The Elo ratings were originally invented by Hungarian master level chess player Arpad Elo as a way of comparing the skill levels of chess players. Its strong predictive power soon got the attention of sport analysts, who have since adapted it for several sports and it is now widely used in assessing the performance of soccer teams.
The Elo system has been used for a number of sports. In previous articles we compared FIFA rankings to Elo ratings to find Elo was the clear winner and also explained how Elo ratings can be used in tennis betting. With the new Premier League season ahead, we are now focusing on how to apply Elo ratings in the Premier League to make more sophisticated betting decisions.
The theory behind Elo ratings
The aim of Elo ratings in soccer is to measure the relative strength levels of the teams. Each club has a single Elo value for each point in time, with higher figures indicating stronger teams.
When clubs play against each other, the winning side takes points from the loser, with the exact number of points determined by the Elo difference between the two teams. If a team plays an opponent who is significantly weaker and loses, the rating would reduce a lot more than if the team lost to an opponent who is only slightly weaker.
Similarly, beating much stronger opponents earns a team more points than beating only slightly stronger teams. In case of a draw, the lower rated club will take points from the higher rated club, thus making the system self-correcting.
Elo ratings of the Premier League Clubs
|
2015/16 EPL |
Club |
Elo value |
|
4 |
Man City |
1854 |
|
2 |
Arsenal |
1845 |
|
1 |
Leicester |
1817 |
|
3 |
Tottenham |
1810 |
|
8 |
Liverpool |
1806 |
|
10 |
Chelsea |
1799 |
|
6 |
Man United |
1794 |
|
5 |
Southampton |
1784 |
|
7 |
West Ham |
1730 |
|
11 |
Everton |
1701 |
|
12 |
Swansea |
1694 |
|
9 |
Stoke |
1687 |
|
17 |
Sunderland |
1661 |
|
14 |
West Brom |
1651 |
|
Promoted |
Burnley |
1642 |
|
15 |
Crystal Palace |
1639 |
|
13 |
Watford |
1629 |
|
16 |
Bournemouth |
1625 |
|
Promoted |
Middlesbrough |
1600 |
|
Promoted |
Hull City |
1595 |
Updated August 10, 2016
Calculating the Elo exchange points
Here's how the basic calculation for Arsenal vs. Liverpool playing on Sunday, 14 August, for their opening match of the new Premier League season. According to Clubelo, Arsenal has a current rating of 1845 and Liverpool 1806.
By calculating 5% of their respective ranking, Arsenal will be risking 92.3 points, Liverpool 90.3, thus the total pot contains 182.6 points. Therefore, here are the three possible outcomes:
- Arsenal wins. Their ratings increases by 90.3 to 1935.3 and Liverpool’s rating decreases to 1715.7.
- Liverpool wins. Their rating increases by 92.3 to 1898.3 and Arsenal’s rating decreases to 1752.7.
- Draw. The pot (182.6) is divided equally between the two teams 91.3:91.3 resulting in a slight increase to 1807 for Liverpool and a slight decrease to 1844 for Arsenal.
Please note that the above calculations illustrate the basic calculation. To improve accuracy, the soccer Elo system is customised to include crucial sports specific variables, such as field advantage, goal difference and inter-league adjustments.
Using Elo ratings in betting
It is important to keep in mind is that the Elo method is solely based on past performance and therefore does not take into account factors such as a change or manager, addition of players etc. Despite criticism that the ratings only respond to such changes over time, the Elo ratings are widely used by bettors as a reliable statistical foundation for finding value bets, i.e. bets with positive expected value.
With the new Premier League season around the corner, the Elo ratings is one of the best tools soccer bettors can use in order to make educated betting decisions.
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