This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees two sides chasing European qualification, as Napoli take on Lazio. Can Napoli close the gap to Juventus? Will Lazio strengthen their Top four chances? Read on to inform your Napoli vs. Lazio prediction.
Live Napoli vs. Lazio Odds
The Money Line odds suggest this will be a close contest, with Napoli coming in as favourites with a 54% chance of securing a home win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5, with the odds suggesting a high scoring contest with Over odds of 1.840*.
Date – Sunday January 20
Time – 18:30 UTC
Venue – San Paolo
Napoli vs. Lazio predicted line-ups
Napoli predicted line-up
4-4-2 – Meret (GK), Hysaj, Albiol, Maksimovic, Goulham, Ruiz, Diawara, Callejon, Insigne, Mertens, Millik
Napoli will be missing key players through injuries and suspensions, which include Marek Hamsik, Vlad Chriches, Kalidou Koulibaly, Lorenzo Insigne and Allan all missing the game on Sunday. Ancelotti has constantly rotated at the goalkeeper position, so David Ospina could deputise instead of young Alex Meret.
Adam Ounas and Kevin Malcuit will also be pushing for starts, with the former starting last time out against Sassuolo in the Coppa Italia last Sunday.
Lazio predicted line-up
3-5-2 – Strakosha (GK), Bastos, Felipe, Acerbi, Patric, Milinkovic-Savic, Lucas, Luis Alberto, Lulic, Immobile, Caicedo
Adam Marusic misses out at right-wing back through suspension whilst Martin Caceres, Joaquin Correa and Wallace are all struggling for fitness with knocks, the flu, and knee issues respectively.
Jordan Lukaku will be pushing for a start ahead of the more experienced Senad Lulic at left-wing back after playing against Novara in the Coppa Italia.
Napoli vs. Lazio statistics
• Napoli have six wins in their last seven league games against Lazio in Serie A
• There has only been one draw in the last 10 league meetings between the two teams
• Lazio has one win in their last 10 games against Napoli in Serie A
• Lazio’s two most recent away victories against Napoli were in 2015 and 2009.
• There have been over 2.5 goals in four of the last six meetings against the two teams.
• There have been over 1.5 goals in nine of the last 10 league meetings.
• Both teams have scored in six of the last 10 league meetings.
• Napoli have an xG per game of 1.81 and xGA per game of 0.89.
• Lazio have an xG per game of 1.77 and xGA per game of 1.06
Inform your Napoli vs. Lazio prediction
With both teams gunning for Champions League Qualification, Sunday’s encounter in Naples should be an intriguing one.
The last meeting between the two sides on the opening day of the season saw Napoli snatch a hard-fought 2-1 away win to maintain their dominant record over Lazio, losing on just one occasion in the last 10 games against them.
Sunday’s fixture should be yet another compelling contest, as Lazio will be desperate to strengthen their top four hopes with a win or at least a draw away from home.
Napoli are 12 points clear of fourth-placed Lazio but nine points behind the leaders – leaving them in a peculiar position of being too far ahead to fall down below third, but too far behind a rampant Juventus to climb any higher.
This position that Napoli occupy could have one of two effects on the mentality of the squad.
On the one hand, the players can go out and play without pressure as they hold a comfortable 12-point margin on the Champions League places, but on the other hand, they could approach the game with increased pressure to try keep up with Juventus. This would be to at least try and prevent them from retaining the title for an eighth consecutive season.
Compared to this time last season, Napoli are four points worse off, as they have lost two more games and scored five fewer goals than this time last season (they have also conceded four fewer).
The loss to Inter Milan on Gameweek 17 aside, Napoli have been in great form with five wins in their last six league games, with their only other loss outside of Serie A being the 1-0 away defeat to Liverpool in the Champions League.
Arkadiuz Millik, Dries Mertens and Lorenzo Insigne between them have been involved in 46 goals for Napoli thus far in all competitions, with all three in double figures for goals and the latter pair both providing six assists each.
Conversely, Lazio will come into the game under intense pressure from the teams below them that are all vying to replace them in the final Champions League spot.
Just four points separate 4th-8th position in Serie A, meaning any slip ups can be immediately capitalised by one of Roma, AC Milan, Sampdoria or Atalanta.
With both teams gunning for Champions League Qualification, Sunday’s encounter in Naples should be an intriguing one
Former Capocannoniere Ciro Immobile has been in good form with 10 goals to his name in Serie A (four behind top scorer Ronaldo) and midfield dynamo Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who had been failing to live up to the heights of last season, may be starting to find his goal scoring touch that garnered interest from Europe’s elite last summer, with four goals in his last 4 appearances (he had just three goals all season before).
Lazio are due an improvement offensively also, having scored five goals less than forecast by xG – only SPAL have underperformed worse in attack than Lazio (six goals less than forecasted)
Napoli vs. Lazio: Where is the value?
Bettors could look to the Handicap market to find value given the fact that Napoli have such a good record against Lazio and are playing at home, with odds of -0.5 currently priced at 2.760*.
Moreover, the attacking proficiency of both clubs as well as the history of both teams scoring in this fixture could lead bettors to opt for an even higher scoring contest with odds of Over 2.75 priced at 2.070*.
Alternatively, bettors could opt into betting on 1st Half totals, with Napoli Over 0.5 currently priced at 1.806*.
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