This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A is the Derby della Madonnina, as Inter play AC Milan. Looking for value in what is sure to be a compelling contest between two fierce rivals? Read on to inform your Inter Milan vs. AC Milan prediction.
Live Inter Milan vs. AC Milan odds
Inter Milan come into the match as slight favourites (around 56% chance) against an AC Milan side that are in great form and are more than capable of getting a result against their hometown rivals. The Total Goals market points towards a high-scoring contest with Over 2.5 currently priced at 1.877*.
Date – Sunday October 22
Time – 18:30 UTC
Venue – San Siro
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan predicted line-ups
Inter Milan predicted line-up
4-2-3-1 – Handanovic (GK), Vrsalijko, Skriniar, Miranda, Asamoah, Vecino, Brozovic, Politano, Nainggolan, Perisic, Icardi
Inter will be expected to make two changes from the victory away to SPAL before the international break with Keita Balde and Borja Valero likely to lose their place in the team. Stefan De Vrij and Danilo D’Ambrosio will be pushing for start in defence whilst Martinez will likely be deployed from the bench to support Icardi if needed as the match progresses.
AC Milan predicted line-up
4-3-3 – Donnarumma (GK), Calabria, Musacchio, Romagnoli, Rodriguez, Kessie, Biglia, Bonaventura, Suso, Castillejo, Higuain
Alessio Romagnoli missed the last fixture and the international break with a muscle injury but is pushing for a start on Sunday. Christian Zapata is likely to deputise for the Milan captain should he not pass a fitness test whilst Mattia Caladra is also facing a late fitness test ahead of the derby after being limited to one Europa League appearance thus far for his new club.
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan statistics
• AC Milan have two wins in their last eight league meetings against Inter
• Inter have not lost to AC Milan when playing as the home side since November 2010
• Over 2.5 goals have been scored in four out of the last eight league games between the two teams
• There have been five draws in the last eight league games between the two sides
• Inter Milan have an xG per game of 1.5 and and a xGA per game of 0.75
• AC Milan have an xG per game of 2.14 and a xGA per game of 1.42
Inform your Inter Milan vs. AC Milan prediction
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan, known as the Derby della Madonnia, is one of the most iconic matches in soccer history and this weekend’s clash is sure to be another intriguing chapter in this storied rivalry between the two Milanese clubs.
Home field advantage is an intriguing concept when applied to this particular fixture, as both teams play their home games at the San Siro, but as Inter Milan are the home team, they will have a greater allocation of supporters as a home team would in regular circumstances.
As the statistics point out, when AC Milan are playing as the “away” side in their own stadium, they have failed to beat Inter since November 2010 - a record that bettors may want to consider when making their prediction.
Inter Milan will arrive at the San Siro in tremendous form, winning their last six games in all competitions after an indifferent start to the season and find themselves in third place. AC Milan also come into the derby in good form, unbeaten in their last eight games in all competitions winning their last three.
However, AC Milan have had a distantly average season at best thus far and find themselves in mid-table having played one game less – winning three, drawing three and losing one to leave them in 10th place.
A win for AC Milan would see them shoot up the league standings, one point behind their great rivals but a defeat for the Rossoneri would be a blow to their European qualification ambitions this season which looks set to be competitive as ever this year.
As tight and cagey as these games can be, it appears that the result of this game could rest with the two of most prolific strikers in Serie A in recent years and the leading players for both teams – Mauro Icardi and Gonzalo Higuain.
When AC Milan are playing as the “away” side in their own stadium, they have failed to beat Inter since November 2010.
Icardi is Inter’s top scorer thus far with five goals and two assists in eight appearances (Serie A and Champions League) this season and is no doubt their prized asset and will be called upon to win the game for his club just as he did in the same fixture last season. Icardi has four goals in 11 appearances against AC Milan – three of those came in last season’s 3-2 victory.
Gonzalo Higuain is in even better form for his new club, with six goals and one assist in seven appearances (Serie A and Europa League) and will be looking to add to his tally on Sunday. The Argentine has a shot conversion rate of 50% thus far in Serie A, and has six goals in 10 games against Inter (when playing for Napoli and Juventus).
Inter Milan vs. AC Milan: Where is the value?
When referring to the expected goals for and against for both teams, they tend to suggest a high scoring contest. Inter are averaging exactly 1.5 xG per game whilst AC Milan have been even more prolific with over 2 xG per game, demonstrating the attacking potential of both teams and suggesting that odds of Over 2.5 at 1.877* could provide value for bettors.
However, it’s in defence where the teams differ dramatically, with Inter conceding less than a goal a game (0.75) and AC Milan conceding at least a goal a game (1.42) which could arguably produce a low scoring home victory for Inter.
For bettors looking for an alternative market, perhaps value can be found in predicting the number of cards.
As it’s a derby fixture, the common assumption to make would be an increase in the number of yellow cards due to the intensity and passion running high amongst the players.
However, the two teams have the best disciplinary record in Serie A this season.
That being said, there has been an average of six cards per game in the last five games between the two. Interestingly, Inter received more cards in all of those games bar one (when both teams received three cards each in the 0-0 draw in last season’s Coppa Italia).
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