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Finding a niche market in betting can often lead to value. This can be anything from specialist knowledge of handball betting to extensive experience in betting on Japanese baseball. Providing you know more than the bookmaker, there is money to be made.  &lt;Bet on soccer at Pinnacle&gt; They also make for interesting and potentially profitable bets, as they can be a little more reliable

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Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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What is Expected Value?The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice -&nbsp;if you were

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We have a team of editors and writers at Pinnacle, as well as a collection of external contributors, ranging from university lecturers and renowned authors, to ex-traders and esteemed sports experts. Collectively, the Pinnacle team and external contributors produce the educational content within Betting Resources.

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<ul>
<li>Event:&nbsp;UFC 281</li>
<li>Date:&nbsp;November 13, 2022</li>
<li>Venue:&nbsp;Madison Square Garden (New York, USA)</li>
</ul>

<h3>Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: Tale of the Tape</h3>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
Israel ‘The Last Stylebender’ Adesanya
</td>
<td>
Fighter
</td>
<td>
Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
33
</td>
<td>
Age
</td>
<td>
35
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
193 cm
</td>
<td>
Height
</td>
<td>
193 cm
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
84 kg
</td>
<td>
Weight
</td>
<td>
84 kg
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
12-1
</td>
<td>
UFC record
</td>
<td>
3-0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
23-1
</td>
<td>
Overall MMA record
</td>
<td>
6-1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
49%
</td>
<td>
Striking accuracy
</td>
<td>
60%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Champion
</td>
<td>
UFC ranking
</td>
<td>
#4
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 
Since making his debut in 2018, Adesanya has steamrolled his way through the middleweight division, picking up 12 victories, and he’ll defend his title for the sixth time at UFC 281.
<blockquote>Adesanya has won 12 times since his debut in 2018</blockquote>
The Nigerian’s only loss in the UFC came when he stepped up to face Jan Blachowicz in a light heavyweight title contest.
Pereira has also swept through the division and he’s competing for the title in just his fourth fight since signing for the UFC in 2021.
The Brazilian lost on his MMA debut in 2015 but has since won six in a row.

<h3>Analysing the&nbsp;Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira odds</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
Adesanya
</td>
<td>
Pereira
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
62.62%
</td>
<td>
37.38%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Adesanya is the <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alex-pereira-vs-israel-adesanya/1557886753#period:0" target="_blank">1.540*</a> favourite, with his odds equating to an approximate 62.62% chance of victory.&nbsp;Challenger Pereira can be backed at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alex-pereira-vs-israel-adesanya/1557886753#period:0" target="_blank">2.580*</a>, which translates to a 37.38% chance of winning. 
<h3 dir="ltr">Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: fighting styles analysed</h3>
Both fighters come from a kickboxing background and that should mean this contest will play out on the feet.
Adesanya finished his kickboxing career with a 75-5 record but his last two fights ended in defeats.
Pereira, who had a 33-7 kickboxing record, was one of those two fighters to beat Adesanya and this weekend’s meeting offers the Nigerian a chance to get some revenge.
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<ul>
<li><a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mma/mma-betting-factors" target="_blank">MMA: Five factors to consider</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
Adesanya holds the edge when it comes to movement and he’s an extremely fluid and awkward opponent.
Pereira relies on his power; he is aggressive and likes to dominate his opponents, and he’ll be looking to close off the cage to put his rival on the back foot.
<h3>Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira: where is the value?</h3>
Adesanya has been so dominant at middleweight and he’s&nbsp;defeated pretty much all of the top-ranked fighters.
<blockquote>Pereira has only had three UFC fights</blockquote>
The Nigerian has beaten number one-ranked Robert Whittaker twice and he’s also recorded two wins over number three-ranked Marvin Vettori.
Pereira’s arrival in the UFC has been a breath of fresh air and he’s done everything required to quickly move into a position to challenge for the title.
The Brazilian only has three UFC fights under his belt but he’s won all of them and two have ended via knockout or technical knockout.
Mentally, Pereira has the edge after twice beating Adesanya during their kickboxing days and he won’t show the kind of fear that others have when he lines up against the champion.
The value here lies in backing the underdog Pereira at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alex-pereira-vs-israel-adesanya/1557886753#period:0" target="_blank"> 2.580*.</a>
 Are you ready to make your <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/charles-oliveira-vs-islam-makhachev/1557432407" target="_blank">UFC 281</a> prediction?&nbsp;<a href="https://bit.ly/3sbs8Ec" target="_blank">Sign up</a>&nbsp;at Pinnacle and bet with our seriously valuable MMA odds.

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UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira

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Inform your MMA predictions ahead of the Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira fight with insight, analysis, and odds from Pinnacle.