Oct 26, 2018
Oct 26, 2018

La Liga preview: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid odds

Inform your Barcelona vs. Real Madrid prediction

Analysing the Barcelona vs. Real Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Barcelona play Real Madrid in the first El Clasico of the La Liga season. Looking for value in the Real Madrid vs. Barcelona odds? Read on to inform your Barcelona vs. Real Madrid prediction.

A close look at the Barcelona vs. Real Madrid odds

The Money Line odds imply Barcelona have a greater than 45%* chance of winning this game. The goal total is set at 3.25 above the La Liga average of 2.48 goals per game this season.

Time: Sunday 28 October 14:15 UTC kickoff  

Venue: Camp Nou

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid expected goals stats

  • Barcelona expected goals for per game: 2.31
  • Barcelona expected goals against per game: 1.22
  • Real Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.9
  • Real Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.03
  • Lionel Messi has directly contirbuted to 12 of Barca's 23 La Liga goals (seven goals, five assists)
  • Real lead the La Liga expected points table

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid predicted lineups

Barcelona predicted lineup

4-3-3: Ter Stegen; Roberto, Pique, Lenglet, Alba; Busquets, Rakitic, Arthur; Dembele, Suarez, Coutinho

Arturo vidal and midweek goalscorer Rafinha offer alternatives in midfield. Umtiti and Messi are long term absentees.

Real Madrid predicted lineup

4-4-2: Courtois; Odirozola, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Casemiro, Kroos, Modric; Isco, Benzema, Bale

Odriozola may return to the side in place of Vazquez. Asensio, Mariano and Valverde could start if Lopetegui rotates his side.

Inform your Barcelona vs. Real Madrid prediction

This weekend’s El Clasico takes place in somewhat unfamiliar circumstances with neither Lionel Messi nor Cristiano Ronaldo taking part for the first time in eleven years.

In the absence of Ronaldo, Julen Lopetegui’s new look Real side have struggled, placing the former Spain manager’s position at the club into question.

This is a little unfortunate for the Spaniard since, despite only winning four of their nine matches, Real have outscored their opponents on expected goals in all but two of his games in charge. They actually lead the expected points table at this stage.

However, despite this potential misfortune, Real are not comprehensively defeating teams as they have done in the past, offering weaker opponents the opportunity to capitalise on big moments in matches.

Whilst Barcelona sit top of the La Liga table it has not been a straightforward start to the season for them either. The Catalans have already dropped nine points and are actually only four points ahead of Real Madrid in the standings.

The brilliance of Lionel Messi has kept them ahead of the La Liga chasing pack but the Argentinian’s absence on Saturday could prove costly. A win for their rivals in this match could significantly change the narrative around the two clubs.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid odds: How important is Lionel Messi?

Lionel Messi’s enforced absence through injury is one of the major talking points ahead of El Clasico, but how important is the five-time Ballon D’or winner to Barcelona? According to the odds his absence is significant.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid odds

 Odds period

Barcelona

Draw

Real Madrid

Pinnacle opening line

1.74

4.52

4.30

Odds after Messi injury

2.09

3.86

3.39

When the market opened Barcelona had a 57.47% chance of winning the match implied by Pinnacle’s odds. Since Messi’s injury Barca’s implied win percentage has moved to 47.85%.

This is an especially significant odds movement movement considering Real Madrid’s defeat against Levante. If Real had won that match the change could have been even more dramatic.

This seems like a big shift considering the home side can call on €147m signing Ousmane Dembele as Messi’s replacement, however the Argentinian is simply that important to Ernesto Valverde’s men.

Messi vs. Dembele per 90 stats

Player

Goals/90*

xG/90*

xA/90*

Lionel Messi

0.91

0.48

0.41

Ousmane Dembele

0.52

0.24

0.26

*as starter only

Messi has directly contributed to over half of Barcelona’s league goals this season and leaves a big hole for the young Frenchman to fill.

Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: Where is the value?

Where bettors see value in this match is likely related to how they view the market’s reaction to Messi’s injury. Barcelona were reasonably strong favourites with their star man but look more vulnerable without him.

Equally, this is a slightly odd El Clasico. There are usually plenty of goals in the fixture but the sides look short of their usual attacking effectiveness.

Bettors anticipating a more subdued match in terms of goal scoring should consider backing under 3.5 goals to be scored in the game at 1.657*.

Messi leads Barcelona for both goals and assists so his unavailability will undoubtedly effect the side. Equally, whilst Real have not been at their best they have perhaps not been as poor as their critics claim.

The Real Madrid +0.75 handicap is available at 1.628* and could offer value to bettors expecting Real’s performance to improve or Messi’s injury to adversely affect the hosts.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice. 

Odds subject to change

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