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Jan 26, 2018
Jan 26, 2018

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Lazio

AC Milan vs Lazio odds

Inform your AC Milan vs Lazio prediction

The impact of missing players

Serie A preview: AC Milan vs. Lazio

AC Milan vs Lazio features as this weekend’s Serie A game of the week. AC Milan have endured a tough season whilst Lazio have exceeded expectations. Where is the value in the AC Milan vs Lazio odds? Read on for the information you need to make your own AC Milan vs. Lazio prediction.

What do the AC Milan vs. Lazio odds suggest?

AC Milan are slight money line favourites but the odds suggest this will be a close game. Lazio are favourites on the +0.5 handicap at 1.598* so the game is expected to be tight.

The total goals odds imply a low scoring game with under 3 goals to be scored available at 1.625*. AC Milan have only scored 27 goals so far this season so are unlikely to be free-scoring.

Lazio are Serie A’s top scorers with 57 goals so it will be up to them to take the attacking initiative. They are not expected to continue their strong goalscoring form however. Lazio to score over 1.25 goals is out at 2.070*.

Inform your AC Milan vs Lazio predictions

Much-fancied at the start of the season, AC Milan find themselves seventh in Serie A, 15 points behind Sunday’s visitors. AC Milan’s failure this season is largely due to a lack of goals. Lazio have conceded just three less than the Milan side but have scored more than double their total Serie A goals.

Nowhere is the difference in offensive capability more prominent than in the central striker position. Lazio’s Ciro Immobile has already scored 20 goals this season and has also managed to assist seven for his teammates.

In contrast, Milan’s summer signings in attack have struggled to provide the team with goals. The 20 million euro attacker Nikola Kalinic has produced just four goals whilst the 38 million euro investment in André Silva is yet to yield a Serie A goal. The expensive attackers have been outscored by midfielder Suso (five goals) whilst young forward Paulo Cutrone has chipped in with two strikes.

AC have performances have improved lately and they have won back-to-back Serie A games for the first time since September. It is unsurprising that their better performances have come from their solid defence rather than via offensive firepower.

Lazio have scored thirteen in their last three games and have failed to score just once since their opening day blank against SPAL.

The impact of missing players

Immobile alone has easily outscored the Milan forwards and Lazio have been able to spread more goals out around the team. In the recent 5-1 win over Chievo Immobile did get on the scoresheet and was replaced with an injury after 34 minutes.

This will be a concern for Lazio as their star player has a potential hamstring injury which may limit his involvement in this game. If he is ruled out then Lazio are still a potent attacking force, however any team would miss a player in Immobile’s form. Although they managed to score three against Udinese without Immobile his absence would be a blow to their chances at the San Siro.

AC Milan will themselves be missing the influential Ricardo Rodriguez through suspension. Ignacio Abate or Luca Antonelli will cover at left-back against the pace of Marusic or Jordan Lukaku in what could be a favourable match-up for Lazio.

If Milan persevere with the 4-3-3 formation they have deployed in recent matches then the replacement left-back is unlikely to receive much defensive support from right winger Hakan Calhanoglu. Whoever gets the nod at left-back will be regularly tested in one-on-one situations.

The potential absence of Immobile will certainly be of consideration for over/under bettors whilst handicap bettors will need to account for the absences of key men on both sides.

Odds subject to change

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