semi-finals

Champions League semi-finals betting preview

Find out which Champions League winner odds offer value

Will Monaco continue to surprise bettors?

An in-depth look at the Champions League semi-finals

Thirty-two clubs started the Champions League group stage back in September and now, seven months later, there are just four teams left as we reach the semi-final stage. Who will make it to the Champions League final on June 3 at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff? Read on for some betting insight.

The Champions League is Europe’s elite soccer competition. After various qualifying rounds, 32 teams were left in the group stage format of the competition. Only two from each group qualified for the knockout stage and after the Round of 16 and Quarter-finals, only Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, AS Monaco and Juventus remain.

Below is a table of the four remaining teams in Pinnacle's outright Champions League betting:

Pinnacle's outright Champions League betting:

TeamCountryOdds*
Real Madrid Spain 2.620
Juventus Italy 2.670
Atletico Madrid Spain 4.980
Monaco France 8.230

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid

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A replay of the 2016 and 2014 Champions League final, the Madrid derby is this year’s standout semi-final. The two teams are separated by a matter of miles and have been battling it out in La Liga and the latter stages of the Champions League for the past few years.

While Real Madrid have struggled to overcome Diego Simeone’s side in La Liga of late - losing three, drawing one and winning one of the last five derbies in the league - Los Blancos has an unblemished record against their local rivals in the UCL - winning both of the aforementioned finals and winning one leg and drawing the other in the 2015 quarter-final.

Atletico has failed to compete in La Liga this year (they are currently seven points behind Real Madrid and Barcelona) but has impressed during the Champions League campaign - they have won seven of their ten games, losing only once and conceding just 5 goals (0.5 goals per game) in the process.

Real Madrid has conceded at least once in every game they have played (at an average of 1.5 goals per game) but have scored 28 goals in total so far (2.8 goals per game).

Real Madrid, by contrast, has qualified the hard way. Zinedine Zidane’s side has been one of the most entertaining sides in this year’s competition - they have conceded at least once in every game they have played (at an average of 1.5 goals per game) but have scored 28 goals in total so far (2.8 goals per game).

Real Madrid are current favourites to win the Champions League at 2.620* and while Atletico is likely to frustrate them over the two legs, home field advantage could prove crucial for the first leg and Los Blancos will be confident of taking a lead into the second leg. If you think Atletico can stop Ronaldo and co from scoring in the first leg, their odds of 4.980* to win the competition is certainly a value bet.

While this semi-final might be a tough one to call, bettors can benefit by looking into the other markets available - with an average of 7.8 cards per game in the last ten games between the two sides, cards betting could prove to be a valuable betting opportunity.

AS Monaco vs. Juventus

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AS Monaco has been the surprise package in both the Champions League and their domestic league this season. The current Ligue 1 leaders are the second highest scorers in the top five European soccer leagues (scoring 90 goals in all competitions at an average of 2.7 goals per game) and have scored three goals in each of the last four Champions League games. 

Juventus have only conceded two goals in the Champions League this season (just 0.2 goals per game) and managed to shut out Barcelona over two legs.

The AS Monaco vs. Juventus semi-final can be seen as a classic case of defence vs. attack. The reigning Serie A champions have only conceded two goals in the Champions League this season (just 0.2 goals per game) and managed to shut out arguably the best attack in world football, Barcelona, over two legs.

With the emerging talent of Kylian Mbappe and the fact that Radamel Falcao has rediscovered is goal scoring form, AS Monaco will hope to give themselves a lead before heading to the Juventus Stadium for the second leg of their semi-final tie. Although they are the biggest outsiders to win the UCL at 8.230*, they could continue to surprise bettors.

The Old Lady has been a model of consistency in recent years but always seem to falter at the final hurdle - they regularly qualify for the knockout stages but have lost in each of the last four Champions League finals they have competed in (2015, 2003, 1998 and 1997). Priced at 2.670* to win the competition outright, this could finally be Juventus’ year.

Odds subject to change

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