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Nov 7, 2018

Serie A Preview: AC Milan vs. Juventus

AC Milan vs. Juventus odds

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Serie A Preview: AC Milan vs. Juventus

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees two of Italy’s most successful clubs come together, as AC Milan take on Juventus. Can Juventus strengthen their commanding Serie A position? Will AC Milan win in the last minute of play for the third game running? Read on to inform your AC Milan vs. Juventus prediction.

Live AC Milan vs. Juventus odds

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The Money Line odds suggest this will be a tight contest with Juventus coming into the game as favourites with a 54% chance of securing an away win. The Over/Under total is set at 2.5, with the odds marginally suggesting a high scoring contest with Over odds of 1.943*.

Date – Sunday November 11

Time – 18:30 UTC

Venue – San Siro

AC Milan vs. Juventus predicted line-ups

AC Milan predicted line-up

4-3-3 – Donnarumma (GK), Abate, Musacchio, Romangnoli, Rodriguez, Kessie, Bonnaventura, Bakayoko, Suso, Calhanoglu, Higuain

Milan are dealing with a host of injuries, with Mattia Caldara out for three months with an Achilles tendon rupture and Luca Biglia out for up to two months with a calf injury. Gonazlo Higuain, Giacomo Bonnaventura and Hakan Calhaongolu all face late fitness tests ahead of the game, with Patrick Cutrone and Samu Castillejo ready to step into the first team if required.

AC Milan have lined up in a 4-4-2 in recent fixtures but will likely return to their more balanced 4-3-3 to counter the the attacking threat of this Juventus team.

Juventus predicted line-up

4-3-3 – Szczesny (GK), Cancelo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Alex Sandro, Khedira, Pjanic, Matuidi, Costa, Dybala, Ronaldo

Mario Mandzukic and Emre Can missed out on the squad through an ankle injury and illness respectively but both should be fit enough to make the bench for the match in Milan. Medhi Benatia has been rotating with Chiellini at centre back, but Allegri is likely to stick with the tried and tested Bonucci-Chiellini partnership at the heart of defence.

AC Milan vs Juventus statistics

• There has been one draw in the last 16 matches in all competitions between the two sides.

• AC Milan have one win in the last 16 matches in all competitions against Juventus.

• There have been over 2.5 goals in four out of the last five matches in all competitions between the two teams.

• AC Milan’s last two home league wins against Juventus were in October 2016 and November 2012 – all other league matches in this period have been won by Juventus.

• The two teams last played each other in the Coppa Italia final in May 2018, where Juventus won 4-0.

• AC Milan have an xG of 1.54 per game and an xGA of 0.91

• Juventus have an xG of 2.13 per game and an xGA of 0.75

Inform your AC Milan vs Juventus prediction

AC Milan welcome table toppers Juventus to the San Siro looking to end a poor run of recent form against the Old Lady.

Juventus’ domination over the Serie A over the last seven years has coincided with their dominance of this fixture, with AC Milan struggling to secure one point let alone three when they come up against Juve.

Ominously for AC Milan, this has been Juventus’ best ever start to a league season, winning 10 of their 11 games, averaging at least two goals a game and boast the lowest xGA of anyone in Serie A – all without Cristiano Ronaldo being top goal scorer in Serie A presently.

AC Milan themselves are in a good run of form after a slow start to the season and find themselves in fourth place. However, they have outperformed their xG so far this season by four goals which could be a cause for concern especially in this upcoming fixture where they will need to be clinical to have any chance of securing a long-awaited victory.

It should be noted how much of an impact new signing Gonzalo Higuain could have in terms of attacking output. The Argentine forward has consistently outscored his expected goals tally every season since 2015/16.

This has been Juventus’ best ever start to a league season, winning 10 of their 11 games.

While they need to re-focus offensively, it is defensively where AC Milan have improved (although it may not be reflected in the league table). Gennaro Gattuso’s side have conceded nearly four goals more than their 10.11 xGA (the second lowest in Serie A) so their underlying performance is a lot better than it may appear.

One thing is for certain, the Rossoneri will have their work cut out against this Juventus team that are rampant in attack and solid in defence.

To add to AC Milan’s challenge, Cristiano Ronaldo appears to have acclimatised to his new surroundings after a slow start to the season where he didn’t score in the opening three fixtures.

CR7 now has seven goals and five assists in 11 league appearances, has the most recorded shots by some distance with 60 (next closest is top scorer Piatek with 37) and has four goals in his last four league games.

If AC Milan are to finally claim a victory against Juventus, it’s likely going to be via the influence of their best player so far this season – Suso. The diminutive Spaniard has the most assists in Europe’s top five leagues this season with eight. He’s also scored four goals in what has been a thoroughly impressive start to the season for the former Liverpool man.

Remarkably, AC Milan have won their last two Serie A games thanks to injury time winners from centre-back and captain Alessio Romagnoli, in the 91st and 97th minute respectively.

AC Milan vs. Juventus: Where is the value?

Giving the combined attacking potential of both teams, along with the recent record for goal-scoring, the Over market could be a place of value for bettors, with Over 3 goals currently priced at 2.660*.

The Handicap market could also be of interest for bettors given Juventus’s recent record against AC Milan combined with their rampant two-goal-a-game average and near perfect record in Serie A thus far, bettors can Juventus at -1 at 2.640*.

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