Oct 24, 2018
Oct 24, 2018

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Roma

Napoli vs. Roma odds

Napoli vs. Roma statistics

Inform your Napoli vs. Roma prediction

Napoli vs. Roma: Where is the value?

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Roma

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A is the Derby del Sole, as title challengers Napoli take on Roma. Who will triumph in this heated rivalry? Read on to inform your Napoli vs. Roma prediction

Live Napoli vs. Roma odds

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Napoli come into the match as slight favourites against Roma (around 55% chance of winning implied by the odds). Roma had been in great form before last week’s defeat, but will back themselves to get a result away from home. The Total Goals market points towards a high-scoring contest with Over 2.5 & 3 Goals currently favoured at 1.869*.

Date – Sunday October 28

Time – 18:30 UTC

Venue - San Paolo

Napoli vs. Roma predicted line-ups

Napoli predicted line-up

4-4-1-1 – Karnezis (GK), Malcuit, Albiol, Koulibaily, Hysaj, Ruiz, Hamsik, Allan, Callejon, Insigne, Milik

Carlo Ancelotti is known for rotating his squad and formation and has certainly lived up to his reputation thus far, refusing to name an unchanged line-up for any game and switching between 4-3-3, 4-4-2 and 4-4-1-1.

Simone Verdi picked up a thigh injury last time out against Udinese and is unlikely to recover in time, paving the way for Fabian Ruiz (who scored when he replaced the injured Verdi) to start on the left hand side. Insigne faces a fitness battle after missing the last fixture.

Roma predicted line-up

4-2-3-1 – Olsen (GK), Florenzi, Fazio, Manolas, Kolarov, N’Zonzi, Pellegrini, Under, Pastore, El Shaarawy, Dzeko

Experienced defender Kostas Manolas is likely to return to the heart of the defence whilst the experienced Aleksander Kolavrov could replace youngster Luca Pellegrini at left back after returning from a fractured foot. Javier Pastore is also likely to return to the starting line-up after returning from injury whilst Justin Kluivert will be pushing El Shaarawy and Under for a start out on the flanks.

Napoli vs. Roma statistics

• Roma are unbeaten in their last three away games to Napoli (W2 D1)

• Napoli have not defeated Roma at home in Serie A since November 2014

• There have been under 2.5 goals in five out of the last eight league meetings between the two sides

• The two sides have only drawn once in the last eight meetings

• Napoli have an xG per game of 1.82 and xGA of 1.07

• Roma have an xG per game of 1.87 and xGA of 1.25

Inform your Napoli vs. Roma prediction

Napoli vs. Roma, known as the Derby del Sole, is always an intriguing fixture in Serie A between the two most successful Italian clubs outside the north of Italy.

As shown by the noticeable lack of draws between the two, both teams appear intent on winning rather than settling for the point – and with the combined attacking efficiencies, the game looks set to decisive either way yet again.

Napoli have scored 18 goals in nine games which means they have averaged exactly two per match, thanks in part to the array of attacking options Ancelotti has at his disposal.

The three pronged attack under Sarri last season enabled Insigne, Mertens and Callejon to all reach double figures in the scoring charts. This season’s change of formation has enabled Insigne to flourish in a free role, yielding seven goals in ten appearances whilst the rotation of his strike partner between Mertens and Millik has led to three goals each for the pair.

Carlo Ancelotti is known for rotating his squad and formation and has certainly lived up to his reputation thus far.

Roma have been just as proficient in front of goal this term, with no less than 12 different scorers so far and last season’s top scorer Edin Dzeko averaging a goal every other game with five in ten appearances.

Both clubs are similarly matched both offensively and defensively, with Napoli scoring only two more and conceding two less then Roma so far, yet they find themselves seven points ahead in second whilst the Romans languish in seventh place.

The shock 2-0 defeats to Bologna and most recently SPAL last time out combined with frustrating home draws to Atalanta and Chievo have left the Gialorossi playing catch up already and they can ill afford another negative result if they are to qualify for European competition next season.

Napoli on the other hand have a 100% record at home thus far, with the only two defeats coming away against Sampdoria and Juventus. Despite their impressive home record, Napoli have struggled to beat Roma at home in recent seasons, with their last home victory being four years ago.

Insigne and Dzeko could be crucial in determining the outcome of the match, as the former is joint second top goal scorer in Serie A whilst the latter only has two in eight league appearances thus far – but bettors will look to Roma’s victory away to Napoli last season where Dzeko scored a superb brace and dominated the Neapolitans from start to finish.

Napoli vs. Roma: Where is the value?

Bettors may consider the Handicap market for this fixture with the Napoli -0.75 handicap currently priced at 2.050* and with Napoli averaging two goals per game thus far, not to mention a perfect home record, the Partenoepi have every chance of beating Roma by a comfortable scoreline.

The odds and statistics also do also suggest a high-scoring contest with the Over 2.75 market currently priced at 1.877* being of possible value to bettors, especially given the lack of draws between the two sides indicting both teams pushing for victory and leading to more goal-scoring opportunities.

However, with both teams having a similar xG and xGA, the probability of a draw (despite the lack there of in recent fixtures) does increase with both teams potentially cancelling each other out and bettors can get the draw at 4.070*.

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