Nov 14, 2019
Nov 14, 2019

Brasilerao: Chapecoense vs. Ceara preview

Are Ceara overpriced?

Home / Away splits

Chapecoense vs. Ceara: Where is the value?

Brasilerao: Chapecoense vs. Ceara preview

Ceara makes the trip from Fortaleza to Chapeco to take on Chapecoense. While it won’t make the television or media, the game is one many bettors should keep an eye on as there is considerable market value available.

Are Ceara overpriced?

To say that Ceara is overpriced would be an enormous understament. Looking back in all matches played since August, Ceara has been priced higher than 2.15 just one time, and it was a home match against the worst defence in the country, Goias. Their average price away from home has been considerably higher.

The last time they were sub 3.00 was just last weekend, and they lost 1-0 away at Fortaleza. Simply put, there is little that this team does which stands out. Through 32 matches, they have average 1.00 goals for and 1.00 goals against per match.

Their only signature victory on the season was a home win against Internacional, which is one of the worst away teams in the league despite ranking in the top seven overall.

In order to deserve a price tag of 2.10 away from home, the divide in talent must be significant. That divide does not exist here, despite how poor Chapecoense is.

Home / Away splits

Ceara has earned just two victories and two draws away from home this season in 16 matches played. Their 0.68 goals for and 1.31 allowed have them ranked third worst in Brazil, just ahead of Avai and CSA.

Beyond the vanity numbers, their performance within the 90 minutes is undeserving. Their most recent victory was against Bahia, a match which they trailed into the 86th minute 1-0 and managed to score twice in the waning minutes.

The last match they earned points away at was a draw at Corinthians, where they fell behind 2-0 early and earned the draw on a 92nd minute goal.

Bettors have to go all the way back to May to find the last away match Ceara earned points in away at Avai, and it was the exact same story. Ceara trailed the worst team in the country entering the 75th minute before scoring twice in the final 12 minutes.

In all three games, Ceara conceded more shot attempts and shots inside 18 yards than their opponent.

Chapecoense vs. Ceara: Where is the value?

Ceara is faced with the most daunting road trip in all of Brazil. They will make the trip from Fortaleza in the northeastern corner all the way to Chapeco in the South. The trip traverses more than 4,000km and takes more than six hours in the air. In the first matchup, the lack of defence showed for both of these teams.

Five goals were scored in August with Ceara netting four of them. It is worth noting the toll the trip took on Chapecoense. It is worth noting how the fatigue of the trip set in. After playing to a competitive level 0-0 scoreline in the first half, Chapecoense conceded four goals on eight shots in the second half. With the venue switched, I see the edge swinging to Chapecoense.

There is still no indication of defence being played in this match, but the low output numbers overall are keeping this total down with Over 2 goals priced to 1.98. The enormous price on Ceara is inflated and nothing of their performance in 2019 suggests they are deserving of this number.

Bettors can rely on the numbers and find value with the Over, and Chapecoense +0.5 and Over 2 goals.

Odds subject to change

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