Dynamo Moscow vs. CSKA Moscow: Important information
Start time: 15:00 (CET)
Venue: VTB Ice Palace
The top two teams of the Moscow region face off in a KHL match on January 8. CSKA Moscow, the reigning Gagarin Cup champions, visit their local rivals Dynamo Moscow, who ruled the KHL for two seasons in 2012 and 2013. Lately CSKA has been the more dominant side, currently leading not only the Western Conference, but the whole of the KHL. Dynamo Moscow sit in third place in the west and fifth in the league overall.
An important rivalry
We’re now at a crucial point of the season and this game, as ever, will mean a lot to both sides. Both of these teams will be thinking about the bigger picture but this one-game rivalry will still mean a lot to them, especially given the close head-to-head record from the games already this season.
CSKA surprisingly lost the teams’ previous encounter at home on Christmas Day to Dynamo 0-3 – their only loss in nine games. However, CSKA still holds the local bragging rights as they won the first two fixtures earlier in the season, first 2-1 on Dynamo’s home ice in October and then 2-1 as the host earlier this month.
Dynamo’s current form is remarkably good as well, as they’ve won four of their last five games, only losing to Magnitogorsk, one of the powerhouses in KHL’s Eastern Conference, after a shootout.
An interesting home vs. road split
At home, Dynamo has been the best team in the KHL’s Western Conference. They’ve recorded 14 wins, three losses and four one-point-losses in 21 games, adding up to 32 points. They’ve scored a remarkably high 3.1 goals per game, while conceding 2.0 per game.
Interestingly, CSKA has been the strongest road side in the Western Conference, with 18 wins, three losses and a single one-point-loss in 22 games, adding up to 37 points. They’ve scored 3.18 goals per game on the road and conceded only 1.32.
The key players who could make a difference
It’s important to analyse both teams in this matchup if you’re looking to get an edge in the betting market, but that should also include the individual players that could potentially make the most difference. Both of these teams feature some star players that, if they perform to the best of their ability, could single-handedly win the game for their team.
CSKA have scored 3.18 goals per game on the road and conceded only 1.32.
Both teams are known to play an extremely tight defensive game, but this season has seen Dynamo’s top line cause havoc in the scoring race. NHL-returnees Vadim Shipachyov leads the race with 48 points (12+36) and Dmitri Jaskin is second with 43 (19+24).
CSKA’s trio of Linden Vey (11+24), Kirill Kaprizov (17+16) and Mikhail Grigorenko (13+17) follow in fourth, fifth and 13th respectively. Dynamo’s Finnish defenseman Juuso Hietanen is leading the defender’s scoring race with 30 points, 12 of which have been goals.
What do the simulations suggest?
In the Accuscore simulations, the visiting CSKA Moscow gains the upper hand. Their team is better down the line, even if Dynamo currently has the most prolific duo of KHL in Shipachyov and Jaskin. CSKA is capable of causing Dynamo problems with all of their four lines and the quality is top-notch even in the fourth line. In simulations, CSKA win 61% of the time, the draw is 21% and Dynamo 18% Pinnacle’s odds, meanwhile give CSKA a 57% chance of the win, with Dynamo on 21% and the draw at 22%.
Low margins and high limits on KHL
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Despite the clear difference in the percentages, the game is likely to be quite close and relatively low-scoring. The data suggests the home team Dynamo could surprise Ilya Sorokin in the CSKA goal (on average 1.7 times), while CSKA scores 2.9 goals on average against Dynamo’s Ivan Bocharov according to the simulations. This gives a combined average total of 4.6 goals and 51.6% probability that the game will go over 4.5 goals.
The most likely scorers are Dynamo’s Vadim Schipachyov and CSKA’s Mikhail Grigorenko. There’s a 50% chance that Schipachyov adds to his point tally, while Grigorenko’s is slightly lower on 49%. CSKA’s Linden Vey, Kirill Kaprizov and Jiri Sekac also have over 40% chance of adding a point, while the next in line for Dynamo is Shipachyov’s winger Andre Petterson, with 39%.
Visit Accuscore.com for more betting predictions.