La Liga leaders Barcelona host struggling Valladolid in our highlight game this weekend. Six points clear at the top, Barca will be hopeful of victory against 15th-placed Valladolid, but the champions have drawn their last three games and will have one eye on their trip to Lyon in the Champions League. Is there value in the Barcelona vs. Valladolid odds? Read on to find out.
A close look at Barcelona vs. Valladolid odds
The 1X2 odds make Barcelona the overwhelming favourites, with the odds implying the home side have around an 84% chance of winning the game, compared to Valladolid who have roughly a 4% chance of winning.
Date: Saturday February 16
Time: 19:45 UTC kickoff
Venue: Camp Nou
Barcelona vs. Valladolid statistics
- Barcelona expected goals for per game: 2.20
- Barcelona expected goals against per game: 1.70
- Barcelona expected points per game: 1.85
- Valladolid expected goals for per game: 0.98
- Valladolid expected goals against per game: 1.43
- Valladolid expected points per game: 1.05
Barcelona vs. Valladolid predicted lineups
Barcelona predicted lineup
4-3-3: ter Stegen; Roberto, Pique, Lenglet, Semedo; Rakitic, Busquets, Vidal; Coutinho, Messi, Suarez
Traveling to Lyon in the Champions League next week, Ernesto Valverde will no doubt have one eye on Tuesday’s away leg – so may choose to rest or rotate some of his squad.
In terms of injuries and suspensions, Barca have no concerns but remain without central midfielder Rafinha, centre-back Samuel Umtiti, substitute goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen, and central midfielder Arthur.
Valladolid predicted lineup
4-4-2: Masip; Moyano, Kiko, Fernandez, Nacho; Keko, Michel, Ruben Alcaraz, Hervias; Plano, Guardiola
Keeping a clean sheet for the first time in 11 games in their last game at home to Villarreal, Valladolid manager Sergio may well stick with the same team that started Friday’s 0-0 draw.
Like Barcelona, Valladolid have no fresh injury concerns – with the exception of defensive midfielder Luismi and centre-forward Duje Cop.
Inform your Barcelona vs. Valladolid prediction
Drawing their last La Liga game, 0-0 at away to Athletico Bilbao, Barcelona failed to score for the first time in 37 league games – a streak stretching back to their last 0-0 draw against Getafe at the Camp Nou on February 11, 2018.
Scoring a total of 99 goals in that time, which included 60 at home and 39 away, 35 came courtesy of Lionel Messi, 24 from Luis Suarez, 12 from Philippe Coutinho and 11 from Ousmane Dembele.
Having scored 60 La Liga goals this season, Barca have dwarfed all other teams in terms of goals scored, having 20 more goals than second-highest scorers Real Madrid.
Worryingly for Sergio and his players however, four of their six total La Liga victories came in a period of just 24 days between September 27 and October 21
In terms of the individual scoring charts, Barca have the two highest goal scorers in La Liga in the form of Messi and Suarez.
With an incredible 21 goals and 10 assists in 21 games, Messi has an expected goals per 90 minutes ( xG90) of 0.76, while Suarez, who has 15 goals and 5 assists in 22 outings, has an xG90 of 0.80.
To put things into perspective, Girona striker Cristhian Stuani (the third-highest scorer in La Liga) has 12 goals in 20 games – with an xG90 of just 0.44.
By their own exceptionally high standards, Barcelona are experiencing a dip in form, having drawn their last two league games
By their own exceptionally high standards however, Barcelona are experiencing a dip in form, having drawn their last two league games. The aforementioned 0-0 at Bilbao came after a 2-2 draw at home to Valencia.
Coming back from 2-0 down to draw thanks to a Messi brace, it was the first time Barca had dropped points in the league since November 24 – when they were held to a 1-1 draw at Atletico Madrid.
Six points ahead of second place Real Madrid, Barcelona are still heavily favoured to retain their La Liga title – and anything other than a victory at the weekend would represent a big upset.
Playing their first season in Spain’s top flight since 2013/2014, Valladolid have only played Barcelona once since that time, which was when they hosted the champions back in August in the reverse of this fixture.
Ending in a 1-0 victory for Barca, thanks to a Dembele goal, Valladolid had an injury-time equaliser ruled out after a video assistant referee review.
Currently sitting 15th in La Liga, Valladolid have done well this season to remain very much in the fight for survival. With 26 points from 23 games, they sit three points above the relegation zone.
Much of their success so far this season has come away from home, where they’ve won three and drawn five from 12 games – the seventh best away return in La Liga.
Worryingly for Sergio and his players however, four of their six total La Liga victories came in a period of just 24 days between September 27 and October 21. While they’ve just picked up just 11 points from a possible 42 since.
Barcelona vs. Valladolid: Where is the value?
Despite the close encounter earlier in the season, and their recent slipups, Barcelona are still Barcelona - so odds of 1.147* probably won’t represent much value to bettors.
Quiet by their own standards in recent games, Barcelona are a team of too high a calibre to be stifled for a third La Liga game in a row, so a bet on them to win the -2 and -2.5 handicap at 1.961* could offer value.
While the likes of Messi, Suarez, and Coutinho all on the pitch should ensure a high-scoring game, bettors might be tempted by the over 3.5 in the Total Goals market for Barcelona vs. Valladolid – which currently stands at 1.934*.