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Oct 5, 2018
Oct 5, 2018

UFC 229 betting: Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

In-depth preview of UFC 229's main event

Mcgregor vs. Khabib odds

Inform your Mcgregor vs. Khabib prediction

UFC 229 betting: Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

On October 6, the UFC returns to Paradise, Nevada, where Khabib Nurmagomedov will defend his Lightweight title against former champion Conor McGregor. Read on to inform your McGregor vs. Khabib prediction.

UFC 229: McGregor vs. Khabib preview

This is a rivalry with just about everything. McGregor makes his return to the octagon after two years away. The Irishman is the biggest star in the business, an undefeated champion who remains number two on the UFC pound for pound rankings.

His opponent, Khabib, has clamoured for this fight for a long time and is the number eight ranked pound for pound fighter. There is also a legitimate hatred between the two fighters.

The hatred, of course, stems from an incident in April where McGregor and some twenty henchmen confronted Nurmagomedov after the champion had a tussle with McGregor’s friend Artem Lobov.

McGregor allegedly threw items at the bus Khabib and other fighters were sitting on, sending multiple fighters to the hospital. This all lead to criminal charges for McGregor. Some have suggested it was a stunt; regardless, interest in this event has been magnified because of those incidents.

The other part is the calibre of the participants. These two are the top two ongoing storylines in the lightweight division; Khabib because of his recent dominance, McGregor because of his absence.

Everyone else has lost, likely at the hands of these two fighters and because of McGregor’s absence, they’re both managed to maintain their air of dominance at the same time. That gives us an immovable force vs. unstoppable object kind of matchup.

There’s a lot at stake for the two competitors. Both fighters need to maintain their dominance for brand purposes and, for Khabib, there’s always been a “but you never fought McGregor” dynamic.

This is an opportunity for Khabib who wasn’t even on the Pay-Per-View when he fought in the McGregor v Alvarez UFC 205 undercard. If he’s ever going to be an absolute superstar, it’ll be because he stood up to McGregor in the leadup, then dominated him in the octagon.

Of course, there’s a decent chance he’ll get more than one opportunity to showcase himself on the biggest stage, assuming this fight does the kind of PPV viewing numbers one expects of a McGregor showdown.

Tale of the tape

Nurmagomedov

Name

McGregor

5’10”

Height

5’9”

155 lbs

Weight

155 lbs

70”

Reach

74”

26-0

Record

24-3

8

Wins by KO

18

8

Wins by Submission

1

0

Losses by KO

0

0

Losses by Submission

3

Mcgregor vs Khabib Recent Betting Odds at Pinnacle Sports

McGregor's recent betting odds at Pinnacle:

McGregor's odds

Opponent (date)

Opening odds

Highest value

Lowest value

Closing odds

Result

Eddie Alvarez (12/11/2016)

1.69

1.83

1.63

1.65

Win

Nate Diaz (20/08/2016)

1.80

1.84

1.73

1.74

Win

Nate Diaz (05/03/2016)

1.33

1.36

1.23

1.21

Loss

Khabib's recent betting odds at Pinnacle:

Khabib's odds

Opponent (date)

Opening odds

Highest value

Lowest value

Closing odds

Result

Al Iaquinta (04-07-2018)

1.22

1.22

1.13

1.14

Win

Edson Barbosa (12/30/2017)

1.49

1.49

1.27

1.29

Win

Michael Johnson 11/12/2016)

1.45

1.45

1.32

1.32

Win

Two interesting notes here:

Nurmagomedov has only ever seen his odds tighten as he’s gotten closer to fight time. If you’re going to bet on him, you may want to do it early.

The same is true of McGregor, but to a lesser extent. The expectation here is that the “He’s made his money” narrative, and Khabib’s market history move this market against McGregor, so it may be worth holding out for better prices that are on offer closer to the fight.

Inform your Mcgregor vs. Khabib prediction

The big question with this fight is whether Nurmagomedov will be able to get McGregor to the ground and submitted. At the time of writing, Khabib is at 1.63, so some people obviously think he will.

McGregor is the epitome of an MMA striker. 18 of his 24 victories have come by knockout and his striking numbers are impressive; 5.82 Strikes Landed per Minute (SLpM) with 47% accuracy (to Khabib’s 4.34 and 48%).

He strikes often, hard and with accuracy. It’s a style that’s seen him tire in championship rounds (he’s never finished an opponent after the second round). Khabib is going to try to prolong the match as much as possible, while Conor will be the aggressor.

Khabib prefers to be more selective with his strikes, landing nearly as often, but with less force. This allows him two benefits, with the first being he doesn’t get hit very often himself (1.55 SApM to Conor’s 4.55) and secondly his strike set up his grappling. Khabib is a natural wrestler and while his results show a well-rounded game, it’s clear that his wrestling is his greatest strength.

Khabib’s strategy revolves around the takedown. Averaging 5.44 for every 15 minutes of ring time (to Conor’s 0.92), he’ll likely try to exploit the weakness inherent in McGregor’s three loses coming by submission. Conor’s takedown defense--73%--is solid, but he hasn’t faced many takedown artists of Nurmagomedov’s calibre. Nurmagomedov’s takedown defence statistics may appear irrelevant as Conor is highly unlikely to win the match via a takedown.

Mcgregor vs. Khabib: Who will win?

If the fight is under 1.5 rounds, McGregor is likely to win. If over, Khabib will be the favourite.

The question is which result is more likely to pay off respective to our odds? Khabib has the more recent track record, has a size advantage and has the tools to stay away from McGregor’s attack long enough for Conor to tire.

McGregor possesses aggression and striking skills that are more likely than Khabib’s previous opponents to penetrate those defenses. The question you need to answer is which skill set you trust more.

Either way, it’s going to be a tremendous fight. Bet with Pinnacle for the best MMA odds online.

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