Roma play AC Milan this weekend in the highlight fixture from Serie A. Looking for value in the Roma vs. AC Milan odds? Read on to inform your Roma vs. AC Milan prediction.
A close look at the Roma vs. AC Milan odds
The odds suggest a home win for Roma with the home side slight favourites on the money line. AC Milan are favourites on the +1 handicap at 1.500* so it is expected to be a close game.
Roma vs. AC Milan stats: What you need to know
Time: Sunday 25th February 14:00 GMT kickoff
Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Roma’s Serie A home record: eight wins, one draw, four losses
- AC Milan’s Serie A away record: five wins, three draws, five losses
- Roma have scored less than their expected goals by 7.19, a Serie A high
- Cengiz Ünder has scored five goals in his last four appearances for Roma
- Edin Dzeko has scored one goal in his last four games from 2.5 expected goals
- AC Milan are undefeated in their last ten matches in all competitions
- AC Milan average just one goal per game away from home (12 goals in 12 games)
Inform your Roma vs. AC Milan prediction
Two of Italy’s biggest sides meet in this weekend’s big game from Serie A. After a poor start AC Milan have recovered to find themselves nine points behind Sunday’s opponents.
Roma’s title challenge has all but ended after a winless January. They have recovered their form with three wins in their last three games however, making them favourites for third place.
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AC Milan, in contrast, were in the bottom half of the table at the start of January. The Rossoneri recovered their form with seven undefeated Serie A games and now have an outside chance of a Champions League position.
Roma suffered from a lack of goals during their run of six losses. They were one of Europe’s most prolific attacks last season but only scored at a rate of one a game during their nightmare run.
Perhaps they are missing Mo Salah’s ability to score and assist goals. The Egyptian provided a number of assists to Edin Dzeko last season. The Bosnian forward is on course to fall well short of last season’s 29 goal haul.
Roma’s recent return to form has been powered by impressive scoring from Cengiz Ünder. The young Turkish winger has scored four goals in his last three Serie A appearances. Should he continue this form he will take a lot of the scoring pressure away from Dzeko.
Roma vs. AC Milan: Where is the value?
A home win is only marginally the most likely result according to the odds so the game is very much in the balance.
Roma have scored below their expected goals by a Serie A high this season. Much of this is down to Dzeko’s occasionally wayward finishing. Ünder has been a revelation of late but it is not sustainable for him to continue to score over a goal a game from an expected goals per 90 total of 0.26.
AC Milan have conceded just four in their last seven Serie A matches. The defence is finally performing to the level expected of talents like Leonardo Bonucci and Gianluigi Donnarumma. As a result odds of 1.925* on Roma to score under 1.5 goals seem to offer value.
AC Milan are available at 1.990* on the +0.5 handicap. Given their form over the past ten games and the ability within their squad covering the prospect of both the AC Milan win and draw results could be a sensible move.
To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.