Third-placed Fiorentina travel to Rome to take on Lazio in this weekend's highlight Serie A fixture. Looking for value in what is sure to be a compelling contest between two title rivals? Read on to inform your Lazio vs. Fiorentina prediction.
Live Lazio vs. Fiorentina odds
Juventus come into the match as slight favourites (around 55% chance) against a Fiorentina side that are more than capable of getting a result away from home. The Total Goals market points towards a high-scoring contest with Over 2.5 & 3 currently priced at 2.020* .
Date – Sunday October 7
Time – 13:00 UTC
Venue – Stadio Olimpico
Lazio vs. Fiorentina predicted line-ups
Lazio predicted line-up
3-5-2 – Strakosha (GK), Wallace, Acerbi, Caceres, Marusic, Parolo, Lucas, Milinkovic-Savic, Lulic, Caicedo, Immobile
Lazio will be expected to make changes following last week’s derby loss to Roma, with Wallace replacing Luiz Felipe in defence and Caicedo coming in to offer Ciro Immobile a strike partner rather than attacking midfielder Luis Alberto.
Fiorentina predicted line-up
4-3-3 – Lafont (GK), Milenkovic, Pezzella, Hugo, Biraghi, Benassi, Veretout, Gerson, Chiesa, Pjaca, Simeone
Unlike their opponents, La Viola could name an unchanged XI off the back of their 2-0 win against Atalanta last week. Edimilson Fernandes could come into the side to replace Gerson in midfield but Pioli may not want to tamper with a winning formula.
Lazio vs. Fiorentina statistics
• There have been over 2.5 goals in six out of the last eight meetings between the two sides.
• Lazio beat Fiorentina home and away last season.
• Fiorentina have two wins in the last eight meetings with Lazio, with one draw
• Lazio have an xG per game of 1.74 and a xGA of 1.28
• Fiorentina have an xG per game of 1.57 and a xGA of 0.83
Inform your Lazio vs. Fiorentina predictionLazio welcome a young, exciting Fiorentina side who have made a great start to the season, performing above expectations and sitting in third place.
Home field advantage, or a lack of it, could be crucial to finding value in this match. The Biancocelsti’s home from thus far has been average at best, sitting 10th in the home form table, whilst Fiorentina have failed to win an away game with one draw and two losses.
There have been over 2.5 goals in six out of the last eight meetings between the two sides.
It has been Fiorentina’s home form that has propelled them into continental qualification contention with Juventus being the only other team to win four home games in Serie A.
Lazio are fresh off a humbling defeat to bitter derby rivals Roma, losing 4-1 and highlighting their problems in defence, conceding nine goals in seven games and leaving them with an xGA per game of 1.28.
Meanwhile Fiorentina have joint second best defensive record in the league, conceding just four goals in seven matches whilst also claiming the joint third best attack in the division with 14 goals in seven games.
Ciro Immobile has once again been burdened with the task of winning games with his goals for Lazio, as he is the only player to score more than two goals. Immobile currently sits on 0.53 xG per 90 mins (a 0.18 drop from last season) and this will be a major cause for concern for Lazio. Fiorentina, on the other hand, have four players of who two goals or more (Bennassi, Chiesa, Simeone and Milenkovic).
Given Lazio’s struggles at home and Fiortentina’s relative struggles away, this is a really tough one to call. If Fiorentina can shut off the threat of Immobile, they have enough quality throughout the team to do some damage to their opponents.
Lazio vs. Fiorentina: Where is the value?
With a positive recent record against Fiorentina and a point to prove after a heavy derby loss, Lazio are favourites to win this fixture, but only slightly given their inconsistencies thus far in Serie A.
Fiorentina’s away form may look negative at first glance (P3, W0 L2 D1), but the two away defeats came against Napoli and Inter, two teams that have a superior squad to La Viola (they were especially unlucky to lose the game against Inter based on xG - 1.86 for Inter and 1.79 for Fiorentina).
With this in mind, plus their impressive xG and xGA (Lazio’s xG is even higher than Fiorentina’s) and the recent history of high-scoring matches between the two teams - bettors may find value in the Over market with odds of 2.5 & 3 at 2.020*.
Ciro Immobile could once again play a pivotal role in deciding the outcome of the game, as last season’s Cappocanniore already has four goals in seven games scoring with 61% of his shots on target.
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