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Oct 17, 2018
Oct 17, 2018

Copa Libertadores preview: Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras

Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras odds

Inform your Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras prediction

Analysing the Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras betting stats

Copa Libertadores preview: Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras

Boca juniors play Palmeiras in the second of the Copa Libertadores semi-finals. Looking for value in the Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras odds? Read on to inform your Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras prediction.

Boca Juniors vs Palmieras Odds

Boca Juniors are available at 2.160* to win the first leg in Argentina, implying a win percentage of around 45% for the Argentinians. Under 2.00 first leg goals is slightly favoured at 1.793*.

Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras betting: statistics

  • Boca Juniors have won four of their ten Copa Libertadores games by two goals or more
  • The Buenos Aires side have kept a clean sheet in half of their Libertadores matches
  • Palmeiras have won eight of their ten games by two goals or more
  • The Brazilians have won by a 2-0 scoreline in half of their Libertadores matches
  • Boca Juniors have won eight of their last ten Libertadores home matches
  • 17 of the 24 goals scored in Libertadores matches involving Palmeiras have occurred in the second half

Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras preview

Group stage opponents Boca Juniors and Palmeiras meet again in the semi-final of the Copa Libertadores in the second of the rounds Argentina vs. Brazil clashes.

The Brazilians were victorious in the previous fixture in Buenos Aires securing a 2-0 win which helped them to the top of the group. A repeat of that result would provide a huge advantage for Palmeiras going into the second leg.

Group stage results

Boca Juniors 0-2 Palmeiras

Palmeiras 1-1 Boca Juniors

However, group stage results are unlikely to be a true representation of how the first leg of this tie will be played. Palmeiras were outsiders prior to the intitial fixture in Argentina and at the time of writing are only marginally more likely to secure a win in the first leg.

Boca Juniors vs. Palmeiras odds group stage vs semi-final first leg

Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras odds

Result

Group stage closing odds

Semi-final first leg odds

Boca Juniors

2.09

2.16*

Draw

3.31

3.19*

Palmeiras

4.09

3.82*

 

Palmeiras vs. Boca Juniors group stage odds

Palmeiras vs Boca Juniors group stage odds

Result

Group stage closing odds

Palmeiras

1.93

Draw

3.30

Boca Juniors

4.77

Since that group stage matchup Boca have progressed comfortably through the knockout rounds, taking two goal advantages into the second leg each time.

Palmeiras have been less assured since the group stage, conceding 75% of the possession during a surprise defeat to Cerro Porteno in their round of 16 second leg, but eventually holding on to qualify.

They progressed as comfortably as expected against Colo Colo in the quarter-final but cannot afford a repeat of their home performance in the round of 16 against a strong Boca side. 

Key player: Miguel Borja

Boca Juniors’ goal threat is well distributed around their team with Ramon Abila, Carlos Tevez, Mauro Zarate and Cristian Pavon all scoring three goals in the Libertadores this season.

In contrast striker Miguel Borja accounts for nine of Palmeiras’ 20 goals in the competition, including both goals in the vital away win over Cerro Porteno. The Colombian is the competitions joint top goalscorer and averages a strike every 79 minutes he has been on the pitch.

His ability to take make the most of chances at key moments in big games will be much needed if the Brazilians are to progress to the final. Borja has scored five game winning goals on the way to the semi-finals.

If Boca can limit service to the centre-forward then that will go a long way towards limiting their opponents’ attacking threat, but that will be tough over a 180 minute tie.

Boca Juniors vs Palmeiras: Where is the value?

Despite Palmeiras emerging victorious form their group stage encounter this tie is very tough to call. Boca will likely need to make the most of their first leg home advantage since they cannot rely on winning in Sao Paulo.

They will need to be wary of allowing Borja space on the break however. With the result in the balance and both teams capable of scoring a bet on over 1.5 goals to be scored in the first leg could offer value at 1.564*.

In matches involving Palmeiras 17 of the 24 goals scored occurred in the second half. Boca will be eager to avoid allowing their opponents an early goal which could set the pace of the tie whilst Palmeiras seemed to play more expansively in the second half of matches.

Palmeiras not to score in the first half is available at 1.342* and could be a sensible selection for bettors who expect this trend to continue.

Read more expert betting advice to take advantage of Pinnacle’s best value Copa Libertadores odds. 

Odds subject to change

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