close
Jan 15, 2018
Jan 15, 2018

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou betting preview

The heavyweight division's first dominant figure?

Analysing the fighter's recent betting patterns

Miocic vs. Ngannou betting: Who will win?

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou betting preview

The UFC returns to Boston this weekend as heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic takes on Francis Ngannou in UFC 220’s main event. This article breaks down the stats for an in-depth analysis of the fight. Read on to learn more.

Live Miocic vs. Ngannou odds

Stipe Miocic is looking to become the first person in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division to defend the title in three consecutive fights when he takes on meteoric contender Francis Ngannou.

The heavyweight division's first dominant figure?

The UFC’s history is littered with dominant champions across assorted weight classes.

Demetrious Johnson has defended his flyweight title 11 times; Anderson Silva had 10 successful middleweight title defences; Jon Jones retained the light heavyweight strap eight times, Georges St. Pierre defeated nine challengers for his welterweight belt. Dominant champions have proven universal, with one, glaring exception. 

The heavyweight division, for all its glitz and glamour, has never seen a champion defend the title three times in succession - that’s over two decades worth of champions who were unable to stay on top.

Both fighters posses power, prefer to stand and neither has demonstrated much cardio. There are a lot of similarities here, which could make Ngannou’s age and size advantage feel influential.

Due to the size of the men, the weight they carry, and the increased variance that comes with increased knockout potential, it’s hard to stay on top of the UFC’s heaviest division. Enter Stipe Miocic.

Miocic stands on the brink of history. Winning the title with a win over BJJ specialist Fabricio Werdum in 2016, he’s since defeated boxer Junior dos Santos and kickboxer Alistair Overeem, showing the versatility of his overwhelming power in the three victories.

His last four fights have lasted less than 11 minutes combined; one more win and he’s alone on the heavyweight Rushmore. That said, he may be on the brink of his greatest challenge in the form of Francis Ngannou.

Ngannou is a marketer’s dream; a monster with the hands of stone used to finish each of his last four opponents in the first round and a crushing background of poverty and homelessness.

His rise, both through the UFC ranks and from poverty is admirable and he has become the most-hyped heavyweight prospect to emerge in recent years. He’s hungry and seemingly ready to make this world his.

Now, these two titans and all of their respective momentum collide. It’s going to be explosive and one way or another, historic.

Analysing recent betting patterns

Stipe Miocic 

Stipe Miocic recent odds at Pinnacle

Opponent (date)

Opening odds

High odds

Low odds

Closing odds

Result

Junior dos Santos (13/05/2017)

1.50

1.69

1.50

1.62

W

Alistair Overeem (10/09/2016)

1.66

1.90

1.66

1.71

W

Fabricio Werdum (14/05/2016)

2.50

2.62

2.34

2.62

W

Francis Ngannou

Francis Ngannou recent odds at Pinnacle

Opponent (date)

Opening odds

High odds

Low odds

Closing odds

Result

Alistair Overeem (12/02/2017)

1.53

1.54

1.40

1.44

W

Andrei Arlovski (28/01/2017)

1.25

1.28

1.24

1.26

W

Anthony Hamilton (09/12/2016)

1.21

1.24

1.20

1.24

W

Miocic must be wondering what a guy has to do to get respect in our betting markets. In both of his defences, Miocic’s opening price ended up being the worst price bettors could get on him over the course of our markets, suggesting a lack of faith in his abilities from our bettors. That (and his price at present being better than at opening) suggests you can wait to get your best price.

Meanwhile, bettors love Ngannou. The Cameroon native has been an extreme favourite against more experienced fighters with our opening prices and that hasn’t changed with his opening price this time around. It may be better to get bets on him in the Miocic vs. Ngannou odds down now.

The tale of the tape 

Miocic vs. Ngannou: The tale of the tape

Miocic

Name

Ngannou

6’4”

Height

6’5”

246 lbs

Weight

262 lbs

80”

Reach

83”

17-2

Record

11-1

13

Wins by KO

7

1

Wins by Sub

4

1

Losses by KO

0

0

Losses by Sub

0

Miocic vs. Ngannou odds: Analysing the match-up

Here we have two guys with a combined eight consecutive first-round stoppage victories, who have one combined stoppage loss that happened over a half-decade ago. 

They both possess off-the-charts power, both prefer to stand and neither has demonstrated much cardio. There are a lot of similarities here, which makes Ngannou’s age (31, to Miocic’s 35) and size advantage feel influential.

While there are far more similarities than differences, the differences still exist; Miocic is the more aggressive of the two, landing 5.15 SLpM to Ngannou’s 3.41 and happily absorbing twice as many strikes as the African. 

Ngannou has never landed a takedown, while Miocic averages 2.10 per fifteen minutes of ring time. Ngannou has been susceptible to takedowns (four times in six UFC fights), but it’s worth noting that he hasn’t lost in those six fights. He can get back up.

Miocic vs. Ngannou betting: Who will win?

Bettors seem awfully convinced that Ngannou is the favourite here, but there are reasons for caution. 

Yes, Miocic has to be wary of the submission, but Ngannou has to be equally concerned with the takedown. Miocic’s age will eventually catch up with him, but we’ve seen no signs of it thus far. Ngannou’s recent record may be impeccable, but so too is Miocic’s.

It feels like Ngannou’s favoured status is a marketing/media creation. That’s not to take away from all he’s done, but he hasn’t faced a fighter of Miocic’s calibre and has never fought knowing that a decision victory could hold the key to victory (the UFC’s judges have traditionally ruled in favour of the champion when close fights go to cards).

If you think Ngannou is the man of destiny as so many do, then his winner odds of 1.578* should be the way to go. If, however, you think two incredible athletes are about to collide in the ring with the fallout left largely to chance, the long odds on the champion (2.530*) look awfully appealing.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.