With the international break now over, and domestic soccer recommencing, third place Atletico Madrid host top of the table Barcelona in this week’s highlight La Liga match. Barcelona suffered a shock home defeat to Real Betis in their last league game, so will they recover against even tougher opposition? Read on for some expert insight to inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction.
A close look at the Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona odds
The Money Line odds make Barcelona the slight favourites, with the odds implying the away side have around a 42%* chance of winning this game, compared to Atletico Madrid who have roughly 30%* chance of winning.
Over 2 and 2.5 goals is also slightly favoured at 1.854* - this Total Goals figure is slightly suggest the number of goals in the game will be slightly below the league average (La Liga average is 2.53 goals per match this season).
Time: Sunday November 24 19:45 UTC kickoff
Venue: Wanda Metropolitano
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona statistics
- Atletico Madrid are yet to lose a home La Liga game (W5 D1)
- Atletico Madrid have conceded just three goals at home all season in La Liga
- Barcelona haven’t lost to Atletico Madrid in La Liga since April 2014
- There’s been an average of 2.3 goals per game in the last six La Liga meetings
- Atletico Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.09
- Atletico Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.00
- Barcelona expected goals for per game: 2.49
- Barcelona expected goals against per game: 1.43
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona predicted lineups
Atletico Madrid predicted lineup
4-4-2: Oblak; Arias, Godin, Montero, Luis; Correa, Koke, Hernandez, Saul; Kalinic, Griezmann
Diego Godin and Stefan Savic remain side-lined, while Diego Costa is a major doubt with a foot injury. Jose Gimenez, Lucas Hernández, and Koke are all back to training and should all be fit in time – though may not all start.
Barcelona predicted lineup
4-3-3: ter Stegen; Roberto, Pique, Lenglet, Alba: Vidal, Busquets, Arthur; Messi, Suarez, Dembele
Thomas Vermalen, Sergi Samper, and Philippe Coutinho will all miss Saturday’s game through injury. While Ivan Rakitic will be suspended after being sent off in Barcelona’s last La Liga game against Real Betis. Receiving two yellow cards, his ban will last one game. Arturo Vidal is expected to replace him.
Inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction
With just one point separating 1st place Barcelona, from Sevilla, Atletico Madrid and Alvaes in fourth, Saturday’s encounter has the potential to blow the La Liga title race wide open – and both teams come into the fixture on the back of very different results.
Now unbeaten in their last nine La Liga games, Atletico Madird defender Diego Godin scored a 90th minute winner to beat Athletic Bilbao 3-2 in Los Colchoneros’ last league outing, having beaten Borussia Dortmund 2-0 in the Champions League four days previous.
Barcelona, on the other hand, suffered a shock 4-3 defeat at home to Real Betis in La Liga – after conceding a late equaliser to draw 1-1 away to Inter Milan in the Champions League.
Any form of momentum then should be with Atletico, though the international break may have slowed some of that down.
Despite their proximity in the table, Atletico’s La Liga record against Barcelona is not good. They haven’t beaten them in a league game since April 2014
Looking at the wider picture, Atletico are yet to lose a league game at home, winning five and drawing one, conceding just three goals in the process. While Barcelona have lost just once on the road all season, drawing once and winning the remaining three.
Despite their proximity in the table, however, Atletico’s La Liga record against Barcelona is not good – and they haven’t beaten them in a league game since April 2014.
Saturday’s game should showcase two similar strength teams, with very contrasting styles of play and ways of winning.
Barcelona have scored 34 goals in La Liga this season, 10 more than second-placed Sevilla, but have conceded 18 – the 6th worst defence in the division.
With an expected goals (xG) total of 29.98, Barcelona are scoring more goals than expected, and while one might suspect this stat could catch up with them, it’s worth considering that world class strikers like Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez will nearly always outperform their xG.
At the other end of the pitch, their xGA is 17.23 which suggests their troubled defence won’t make any substantial improvements anytime soon.
In contrast, Madrid have certainly made the most of the chances they’ve created – scoring 16 goals from an xG of just 13.16. With the worry here for Atletico being that eventually their forward line will return to a normal rate of scoring.
Currently the best defence in the league, having conceded just eight goals all season, Atletico’s xGA is 12.00 – which also heavily suggests their stern defence is more temporary than permanent.
The league’s best attack versus the league’s best defence, a good indicator of the difference in approach is that Barcelona currently have the two highest scorers in the division, Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez have nine goals in 10 and 12 games respectively, while Atletico Madrid’s top scorer Antoine Griezmann has just three goals in 12 games – the 23rd best return in La Liga.
Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona: Where is the value?
Based on their historical dominance over Atletico Madrid, it could be argued that Barcelona are justified 1X2 favourites over Atletico Madrid. So odds of 2.330* could represent value - especially as the market will likely be focusing on Barcelona’s recent poor result (as opposed to their impressive 5-1 win over Real Madrid just two weeks prior).
Away from this fixture specifically, bettors may look to capitalise on Barcelona’s recent struggles in the league. Given the proximity between the two teams, and the lasting impact the result may have on the La Liga table, odds of 3.110* for Barcelona not winning the league could change drastically come full time on Sunday.