Jan 14, 2019
Jan 14, 2019

Premier League preview: Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Arsenal vs. Chelsea odds

Inform your Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction

Arsenal vs. Chelsea: Where is the value?

Premier League preview: Arsenal vs. Chelsea

Our highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend comes from Emirates Stadium as Arsenal take on Chelsea in an intriguing London derby. Looking for value in the Arsenal vs. Chelsea odds? Read on to inform your Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction.

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A close look at the Arsenal vs. Chelsea odds

Even without home advantage, the 1X2 Odds make Chelsea favourites at odds of 2.410* to beat Arsenal. The implied probability of a win for Maurizio Sarri’s side is around 40%.*

The Over/Under Total is set at 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with over 3 Goals currently priced at 2.060.

Time: Saturday, January 19, 17:30 UTC kick-off

Venue: Emirates Stadium

Arsenal vs. Chelsea predicted lineups

Arsenal predicted lineup

(3-4-3) Leno, Sokratis, Mustafi, Koscielny, Bellerin, Torreira, Xhaka, Kolasinac, Ozili, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

Arsenal team news:

Danny Welbeck and Rob Holding are long-term absentees, whilst Henrikh Mkhitaryan remains sidelined.

Chelsea predicted

(4-3-3): Arrizabalaga; Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso; Jorginho, Kante, Kovacic; Pedro, Willian, Hazard

Chelsea team news:

Alvaro Morata's appearance is still doubtful, while Ruben Loftus-Cheek is also likely to miss out.

Pedro will be pushing for a start after coming back from injury, but the impressive Callum Hudson-Odoi will be looking to keep his place.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea expected goals stats

• Arsenal expected goals per game: 1.61

• Arsenal expected goals against per game: 1.39

• Arsenal expected points per game: 1.53

• Chelsea expected goals per game: 1.76

• Chelsea expected goals against per game: 0.85

• Chelsea expected points per game: 2.05

Inform your Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction

Arsenal enter the fixture with Chelsea this weekend after coming off a disappointing result against West Ham. The Gunners didn’t manage to get any kind of control in the game and this kind of performance will be worrying for Arsenal fans. There was no real urgency or fluidity in their play and they will need to perform at a higher level against Chelsea to avoid a further dent to their top-four ambitions.

Despite some recent poor results, the Gunners have been impressive when they have home advantage, but their away form is what has let them down. They've won just one of their last six away fixtures, averaging just 1.33 xGF in the process – which is a poor statistic for a side of Arsenal’s caliber.

According to expected goals, Arsenal have over-performed this season, mainly in attack, so recent low scoring weeks for the North London club should not come as a surprise. The level of over-performance they were producing earlier in the season was unsustainable, so recent results and form suggest Unai Emery’s side are about where they should be in the table.

"There have been over 2.5 goals in 64% of games involving Arsenal in the Premier League this season, and over 2.5 goals in 59% of games involving Chelsea"

Chelsea increased the gap over Arsenal with a win against Newcastle United last weekend despite not being at their best. The Blues will look at this fixture as a chance to end one of their main rivals’ hopes of a top four finish, so you would expect them to set up tactically to secure all three points.

When analysing the top six sides Chelsea have scored the least amount of goals, yet are second to Manchester City in shots taken, which highlights that the Blues are simply not being clinical enough in front of goal. The over reliance on Eden Hazard to win them games has been evident this season, and it will be imperative to their chances of champions league qualification that the talented Belgian stays fit throughout the campaign.

In recent weeks the West London club have been controlling possession, but there has been little or no end product to match the kind of style of play Sarri has been demanding from his players. In contrast, Arsenal have been clinical at the Emirates on numerous occasions and this should set up an open fixture this weekend with both defences being tested.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea betting: Where is the value?

The apparent value here is to look for goals. London Derbies are always an interesting fixture and this match should provide plenty of attacking play from both sides.

There have been over 2.5 goals in 64% of games involving Arsenal in the Premier League this season, and over 2.5 goals in 59% of games involving Chelsea (14 out of 22 games this season involving Arsenal have finished with 3 or more goals). The average percentage of games where there have been over 2.5 goals in the Premier League is 55%, so the statistics suggest there could be potential value in betting on over 3 goals at odds of 2.060*.

Analysing the 1x2 betting odds, a win against Chelsea is crucial for Arsenal’s top four odds, and they cannot afford to drop points, so with home advantage, odds of 1.847 on the 0 and +0.5 handicap looks like a potential value bet on the Gunners – especially when you consider their impressive home statistics.

For bettors looking to alternate goal markets, over one goal to be scored in the match should offer value at 1.649*. Arsenal’s defence has been poor all season and with the attacking talent on display at the Emirates this weekend it’s hard to not see both sides conceding at some stage.

To make the most of our best value odds make sure to read more of Pinnacle’s expert betting advice.

Odds subject to change

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