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Two weeks ago
Oct 31, 2018

Serie A Preview: Fiorentina vs. Roma

Fiorentina vs. Roma odds

Fiorentina vs. Roma statistics

Inform your Fiorentina vs. Roma prediction

Fiorentina vs. Roma: Where is the value?

Serie A Preview: Fiorentina vs. Roma

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees Fiorentina take on Roma in the race for European qualification. Can La Viola strengthen their Europa League hopes? Have Roma put their inconsistencies behind them? Read on to inform your Fiorentina vs. Roma prediction

Live Fiorentina vs. Roma odds

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The Money Line odds suggest this will be an incredibly tight contest with Fiorentina’s implied probability of victory being 36% compared to Roma’s 38% chances of securing an away win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5 and 3*, the the odds marginally suggesting a high scoring contest with Over odds of 1.990*.

Date – Saturday November 3

Time – 16:00 UTC

Venue – Stadio Artemio Franchi

Fiorentina vs. Roma predicted line-ups

Fiorentina predicted line-up

4-3-3 – Lafont (GK), Milenkovic, Pezzella, Hugo, Biraghi, Benassi, Veretout, Gerson, Chiesa, Simeone, Pjaca

Gerson, Marco Pjaca and last season’s top soccer Giovanni Simeone are expected to be recalled to the side that drew against Torino last time out. Stefano Pioli has chosen to stick with a 4-3-3 system for the majority of this season, which hasn’t yielded as many goals has he would’ve liked, so perhaps a tactical change is being considered by the Viola manager.

Roma predicted line-up

4-2-3-1 – Olsen (GK), Florenzi, Fazio, Juan, Kolarov, Cristante, N’Zonzi, Under, Pellegrini, El Shaaraway, Dzeko

Captain Daniele De Rossi and Kostas Manolas suffered injuries in the 1-1 draw away to Napoli and will be fitness doubts ahead of the game with Fiorentina, with Federico Fazio and Bryan Cristante likely to deputise instead. Javier Pastore and Justin Kluivert remain side-lined through injury.

Fiorentina vs. Roma statistics

• There have been no draws in the last six meetings between the two teams in Serie A

• There have been over 2.5 goals in three of the last eight league meetings

• Fiorentina have two wins in the last six league games against Roma

• Roma won the same away fixture last season 4-2 with Gerson scoring two goals (he’s currently on-loan at Fiorentina from Roma)

• Fiorentina have an xG of 1.48 per game and an xGA of 0.93

• Roma have an xG of 1.76 per game and xGA per game of 1.34

Inform your Fiorentina vs. Roma prediction

Fiorentina welcome Roma to Tuscany in what is shaping up to be a very competitive contest between two teams that are looking to qualify for European soccer next season. Roma are still harbouring Champions League hopes and Fiorentina are looking qualify for the Europa League for the first time since their fifth placed finish in 2015/16.

As shown by the noticeable lack of draws between the two, both teams appear intent on winning rather than settling for the point.

After a remarkable opening day 6-1 victory against Chievo, Fiorentina have struggled in front of goal in recent weeks, With La Viola having to rely on central midfielder Marco Benassi as their top goal scorer with four goals.

Giovanni Simone has struggled in front of goal this season, with just two in 10 games and was dropped for Kevin Mirallas through the centre last time out against Torino in the 1-1 draw.

Despite their attacking problems, Fiorentina have been relatively solid defensively, conceding just under a goal per game. This is perhaps due in part to their back four and goalkeeper playing regularly and building up a greater understanding.

Whether Fiorentina remain as clinical in front of goal throughout the rest of the season will have an important influence in finishing in a Europa League spot.

The same cannot be said for Roma, who have constantly rotated their defence, mostly due to injury, and as a result are conceding at least a goal per game - five goals more than Fiorentina having played the same number of games.

Despite having a higher xG than Fiorentina, Roma have only scored one more goal than their opponents – highlighting Roma’s proficiency in chance creation compared to Fiorentina but also their slight inability to be as clinical as their opponents.

Whether Fiorentina remain as clinical in front of goal throughout the rest of the season will have an important influence in finishing in a Europa League spot.

What’s more is that Roma have had far more goal scorers than Fiorentina, with 12 different scorers compared to Fiorentina’s eight, highlighting the attacking potential across their team.

Fiorentina vs. Roma: Where is the value?

With such close odds on the 1X2, this fixture really is a tough one to call and perhaps the value can be found in alternative markets like cards betting.

The stats show that Fiorentina like to press their opposition and make a lot of tackles (which will often lead to a foul and potentially a booking). Roma, on the other had, do a good job of controlling possession (averaging 54.2% this season) and will likely frustrate their opponents and make them commit in the challenge.

Fiorentina and Roma have a remarkable 47 yellow cards between them so far this season after just 10 games (averaging 2.4 and 2.3 per game respectively), with Fiorentina making on average 16.8 tackles per game compared to Roma’s 10.5 (the lowest in the league) – this means the cards handicap market a viable option for bettors.

Bettors should also consider despite the lack of draws between the teams, both are very evenly matched fair probability of victory, increasing the chances of a draw, which bettors can get currently at 3.590*.

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