Atletico Madrid play Valencia this weekend in the highlight fixture from La Liga. Looking for value in the Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia odds? Read on to inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia prediction.
A close look at the Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia odds
The odds suggest a comfortable win for Atleti with the home side strong favourites to win the match.
Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia: What you need to know
- Time: Sunday 4th February 19:45 GMT kickoff
- Venue: Estadio Metropolitano de Madrid
- Atletico Madrid are undefeated at home this season (six wins, four draws)
- Felipe Luis (injury) unavailable for Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid are undefeated in their last six matches vs Valencia
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in six of Valencia’s last seven La Liga games
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in each of Atelti’s games against top-five La Liga sides this season.
- Atletico Madrid have conceded a La Liga low nine goals from 20.52 expected goals against
- Valencia have outscored their expected goals (33.38) by a La Liga high 8.62 goals
Inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia prediction
La Liga’s most efficient attack meets its best defence in this weekend’s big game. Valencia’s third position is largely due to the ability of their strikers to convert chances into goals. They have scored 8.62 above their expected goals this season. This potential over performance may be coming to an end, however, as they have scored below their expected goals their last two games.
In contrast, Atletico Madrid owe their current second position to conceding less than their expected goals. Goalkeeper Jan Oblak has consistently prevented teams from scoring to expectations. This season they have conceded only 9 goals in 21 games and will need to be just as solid to secure a result on Sunday.
The head-to-head record between the two teams is very much in favour of the Madrid site. Atleti are unbeaten in their last six games against Valencia and have won six of their last seven home games against the Valencian side.
Atletico Madrid vs. Valencia: Where is the value?
Looking at this matchup it is hard to argue against a home win.
Valencia’s great form during the first half of the season always looked to be unsustainable. Recent results are an indication of them regressing to the mean and they are unlikely to remain in their current third position.
It could be argued that stellar Atletico’s defensive record shows similar signs of overperformance. However, the fact that Atleti have conceded at a level far below their expected goals in each of the last three La Liga seasons demonstrates that this performance level is sustainable, especially with the world-class talent of Jan Oblak in goal.
Predictions of a high-scoring game may be misguided given Atleti’s reluctance to overcommit against top sides. There have been under 2.5 goals scored in each of their games against top-five La Liga sides this season. However, they have since added the attacking threat of Diego Costa to the team.
If Costa and Griezmann can find opportunities or Valencia rediscover their ability to score from improbable positions this record could change on Sunday. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.826* and could offer value if Costa and co are on form.
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