Oct 29, 2018
Oct 29, 2018

Premier League preview: Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Arsenal vs. Liverpool odds

Inform your Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction

Arsenal vs. Liverpool betting: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Arsenal vs. Liverpool

Liverpool travel to Emirates Stadium to face Arsenal this Saturday in our highlight Premier League fixture. Looking for value in the Arsenal vs. Liverpool odds? Read on to inform your Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction.

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A close look at the Arsenal vs. Liverpool odds

The Money Line odds make Liverpool favourites, despite not having home advantage, with the implied probability of a Liverpool win at nearly 45%.*

The over/under total is set at 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with over 3 goals currently priced at 1.877*.

Time: Saturday, November 3, 17:30 UTC kick-off

Venue: Emirates Stadium

Arsenal vs. Liverpool predicted lineups

Arsenal predicted lineup

(4-2-3-1): Leno; Lichtsteiner, Mustafi, Sokratis, Monreal; Torreira, Xhaka; Mkhitaryan, Ozil, Aubameyang; Lacazette.

Arsenal team news:

Both Nacho Monreal and Sead Kolasinac could return after recovering from injury.

Hector Bellerin will face a late fitness test after picking up a muscle injury against Crystal Palace.

Liverpool predicted lineup

(4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Milner, Wijnaldum, Henderson; Mane, Salah, Firmino.

Liverpool team news:

Both Naby Keita and in Jordan Henderson are in the running to be fit for the match. Elsewhere, Liverpool have no major injury concerns.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool expected goals stats

• Arsenal expected goals per game: 1.43

• Arsenal expected goals against per game: 1.41

• Arsenal expected points per game: 1.38

• Liverpool expected goals per game: 2.01

• Liverpool expected goals against per game: 0.75

• Liverpool expected points per game: 2.11

Inform your Arsenal vs. Liverpool prediction

Arsenal saw their eleven match winning streak come to an end at Crystal Palace on Sunday with a subdued display. The Gunners have come a long way under Unai Emery in a short space of time, but the game against Liverpool will provide an accurate reflection of how far they have progressed.

Despite the North London club’s good form, Emery’s side are lucky to be so high in the table according the expected goals stats. Arsenal have their forward players to thank with clinical finishing allowing them to be victorious over Everton (xG: ARS 0.81 – 1.04 EVE), Watford (xG: ARS 1.80 – 3.14 WAT) and Fulham (xG: FUL 1.46 – 1.22 ARS) in previous matches - a rate they cannot sustain moving forward.

"Games involving these two teams in the Premier League have seen 27 goals scored in the last five matches."

The Gunners have the fourth highest goal difference in the league, but have an expected goal difference that is just the 11th best and will need to improve on this moving forward if they are to continue to get positive results. The London club have not led in any league game at half-time, illustrating the importance of a good start, something that Emery and his team must improve if they are to be successful against Liverpool, who possess one of the best attacks in Europe.

None of Arsenal’s opponents since Manchester City and Chelsea in the first two games of the season have taken advantage of chances the Gunners have been allowing teams to create. But against Liverpool, it is likely they will be punished should they continue to start below par and assessing Arsenal, after 12 matches, it is certainly something bettors should note.

Liverpool continued their fine start to the season last weekend with a comfortable 4-1 victory over Cardiff. It means the Reds shot back to the top of the table and equalled their best start to a Premier League season, with 26 points from 10 games.

The Reds had more than 80% possession in the match and attempted 819 passes in the game, which highlights how much of a dominant display it was from Jurgen Klopp’s men. Mo Salah was back amongst the goals which is worrying news for Arsenal as the Egyptian striker is beginning to hit the sort of form we have come to expect from last season’s top Premier League goalscorer.

Salah is top of the table when it comes to expected goals, meaning that it was only a matter of time before the goals started to flow. If a player of Salah’s quality can regularly get on the end of chances, with his xG average, the goals will eventually arrive and this is exactly what we are beginning to see.

Arsenal’s winning run has masked defensive deficiencies and you would not expect the Liverpool front three to be so forgiving, meaning the probability of goals at Emirates Stadium is high. According to the Opta stats, Arsenal have made the joint-most errors leading to opposition shots in the Premier League - level with Fulham who have been poor all season – and this is something Liverpool will be looking to take advantage of on Saturday.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool betting: Where is the value?

Based on form Liverpool are justified 1X2 favourites, but Emirates Stadium is not an easy ground to come away with all their points, so it is worth bettors looking to alternative markets.

The Total Goals mark is set at three but the statistics show that this is warranted, as games involving these two teams in the Premier League have seen 27 goals scored in the last five matches. Additionally, Liverpool have the second highest xG in the Premier League and will come to London looking for all three points so bettors should witness an attacking encounter and odds of 1.862* on over 3 goals could represent value.

For bettors looking to other alternative markets it is also worth considering corners betting. Arsenal home games average 11.2 corners, with the average number of corners in games in the Premier League this season averaging 10.1, and with the attacking talent on display from both sides the probability is high that there will be chances at both ends.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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