This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees AC Milan take on fellow European football chasers Fiorentina. Can AC Milan strengthen their league position? Will Fiorentina record back to back league wins for the first time since the start of the season? Read on to inform your AC Milan vs. Fiorentina prediction.
Live AC Milan vs. Fiorentina odds
The 1X2 odds suggest this will be a competitive contest for AC Milan, as they come in as marginal favourites with a 51% chance of securing a home win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5, with the the odds marginally suggesting a low scoring contest with the under odds of 1.917*.
Date – Saturday December 22
Time – 15:00 UTC
Venue – San Siro
AC Milan vs. Fiorentina predicted line-ups
AC Milan predicted line-up
4-4-2 – Donnarumma (GK), Calabria, Romagnoli, Zapata, Rodriguez, Suso, Mauri, Bertolacci, Calhanoglu, Cutrone, Higuian
Matteo Musacchio could make his return from injury after rupturing his cruciate ligament, whilst captain Alessio Romagnoli made his comeback from injury against Bologna on Tuesday evening.
Both Frank Kessie and Tiemoue Bakayoko, Milan’s first choice central midfield partnership, will miss the game through suspension. Jose Mauri, Andrea Bertolacci and Riccardo Montolivo could all come into AC Milan engine room as replacements for the suspended pair.
Giacomo Bonnaventura, Lucas Biglia and Mattia Caldara remain long term absentees.
Fiorentina predicted line-up
3-4-1-2 – Lafont (GK), Milinkovic, Pezzella, Hugo, Chiesa, Dabo, Gerson, Biraghi, Benassi, Simeone, Mirallas
Piolli’s switch of formation, prompted by a lack of positive results, from 4-3-3 to 3-4-2-1 proved successful against Empoli, so La Viola will be expected to line-up in a similar formation this weekend.
After scoring as a substitute last time out against Empoli, Bryan Dabo could be rewarded with a starting place in midfield whilst Nikola Milenkovic could return in defence after suspension. Christian Norgaard and Jordan Veretout will be be pushing for starts in midfield.
AC Milan vs. Fiorentina statistics
• AC Milan are unbeaten in their last five Serie A games against Fiorentina (W3, D2)
• Fiorentina’s last away victory against AC Milan was in November 2013
• Fiorentina have two wins from their last 10 Serie A matches matches (W2, D6, L2)
• There have been under 2.5 goals in four out of the last six league meetings between the two teams
• AC Milan have an xG per game of 1.36 and an xGA per game of 0.94
• Fiorentina have an xG per game of 1.57 and an xGA per game of 1.01
Inform your AC Milan vs. Fiorentina prediction
AC Milan welcome Fiorentina to the San Siro in what should be a very intriguing encounter between two teams chasing European soccer next season.
The Rossoneri come into the game with three draws and one win from their last four games, including back to back goalless games against Torino and Bologna. However, AC Milan find themselves performing above expectation and currently sit fourth in the league table.
Injuries had threatened to de-rail their season, especially in defence where they were without four centre-backs but AC Milan have preserved and utilised their entire squad to help them achieve positive results.
Perhaps it was those defensive injuries that have contributed to Milan’s struggles at the back. They are currently conceding at an average of more than one goal a game (1.13) - the highest of any team in the top four. However, AC Milan’s xGA is currently 0.94 (the third best in the league) so there is signs of promise in terms of their defensive output.
Conversely, AC Milan have been over performing in terms of expected goals, scoring three goals more than predicted. While this has arguably cancelled out their “bad luck” at the defensive end of the pitch, it isn’t sustainable. Milan will have to work on improving their attacking output if they want to continue pressing for a top four finish.
They will once more be relying on the playmaking and creativity of Suso, Serie A’s top assister, as well as the fledgling strike partnership between former Capocannonuere Gonzalo Higuain and academy graduate Patrick Cutrone to fire their team to victory on Saturday.
The suspensions to Kessie and Bakayoko could seriously hinder Milan’s ability to control the game in midfield with replacements Mauri and Bertolacci lacking in match sharpness after playing just four games each in all competitions. Montolivo is yet to make a single appearance this term.
La Viola had been on a terrible run of from before finally recording their first win in nine games. Goal scoring was a problem for Fiorentina, as they went on a run of seven games without scoring more than one goal, which resulted in five draws and two losses.
As a result, Fiorentina are matching their expected goals tally exactly, but with six goals in their last two matches prompted by a switch in formation from 4-3-3 to 3-4-1-2 to accommodate two strikers, perhaps Fiorentina have found a system to improve their attacking output.
Defensively, Fiorentina are also performing to expectation, conceding just one goal more than forecasted, but just as the formation switch has seemly improved their attacking output, defensively they conceded four goals in their last two matches and will need to improve in order to get a result on Saturday.
Fiorentina’s top scorer last season Giovanni Simeone may have finally started to re-find his from, after scoring two goals in two games following 10 games without a goal. Surprisingly, it has been box-to-box midfielder Marco Benassi who has been leading the scoring charts for La Viola, with six goals thus far, already beating his best ever goals return for a season.
AC Milan vs. Fiorentina: Where is the Value?
Bettors could look Handicap market as means of finding value given Fiorentina’s recent history in this fixture and their goal scoring inconsistencies with AC Milan at -1 currently priced at 2.910*.
However, if Fiorentina continue on their recent scoring trend against an AC Milan side that is averaging at least a goal a game, bettors can could opt for the Over/Under market and get over 2.5 goals at 1.980*
With two draws in four games between the two sides, bettors may see value at 2.300* for another stalemate in Milan.
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