Aug 6, 2014
Aug 6, 2014

How influential is HFA in the Premier League?

How influential is HFA in the Premier League?
There are a number of tools bettors can utilise when looking to gain a betting advantage. One is Home Field Advantage, which shows what benefit a home team has. This soccer betting article highlights how influential HFA is in the Premier League.

It’s commonly understood that sports teams perform better at home than when they are away or at a neutral ground. For example, in the 2013/14 Premier League season 598 goals were scored by sides at home, while away teams found the back of the net just 454 times. That same distinction has emerged for every season since the football league’s inception in 1888.

If you’re looking for a way to calculate a team’s Home Field Advantage, just follow the steps in our Calculating Home Field Advantage article for one potential HFA metric. Otherwise, read on for HFA information concerning the Premier League.

Evidence of HFA in the Premier League

The table below shows a summary of every Premier League season, with home, away and draw percentages, as well as goals per game for home and away fixtures.

Historical Premier League Home & Away & Goals per game (GPG)
SeasonGamesHome Win (%)Away Win (%)Draw (%)Home GPGAway GPG
2013/2014 380 47 32 21 1.57 1.19
2012/2013 380 44 28 28 1.56 1.24
2011/2012 380 45 31 24 1.59 1.22
2010/2011 380 47 24 29 1.62 1.17
2009/2010 380 51 24 25 1.70 1.07
2008/2009 380 46 29 26 1.40 1.08
2007/2008 380 46 27 26 1.53 1.11
2006/2007 380 48 26 26 1.45 1.00
2005/2006 380 51 29 20 1.46 1.02
2004/2005 380 46 26 29 1.50 1.07
2003/2004 380 44 28 28 1.51 1.16
2002/2003 380 49 27 24 1.50 1.13
2001/2002 380 43 30 27 1.47 1.17
2000/2001 380 48 25 27 1.54 1.07
1999/2000 380 49 27 24 1.67 1.12
1998/1999 380 44 25 30 1.46 1.07
1997/1998 380 48 27 25 1.56 1.12
1996/1997 380 43 26 31 1.47 1.08
1995/1996 380 49 25 26 1.53 1.07
1994/1995 462 44 27 29 1.51 1.08
1993/1994 462 42 28 31 1.44 1.15
1992/1993 462 46 26 28 1.56 1.08
Average   46.36 27.14 26.55 1.53 1.11

The numbers may not seem surprising at first glance, but it is the consistency across 22 Premier League seasons that stands out. Over that period, there was only a 9% variation between home win rates, a smaller variation for away wins (8%) and a rise in the range for draws (11%).

Therefore Premier League teams consistently win nearly half of all home games (46%), while there is a 27% chance of a draw, and 27% for an away win. In short, it displays evidence for a home advantage in the Premier League.

HFA goal data for the Premier League

The table below showcases the HFA (in goals) of the 10 teams in the Premier League who have been present over the past six seasons. The figure represents the average goal difference for the teams when playing at home, and is predominantly positive:

Home Field Advantage (by goals) for the past 6 EPL seasons
Team2008/092009/102010/112011/122012/132013/14Average HFA
Arsenal 0.78 0.57 0.86 1.15 1.26 1.32 0.99
Aston Villa 0.31 0.68 0.37 -0.26 -0.26 -0.37 0.08
Chelsea 1.10 2.84 1.37 0.89 1.32 1.68 1.53
Everton 0.57 0.74 0.42 0.68 0.84 1.00 0.71
Liverpool 1.47 1.47 1.21 0.42 0.89 1.84 1.22
Man City 1.15 1.10 1.15 2.26 1.37 2.63 1.61
Man United 1.57 2.11 1.95 1.73 0.89 0.42 1.45
Stoke City 0.36 0.15 0.68 0.26 -0.05 0.53 0.32
Sunderland 0.21 0.68 -0.10 0.47 0.05 -0.32 0.17
Tottenham 0.57 1.47 0.58 1.15 0.58 0.37 0.79

A quick look at the above table shows some thought-provoking points relating to teams’ home performances. For example, the top performer at home over the last five years until last season was Manchester United. However over the last two seasons their HFA appears to be reducing.

Despite winning the 2012/13 EPL their HFA dropped from 1.73 goals per game in 2011/12 too just 0.89. Somewhat unsurprisingly – given David Moyes replaced Sir Alex Ferguson as manager of United following 26 years – this dropped further to 0.42 last season.

Bettors must decide whether or not this is a trend, or if now under new manager Louis Van Gaal and a subsequent player recruitment drive, United’s HFA will return to nearer their 1.45 goal average?

It’s also interesting to note Liverpool’s home performance. At 1.22 over six years, the Reds have the fourth-highest HFA in the league, despite four years of struggle in the Premier League – their home form far outweighed their league position in those years. Does this therefore highlight that the much talked about “Kop affect” could actually hold true?

Stoke City are another side who are traditionally difficult to tackle at home, however their six year HFA is one of the worst in the league at 0.32. Are biases regarding their home form just a hangover from another time? Or could you consider a 0.32 home field advantage good for a team of Stoke’s ability in the tough Premier League? The above questions are important for you to answer if you want to correctly use HFA data to place bets.

2013/14 HFA
TeamHFA
Arsenal 1.32
Aston Villa -0.37
Burnley 1.00*
Chelsea 1.68
Crystal Palace -0.26
Everton 1.00
Hull City -0.05
Leicester City 1.04*
Liverpool 1.84
Manchester City 2.63
Manchester United 0.42
Newcastle United -0.26
Queens Park Rangers 0.87*
Southampton 0.47
Stoke City 0.53
Sunderland -0.32
Swansea City 0.37
Tottenham Hotspur 0.37
West Bromwich Albion -0.16
West Ham United -0.05

*Stats from the Championship

Interestingly, every team that has been relegated from the Premier League in the past six seasons has had a negative HFA.

Goal-based HFA information has particular significance in Asian Handicap betting. If a team has a home handicap less than their Home Field Advantage, it might make a sensible bet – although this is just one of a number of factors to consider for a balanced betting strategy – click here to read what can influence soccer HFA.

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