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Feb 6, 2017
Feb 6, 2017

UFC 208 Betting: Holm vs. de Randamie

UFC 208 Betting: Holm vs. de Randamie
On February 11th, 2017, the UFC will continue to enjoy its newly legal status in New York when Brooklyn plays host to UFC 208. With the main event pitting Holly Holm against Germaine de Randamie to determine a champion for the new women’s Featherweight division, who will win this tight fight? Read on to find out.

Holly Holm was almost an afterthought when she took to the Octagon against Ronda Rousey in November, 2015. A boxing great, the assumption was that Holm’s lack of MMA experience would make her easy fodder for Rousey, the most dominant champion in the sport at the time.

The market on Holm closed at 7.14, making for a very handsome payday for those bettors who made what they surely thought was a desperate gambit when Holm scored one of the biggest upsets in the sport’s history.

It was Holm’s length that gave Rousey so much trouble and which has proven to be her own undoing since. The 5’8” southpaw was fighting at bantamweight, the only women’s division the UFC offered, and it wasn’t a natural fit.

As a younger boxer, she’d fought at light welterweight (140 lbs) and weight gain is a natural course with maturation. In short, Holm’s weight cuts were apparently part of the post-Rousey effect of her losing both her first title defense against Miesha Tate and her ensuing fight against Valentina Shevchenko.

Now, Holm has the opportunity to show that was the issue. As women’s MMA matures, the UFC saw the need to broaden its horizons and thus, Holm vs. de Randamie is the first fight in the new Featherweight division, with the winner set to become the division’s initial champion.

A win for Holm would make her the first woman to hold two UFC titles; a loss would be her third in a row, putting her career trajectory dangerously low and leaving observers to wonder if her victory was really a mark of her own excellence or of Rousey’s failings - Buster Douglas comes to mind.

Analysing the odds

Holly Holm’s recent markets at Pinnacle:

Name (date)

Open

Highest

Lowest

Close

Result

Valentina Shevchenko

(07/23/2016)

1.25

1.63

1.25

1.55

Loss

Miesha Tate

(3/5/2016)

1.28

1.38

1.28

1.34

Loss

Ronda Rousey

(11/15/2015)

11.00

12.02

7.14

7.14

Win


Germaine de Randamie’s recent markets at Pinnacle:

Name (date)

Open

Highest

Lowest

Close

Result

Anna Elmose

(5/8/2016)

1.31

1.32

1.25

1.29

Win

Larissa Pacheco

(3/14/2015)

2.40

2.40

2.04

2.04

Win

Amanda Nunes

(11/6/2013)

1.86

2.00

1.74

1.80

Loss

After her win against Rousey, Holm had the market believing. Her odds against the established vet Tate marked her a major favourite, and while pricing did move against her, it probably didn’t migrate as much as it should have.

After the loss to Tate, bookmakers still afforded her tremendous respect against Shevchenko. The market wasn’t so convinced, with betting patterns forcing a major move by what proved to be wise bettors who saw an opportunity in Holm’s past accomplishments unduly affecting the numbers.

Having opened both at 1.94 and with Randmie slightly favoured at the moment (1.813*) a look at de Randamie’s recent history shows us just how much that means the regard for Holm has declined.

What bettors thought would be a close fight for de Randamie with Nunes ended up being a rout and she’s only had two fights in the three years since.

Her record is 6-3; these facts do not inspire, so for the market to actually be moving towards de Randamie, we know it’s been bitten by Holm hype once too often.

Tale of the tape

Holly Holm

Name

Germaine de Randamie

5’8”

Height

5’9”

69

Reach

71

145

Weight

145

10-2

Record

6-3

7

Wins by KO

3

0

Losses by KO

1

0

Wins by Sub

0

1

Losses by Sub

0

The match-up

Strategically, the big question going into this fight is whether it will be a true MMA match. Both women bring in tremendous records as legends in other sports (boxing for Holm, kickboxing for de Randomie) and neither brings much as far as mat work goes.

In fact, Holm has landed just one takedown in her entire career, the only one she’s ever attempted. That separates her from de Randamie, who has never attempted a takedown.

If this ends up being a straight kickboxing match, one has to be incredibly impressed with de Randamie’s stats. She’s won the WIKBA championship three times (the last in 2008) and she holds the women’s record for consecutive wins, with 37.

Those bettors who like Randamie for a straight kickboxing win will be the first to tell you she’s never lost a kickboxing match.

When on their feet, their styles do vary somewhat. Holm likes to mix it up, with a 3.08 SLpM and 2.49 SApM; de Randamie lands at the same rate, but has enjoyed the benefits of her length, keeping fights at leg’s reach and making it difficult for opponents to land on her (1.87 SApM).

She’s also the more selective of the two, landing 44% of the time to Holm’s 32%. Holly throws her punches at the wall and sees what sticks.

Who will win?

The market doesn’t lie. Bettors thus far seem to think de Randomie will be able to keep Holm at bay, making for a closely contested affair, and her superior length certainly leans that direction.

There are also real questions about whether Holm’s two recent losses signaled a lessened desire, or if her 35 years mean she’s past the point of no return.

Still, Holm is the woman who capped a 10-0 run to start her career by beating the most unbeatable fighter women’s fighting has ever seen, not to mention one of the greatest woman boxers of all-time.

Either way, it promises to be a hard fought contest, with a little bit of fight history waiting at the end with a championship belt going around one of their waists. To bet on which one, go straight to our unbeatable UFC 208 odds.

Odds subject to change

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