Sep 12, 2018
Sep 12, 2018

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Fiorentina

Napoli vs. Fiorentina odds

Inform your Napoli vs. Fiorentina prediction

Napoli vs. Fiorentina statistics

Napoli vs. Fiorentina: Where is the Value?

Serie A preview: Napoli vs. Fiorentina

Napoli play Fiorentina in this weekend's highlight Serie A match in what should be an exciting contest. Looking for value in the Napoli vs. Fiorentina odds? Read on to inform your Napoli vs. Fiorentina prediction.

Live Napoli vs. Firoentina odds

Napoli come into the match as clear favourites in a game (61.69% chance). The odds also suggest there could be a few goals with the Over 3 goals available at 2.060*.

Date – Saturday September 15

Time – 16:00 UTC

Venue – San Paolo

Napoli vs. Fiorentina predicted lineups

Napoli predicted lineup

4-3-3 – Ospina (GK), Hysaj, Koulibaily, Albiol, Rui, Allan, Zilenski, Hamsik, Insigne, Milik, Callejon

New signing Fabian Ruiz who has been carrying a thigh strain for three weeks but could feature, Simone Verdi also picked up a knock last time out and will likely be replaced by Jose Callejon while Vlad Chiriches has suffered a ACL injury and will be out for the foreseeable future.

Fiorentina predicted lineup

4-3-3 – Dragowski (GK), Milenkovic, Victor Hugo, Pezzella, Biraghi, Fernandes, Gerson, Benassi, Pjaca, Simeone, Chiesa

Goalkeeper Albin Lafont went off with a thigh injury in Fiorentina’s last game and will be replaced by back-up keeper Bartlomiej Dragowski while Marco Pjaca could be in line for his first full start for La Viola after coming on a substitute in the last fixture.

Napoli vs. Fiorentina statistics

  • Napoli have scored over 1.5 goals in their last ten games and have over 1.5 goals in seven out of their last ten meetings with Fiorentina.
  • In matches between the two sides, there has been over 1.5 goals 67.86% of the time and over 2.5 goals 53.57% of the time.
  • Napoli’s xG is 1.5 and xGA is 0.81 for this season and were the third top goal scorers in Serie A last term.
  • Fiorentina’s xG 2.22 and xGA is 0.40 for this season, ranking ninth in fewest goals conceded last season.

Inform your Napoli vs. Fiorentina prediction

Title contenders Napoli welcome a young, exciting Fiorentina side to the San Paolo in what should be a highly intriguing match-up.

After a shock 3-0 defeat away to Sampdoria before the international break Napoli cannot afford to drop more points, especially at home, if they are to keep up with Juventus.

Fiorentina on the other hand have had a fantastic start to the season, with two wins out of two. First came a 6-1 demolition of Chievo on the opening day, then a solid 1-0 win against Udinese a week later.

The team that put six past Chievo had an average age of just under 23-years-old and will go into the game against the vastly more experienced Napoli side high on confidence but perhaps low on match knowhow given their cumulative lack of big match experience.

Viola midfielder Marco Benassi has three goals in his last two games which earned him a call-up to the Italian national team squad.

This will be Fiorentina’s first away game of the season in one of Serie A’s toughest venues to get a result, so it may be asking a lot for this young side to upset the odds this weekend.

With Napoli looking to make amends for the last game and Fiorentina looking to continue their positive momentum, the match in the heart of Naples looks set to be a fascinating encounter.

Napoli vs Fiorentina: Where is the Value

As seems to be the trend in the Serie A, the value in this fixture may lie in the Total Goals market. Napoli have scored five and conceded six in their last three outings in Serie A whilst Fiorentina have scored seven goals in two games, conceding just one so far.

Currently the odds of Over 3 goals are priced at 2.050*, an option that might appeal to bettors based on the fact that the statistics such as the home side scoring over 1.5 goals in seven out of their last ten meetings with Fiorentina indicate a high scoring contest.

Plus, with both teams’ expected goals tally per game equating to more than 3 goals, bettors may find value in this betting avenue.

The last meeting between the two teams finished 3-0 to Fiorentina, as Giovani Simeone’s hat-trick all but ended Napoli’s Scudetto hopes last season after Kouilbaily had been sent off for a professional foul just ten minutes into the match.

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Odds subject to change

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