Oct 28, 2021
Oct 28, 2021

UFC 267 preview: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira

Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira betting preview and odds

Blachowicz and Teixeira stats

Blachowicz vs. Teixeira predictions: Where is the value?

Blachowicz and Teixeira's fighting styles analysed

UFC 267 preview: Jan Blachowicz vs. Glover Teixeira

There will be a clash of two MMA veterans at UFC 267 when Jan Blachowicz defends the Light Heavyweight Championship against Glover Teixeira. Will Blachowicz enjoy a sixth successive win to hold onto to the belt, or can Teixeira become champion at the age of 42? Read on to inform your Blachowicz vs. Teixeira predictions.

Event: UFC 267

Date: October 30, 2021

Venue: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi, UAE)

Blachowicz vs. Teixeira: Tale of the tape

Jan Blachowicz

Fighter

Glover Teixeira

38

Age

42 (by date of fight)

188 cm

Height

188 cm

93 kg

Weight

93 kg

198 cm

Reach

193 cm

11-5-0

UFC record

15-5-0

28-8-0

Overall MMA record

32-7-0

49%

Striking accuracy

47%

Champion

UFC ranking

#1

This is one of two title bouts taking place at UFC 267, with Petr Yan facing Cory Sandhagen for the interim Bantamweight Championship in the other. Blachowicz and Teixeira were initially slated to fight at UFC 266, but the bout was postponed for undisclosed reasons.

This will be the second fight in which Blachowicz is defending the Light Heavyweight Championship, after initially winning the vacant belt against Dominick Reyes at UFC 253 last September. His one and only prior defence came against Israel Adesanya at UFC 259 in March, which he won via unanimous decision. Blachowicz enters the fight on the back of a five-bout winning run, during which he has collected three Performance of the Night awards.

Meanwhile, this is Teixeira’s first fight of 2021, with his last outing in the octagon witnessing a submission victory against Thiago Santos at UFC on ESPN 17 last November. Similarly to his opponent, the Brazilian has won each of his last five bouts to achieve the joint-longest undefeated streak of his UFC career. Teixeira previously fought for the Light Heavyweight Championship back at UFC 172 in April 2014, but lost to Jon Jones via unanimous decision.

Ahead of the fight, Blachowicz has paid tribute to his opponent but also affirmed that he is prepared for his tactics, stating: “You can’t be too fast against Glover because he’s a smart guy and an old fox. He knows how to survive and can grab you in his game, so you need to wait a little bit. If I hit him hard and see that he’s gone down, I will wait. He will not catch me in his game and I’m going to be ready for it.”

Meanwhile, Teixeira is simply proud to have received a chance to claim this belt, declaring: “I love this more than anything and I want to be the best that I can in this sport. I want another chance to fight for the title and I’ve been as disciplined as I can to give myself this opportunity.”

Analysing the Blachowicz vs. Teixeira odds

The betting market lists Blachowicz as the strong favourite for this bout at 1.355*, equating to an approximate 71% chance of victory. Teixeira has been priced as the underdog at 3.300*, translating to a 29% likelihood of winning on the night. The Over/Under for rounds has been set at 2.5, with the odds of 1.925* available for both.

Uncharacteristically for a champion exhibiting strong form, being the favourite is largely uncharted territory for Blachowicz. Ahead of his last five fights, he was the underdog on all but one occasion (his victory over Ronaldo Souza at UFC Fight Night 164), and his odds for this bout are considerably shorter than his rolling five-bout closing odds of 2.764.

His odds have also lengthened between open and close for four of his last five fights, doing so by an average margin of 0.46. This indicates that if you are confident Blachowicz will justify his status as favourite, you may access better value by placing your bets nearer to October 30.

Conversely, Teixeira was the favourite for four of his last five fights, although on three occasions this was by a margin of 0.2 or less. His odds tend to undergo small but consistent movements in both directions, and they lengthened by 0.18 when he was underdog ahead of his victory against Santos. Odds of 3.300 give Teixeira a smaller likelihood of victory than any of Blachowicz’s last five opponents, suggesting there is genuine value on offer if you think he will defy the betting market.

Blachowicz vs. Teixeira: Fighting styles analysed

Blachowicz has deservedly crafted a reputation as one of the most versatile fighters on the UFC circuit, and his 28 MMA wins to date have been divided between knockouts (eight), submissions (nine), and decision victories (11). He keeps his attacks simple while assessing opportunities to take control of bouts, launching 73% from a standing position and 66% at his opponent’s head.

Blachowicz is a particularly versatile fighter, although he is vulnerable to losing by decision.

Perhaps his most intimidating strength is the fact that he doesn’t require many opportunities to cause his opponents damage. He only lands slightly more significant strikes per minute (3.59) than he absorbs (2.79) and attempts just 1.18 takedowns and 0.22 submissions per 15 minutes. However, this hasn’t prohibited him from earning three knockouts and two submissions among his last 10 wins.

His decent defensive abilities including a takedown defence rate of 65% also means that he is content to carve out victories over the distance if his competitor does not offer any overwhelming attacking threat. However, this strategy does occasionally backfire and it is worth noting that five of his eight MMA defeats to date have come via decision.

Teixeira is certainly the more aggressive fighter of the pair. While he was initially recognised as someone who would unreservedly commit to knocking out his opponent as quickly as possible, recently he has begun to more frequently incorporate his strong wrestling abilities to create submission opportunities.

Indeed, his attack-minded approach means that he absorbs more significant strikes per minute (3.84) than he lands (3.75) while aiming 88% of attacks at his opponent’s head. However, he also comfortably bests Blachowicz for both takedowns (2.04) and submissions (0.99) per 15 minutes and launches 42% of his attacks from the ground. Furthermore, three of Teixeira’s last five wins were earned via submission and he is also yet to lose a MMA bout in such a manner.

Teixeira’s most promising route to victory for this bout may therefore be simply sticking to what he knows. While Blachowicz has only lost one fight via submission in his MMA career and does possess his aforementioned impressive takedown defence rate, Teixeira’s defence-light approach will likely not lend itself to earning a decision victory, and the Brazilian has exhibited his ability to successfully use such tactics against strong fighters.

Blachowicz vs. Teixeira: Where is the value?

Blachowicz’s status as favourite can be attributed to the fact that this is a fight for which both his versatility and clinical approach should pay dividends. He will likely approach the opening stages in a cautious manner to assess Teixeira’s approach on the night, before deciding if it would be more proficient to attempt to knock his opponent out or simply land more hits across the five rounds.

With this in mind, a Blachowicz victory and the fight to last over 2.5 rounds seems an obvious combination. Unless Teixeira produces a particularly strong start, the champion should have no reason to rush proceedings and he will presumably consider the bout easier to control if it is slower-paced.

Meanwhile, Teixeira’s chances of victory directly depend on the extent to which he can assert his key strengths. He will need to turn in a strong and aggressive performance without allowing himself to became vulnerable to the quality of Blachowicz’s attacks. His tendency to produce quick wins is a useful attribute on this front, meaning the fight to last under 2.5 rounds is worth considering to supplement any predictions on Teixeira to take the belt.

Looking forward to UFC 267? Get the latest UFC odds for every bout with Pinnacle.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.