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Nov 5, 2018

La Liga preview: Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid

Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid odds

Inform your Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid prediction

Analysing the Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid

Celta Vigo host Real Madrid in this week's highlight La Liga match. Looking for value in the Celta Vigo Real Madrid odds? Read on to inform your Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid odds

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The Money Line odds make Real Madrid the favourites, with the odds implying the away side have a 59% chance of winning this game. A high scoring game is also expected with odds of 1.862* for Over 3 and 3.5, while there are odds of 2.020* Under 3 and 3.5. The La Liga average is 2.47 goals per match this season.

Time: Sunday Novemeber 11 19:45 UTC kickoff

Venue: Abanca-Balaídos

Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid statistics

  • Celta Vigo have kept just two clean sheets in their opening 11 La Liga games
  • Real Madrid have the third highest expected goals total in La Liga with an xG of 20.47
  • Celta Vigo expected goals for per game: 1.1
  • Celta Vigo expected goals against per game: 1.4
  • Real Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.9
  • Real Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.2

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid predicted lineups

Celta Vigo predicted lineup

3-4-3: Alvarez; Cabral, Roncaglia, Araujo; Mendez, Yokuslu, Beltran, Hjulsager; Sisto, Aspas, Gomez

Mathias Jensen and Robert Mazan remain side lined, while Maximiliano Gomez is expected to start after he marked his return from injury last weekend by coming off the bench to score twice.

Real Madrid predicted lineup

4-3-3: Courtois; Odriozola, Nacho, Ramos, Reguion; Modric, Casemiro, Kross; Bale, Benzema, Asensio

Varane and Carvajal remain out, while Sunday’s game should come too soon for Marcelo who is expected back next week.

Inform your Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid prediction

Contrasting starts to the season finds Celta Vigo and Real Madrid a lot closer to each other than previously predicted.

Celta Vigo have been preforming slightly above expectation this season, with 14 points in their opening 11 games – compared to their expected points of 11.84.

Having only scored 16 goals so far in the league, Real have an xG of 20.97 – a sign they are creating the right amount of chances at least.

Currently sitting 11th in the table, Celestes have lost just once at home all season – picking up two wins and four draws.

Much of their relative success has come in the form of Iago Aspas. The striker currently sits third in the La Liga goal scoring charts – with eight goals in eleven games. While fellow frontman Maximiliano Gomez has six goals in only nine games, plus a further four assists.

Coming off the bench to score a brace on his return from injury last weekend, Gomez could well be reinstated into the starting 11 by manager Antonio Mohamed, who may revert back to a 3-4-3 formation to accommodate the striker – having stuck with a flat 4-4-2 in recent games.

Both Gomez and Aspas partnered Sisto in a front three, and as part of a 3-4-3, in Celta Vigo’s early season home win against Atletico Madrid – a sign Mohamed isn’t afraid to sacrifice numbers at the back to aid his attacking options against stronger opposition.

Real Madrid have yet to concede from outside of the box this season too – further reinforcing the notion that both quality and quantity will be needed in Celta Vigo’s forward line.

Now under the reign of caretaker manager Santiago Solari, following the dismissal of Julen Lopetegui, Los Blancos’ weekend win against Valladolid stopped a run of five league games without a victory.

Currently lying in 6th place with 17 points, Madrid’s underlying performances suggests their struggles in front of goal could only be temporary. Having only scored 16 goals so far in the league, Real have an expected goals (xG) of 20.97 – a sign they are creating the right amount of chances at least.

Combine this with the fact that managerial sackings can often reinvigorate underperforming teams, an all-round brighter picture of the European champions begins to emerge.

Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid: Where is the value?

While Real Madrid are justified 1X2 favourites, there is also possible value in alternative markets.

As mentioned above, the Total Goals mark is reasonably high at 3 and 3.5, but recent form, a likelihood of six strikers on the field and historical data show this too is justified.

The two La Liga meetings between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid last season saw 10 goals, while Real have only taken part in one 0-0 this season, with every Celta Vigo game containing at least one goal.

Furthermore, the Real Madrid -1 handicap is available at 2.020 and could offer value to bettors expecting Real’s performance to improve.

Odds subject to change

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