Feb 7, 2019
Feb 7, 2019

La Liga preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid

Madrid derby odds

Inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid prediction

Analysing the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid stats

La Liga preview: Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid

Third-placed Real Madrid make the short trip to the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium to face second-placed Atletico Madrid in La Liga’s highlight fixture this weekend. A win for Santiago Solari’s men will see them leapfrog their bitter rivals, while a win for Los Rojiblancos will keep their fading title hopes alive for the time being at least. Is there value in the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds? Read on to find out.

A close look at the Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid odds*

Madrid derby odds

-

1X2

Handicap

Total

Atletico Madrid

2.389

 0 and -0.5  2.040

Over 2 and 2.5 

Under 2 and 2.5 

1.862

2.040

Real Madrid

3.230

0 and -0.5  1.877 

-

-

Draw

3.370

-

-

-

The 1X2 odds make Atletico Madrid slight favourites, with the odds implying the home side have around a 40% chance of winning the Madrid derby, compared to Real who have roughly a 30% chance of winning.

The Total Goals is set at 2.5, with the odds suggesting a relatively low scoring contest with Over odds of 2.070* and Under odds of 1.833*. The La Liga average per match this season is 2.57.

Date: Saturday February 9

Time: 15:15 UTC kickoff

Venue: Wanda Metropolitano Stadium

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid statistics

  • Atletico Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.34
  • Atletico Madrid expected goals against per game: 0.99
  • Atletico Madrid expected points per game: 1.58
  • Real Madrid expected goals for per game: 1.76
  • Real Madrid expected goals against per game: 1.24
  • Real Madrid expected points per game: 1.73
  • Last eight games: Atletico Madrid 2, Real Madrid 2, Draw 4

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid predicted lineups

Atletico Madrid predicted lineup

4-4-2: Oblak (GK), Juanfran, Gimenez, Hernandez, Luis; Lemar, Saul, Hernandez, Koke; Griezmann, Morata

Free of any midweek Copa del Rey responsibilities following their elimination from the competition at the hands of Girona, Atletico should be able to welcome back midfielders Koke and Saul Niguez for Saturday’s derby.

The Spanish duo both missed Sunday’s 1-0 defeat against Real Betis but reports from inside the Atletico camp claims both are scheduled to return to face Real Madrid.

While neither player was involved in first-team training on Monday, both have worked on their fitness and are expected to be brought up to speed over the course of the week.

Meanwhile left-back Filipe Luis, who returned from injury as a substitute last weekend, is also expected to start – with new signing Alvaro Morata preparing to make his home debut.

Real Madrid predicted lineup

4-3-3: Courtois; Carvajal, Nacho, Ramos, Reguilon; Modric, Casemiro, Kroos; Bale, Benzema, Junior

On Wednesday night, Real Madrid traveled away to bitter rivals Barcelona in the Copa del Rey  The game ended 1-1 after a spectacular Malcom strike cancelled out an early Lucas Vazquez strike, assisted brilliantly by Karim Benzema.  

Midfielder Toni Kroos, who was rested in last Sunday’s 3-0 win at home to Alaves, but started against Barcelona, is expected to return. While right-back Daniel Carvajal and centre-back Raphael Varane should both feature after returning from their respective suspensions.

Inform your Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid prediction

Separated by just two points and sitting in second and third respectively, Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid has become one of the most hotly anticipated games in European soccer in recent years.

Behind Real’s shadow for the entirety of the 2000’s, Atletico have more than matched their oldest rivals on several occasions in recent years, though are still haunted by both the 2014 and 2016 Champions League finals – which among other things - saw penalties and a 93rd minute Sergio Ramos equaliser help Real to the trophy on both occasions.

Facing each other twice already this season, Europa League winners Atletico beat Champions League winners Real 4-2 in the European Super Cup back in mid-August – with a Diego Costa brace helping them to a 4-2 win after extra time.

While September’s meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu finished 0-0.

Had Real won that meeting, they would have gone top of La Liga, but instead, lost their next three league games which eventually saw manager Julen Lopetegui sacked.

Dropping down as far as ninth in the table, Real’s form has drastically improved since the appointment of Santiago Solari and they now know a win at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium will see them leapfrog Atletico into second place.

With Barcelona now six points clear at La Liga’s summit, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely they’ll be caught – meaning second place perhaps represents the most realistic achievement for both clubs from Spain’s capital this season.

Owing to how evenly matched it appears Atletico and Real have become, both teams have a near identical record when looking back at their past six games – with the form table reading won four, drawn one and lost one for the pair – with an equal goal difference of six.

Losing 1-0 to Real Betis on Sunday, Atletico lost their first La Liga game since September – but if you factor the Copa del Rey into the equation, they now have just three wins in their last seven games following two draws to Girona and one to Sevilla.

Much praise is often heaped on how hardworking and disciplined at the back Diego Simeone’s team generally play, however, there have been signs in recent weeks of player fatigue as well as a few injuries in key positions – which won’t be helped by the return of Champions League football in the coming weeks.

While their last meeting was a catalyst of sorts for their worst spell all season, Real know a win this weekend would see them become Barca’s closest challengers for the first time in months

Worryingly, Atletico’s expected points (xTS) total of 34.94 is well below their actual tally of 44, with an expected goals (xG) total of 29.58 compared to a goals scored total of 32, and expected goals against  (xGA) total of 21.95 compared to a goals against total of 14.

So even despite their ability to grind out results, one should expect their performances and results to eventually regress – even if only slightly.

Still without Diego Costa, it’s hoped new arrival Alvaro Morata can hit the ground running – though he performed poorly on his debut and struggled for confidence in his last few weeks at Chelsea.

In contrast, Real have experience an uplift in their attacking abilities in recent weeks and have begun to look a lot more like their old selves, having scored 15 goals in their last five games in all competitions.

With an expected goals tally of 38.91, compared to the 37 they’ve scored – one could reasonably expect Real to keep up their current rate of scoring, and they may even improve upon it.

Despite their extended suffering from the loss of Cristiano Ronaldo in the summer, Karim Benzema now has six goals in his last five appearances in all competitions, with 18-year-old Vinicius Junior capping off a string of eye-catching performances with his first La Liga goal since November in the win against Alaves.

While Gareth Bale is now beginning to pick up the pace again following his injury.

In terms of expected goals against (xGA), Real have a tally of 27.42 compared to an actual goals against total of 26 – meaning they’re also conceding goals at a rate we’d generally expect.

While their last meeting was a catalyst of sorts for their worst spell all season, Real know a win this weekend would see them become Barca’s closest challengers for the first time in months.

With the pair meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu at the beginning of next month, and Atletico not facing Barcelona again until they travel to the Nou Camp in early April, Sunday’s Madrid derby could yet have a defining impact on the La Liga season as a whole.

Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid: Where is the value?

With the 1X2 odds making Atletico Madrid the slight favourites at 2.380*, a Draw at 3.390* may represent better value to bettors given the similar recent form shared between the two teams, as well as historically the Madrid Derby being a very even-handed contest in recent seasons.

While under 2.5 is favoured in the Total Goals market at 1.833*, Real’s recent period of prolific scoring, and the real possibility of Atletico’s strong defence beginning to regress, over at 2.070* may also offer value to bettors.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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