Aug 15, 2019
Aug 15, 2019

Outright Bundesliga betting: 2019/20 Bundesliga preview

Outright Bundesliga betting: 2019/20 Bundesliga preview

Where is the value in Pinnacle’s Bundesliga outright betting odds? This article uses Pinnacle’s projected points for each team to predict the Bundesliga table. Who are the Bundesliga teams bettors should be aware of this season? Read on to find out.

2019/20 Bundesliga table predictions: What do the odds say?

This is the predicted Bundesliga table based upon Pinnacle’s Bundesliga over/under points totals for certain teams:

2019/20 Bundesliga table predictions

Team

2018-19 points

2019-20 projected points total

Bayern Munich

78

80.5

Borussia Dortmund

76

68.5

RB Leipzig

66

58.5

Bayer Leverkusen

58

56.5

Monchengladbach

55

52.5

Wolfsburg

55

44.5

This is the points change from 2018/19 to 2019/20 implied by Pinnacle’s projected point totals:

Point difference

Team

Point difference

Bayern Munich

2.5

Borussia Dortmund

-7.5

RB Leipzig

-7.5

Bayer Leverkusen

-1.5

Monchengladbach

-2.5

Wolfsburg

-10.5

Pinnacle’s point totals anticipate only Bayern Munich improving upon their 2018/19 campaign. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg will have the biggest regression on their points tally, followed by upstarts RB Leipzig and second place finishing Borussia Dortmund.

However, are Pinnacle’s projected points a fair reflection of these team’s abilities?

Bundesliga 18/19 expected points vs 19/20 projections

Expected points use expected goals data to calculate the number of points a team can expect to win based on the quality and quantity of shots taken in matches.

Looking at last season’s expected points data should help to isolate any teams who over or underperformed. The teams whose seasons varied significantly from this statistic may regress to the mean during the 2019/20 season.

Bundesliga 18/19 points vs 19/20 projections

Team

18/19 expected points

19-20 projected points

Difference

Bayern Munich

82.00

80.5

-1.50

Borussia Dortmund

62.85

68.5

+5.65

RB Leipzig

63.06

58.5

-4.56

Bayer Leverkusen

57.40

56.5

-0.90

Monchengladbach

51.38

52.5

1.12

Wolfsburg

47.04

44.5

-2.54

Who will win the Bundesliga?

Bayern Munich

Bayern Munich are overwhelming favourites again this season as they look to build on Niko Kovac’s first successful season in charge, and to capture their eighth consecutive title and make it 29 in total.

The departures of established players Arjen Robben, Franck Ribery and Rafinha leave some space in the squad the likes of Gnabry and Coman need to fill whilst the additions of Jann-Fiete Arp, Lucas Hernandez, and Benjamin Pavard indicate an attempt to rebuild whilst still challenging for domestic & European trophies.

Borussia Dortmund

Pinnacle’s expected points for Borussia for 2019 - 20 season is set at 68.5, and their expected point total for the 2019 - 20 season is at a low 62.85 of which they were able to achieve 76 points, only two points off being crowned champions. The general consensus is that this total is too low, as the overs/under are priced at 1.555/2.469 as Dortmund have consciously looked to go all-out in this season’s bid to knock off Bayern Munich. This is reflective of the £114.75M spent during the transfer window, along with Lucien Favre’s history of teams managed under him consistently exceeding expected points when in charge of Nice and Monchengladbach.

Points vs expected points

Team

Points

Expected Points

Difference

Borussia Dortmund 2018/19

76

62.85

13.15

Nice 2017/18

54

53.88

0.12

Nice 2016/17

78

53.47

24.53

Monchengladbach 2015/16

55

50.06

4.94

Monchengladbach 2014/15

66

57.01

8.99

The additions of Mats Hummels, Julian Brandt, Nico Schulz, Mateu Morey, and Thorgan Hazard provide some depth to the squad.

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig were able to score 58 points in the 2018 - 19 season, which was a touch lower than the team’s expected goals of 63.06, making the over/unders spot on at 58.5.

They could very well exceed Pinnacle’s totals with new boss Julian Nagelsmann who becomes the youngest permanent head coach in Budesliga history, bringing in training ground innovation such as filming with drones and installation of a videowall.With a young nucleus Timo Werner and additions of Ethan Ampadu, Ademola Lookman and Chistopher Nkunku, RB Leipzig are set to make some noise.

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen are on the rise, and Peter Bosz will look to replicate the mid-season success he had with the team as he steered them from ninth to fourth behind the now young nucleus of Kai Havertz & Leon Bailey. Havertz became the first teenager in Bundesliga history to reach 17 goals in a single campaign

Additions of Kerem Demirbay, Moussa Diaby, and Daley Sinkgraven will attempt to replace the losses of Julian Brandt for Die Werkself.

Monchengladbach

Monchengladbach will welcome new coach Marco Rose from Red Bull Salzburg.They finished fifth  in last year’s Bundesliga and only just missed out on Champions League football, and many would say that they overperformed their expected total points for 18 -19 by 3.62. They could struggle to reach Pinnacle’s predicted point total of 52.5 with the loss of main man Thorgan Hazard to Borussia Dortmund, and injuries to Lars Stindl and Raffael.

Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg now have the challenge of balancing European football alongside attempting to replicate last season’s over performance of their expected points total. Some regression to the mean could be expected. Pinnacle’s expected totals have been set at 44.5 with the unders at 2.150.

Get the best Bundesliga odds this season with Pinnacle.

Odds subject to change

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