Jun 5, 2018
Jun 5, 2018

2018 US Open betting preview

US Open winner odds: the favourites

Who could offer value?

Shinnecock Hills: US' first links

2018 US Open betting preview

The golf world turns their attention to New York’s Shinnecock Hills on June 14 for the 118th US Open Championship. Where can we find value in the 2018 US Open odds? Read on for an insight into 2018 US Open betting.

2018 US Open: What you need to know

2018 US Open: What you need to know

DateJune 14-17
Location Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, Shinnecock Hills, New York
Most US Open victories Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus (four)
Course best round (at a major competition) Chip Beck, Mark Calcavecchia, Lanny Wadkins - 65 (1986 US Open)

2018 US Open: The course

The U.S Open heads back to New York’s infamous Shinnecock Hills Golf Club for the fifth time in June, but the historic club has undergone substantial changes since it last hosted the championship back in 2014.

The course has been lengthened by 449 yards, which means that the shorter but more accurate hitters may not have it all their own way like in previous years.

One of the USGA’s favourite sites to host its most prestigious championship will still play to a par 70 but is now stretched to 7,445 yards thanks to the adjustments, with the most significant at the 16th. The par-5 was a great place to grab a birdie on your way to the clubhouse, but a birdie this time around will be much harder to come by.

The course made some of the greats look foolish back in 2004, with ball placement being the phrase of the weekend. Whilst fairways have been widened, critical landing zones have in fact been narrowed, making it difficult to get that critical ball placement correct.

Only nine players have finished under par in the last three US Open’s at Shinnecock, with the median score a pretty high +5.5 in 2004. Whilst the course should play differently, expect it to be a real examination.

2018 US Open betting: The favourites

Of all the long hitters in world gold, Dustin Johnson is the straightest, and that kind of weapon in his bag is exactly why he is 11.250* favourite going into the US Open. Particularly if the USGA have tightened fairway landing zones, an accurate driver would be crucial.

The American has averaged 1.784 shots gained from tee to green this year, the best on the PGA Tour. Whilst fast conditions don’t necessarily require a huge hitter, those who are accurate with it can reap big rewards.

Another American atop of the betting odds is Jordan Speith (13.490*). Sure, his slow rolls have put a dampener on his year, but it doesn’t matter how he’s playing entering a major, as he usually turns it on when needed (Eight top five finishes in his last 14 majors, including three wins backs up that theory).

Winner of last year’s Open Championship shows that a Links-style course will be nothing that intimidates the 24-year-old, and his shots gained: tee to green average of 1.779 is just fractions short of table-topper DJ.

Short putts look to be giving Spieth some sleepless nights at current and as we saw in 2004, they are some of the scariest shots to face at Shinnecock, so we will need to see a complete 180 from the US Open Champion here. But if anyone can do it, Spieth can.

Generally considered to be the earliest links in America, it is no surprise that traditionally those who delivered at the Open Championship the year before often thrived at Shinnecock.

Overall, expect those who favour a links course to rise to the top of the 2018 US Open scoreboards, with accuracy overpowering length.

Look at the past US Open Shinnecock champions; St. Andrews-born James Foulis, Raymond Floydand Corey Pavin all had solid records at the Open Championships before winning the US Open. Similarly, Retief Goosen had eight top 10s in Open Championships before his US Open victory in New York.

Enter Rory McIlroy.

The Northern Irishman’s last three Open Championship appearances read as follows: 1, T-5, T-4. His Links credentials are solid and has been in the running for tournament wins five times this year.

The worry for McIlroy is that 2018 could very well become the year which might have been. He isn’t closing out chances to win the way he should and his drought in majors – spanning to his win at the PGA Championship in 2014 – will be a demon he will want to shake.

It isn’t as if McIlroy doesn’t know how to get to the finish line; turning just 29 this year he has already won four majors, two WGC events, a FedEx cup and 24 tournaments worldwide. If McIlroy can find his A-game, then this links course (if the weather stays kind) should suit him perfectly and odds of 13.490* could become a lucrative bet.

2018 US Open winner odds: Potential value

After his win at Torrey Pines, Jason Day won once again at the Wells Fargo Championship before finishing T-5 at the Players. He is also on pace to post the best strokes gained: putting season since records began, averaging 1.414. Could the Aussie be going on one of his infamous runs anytime soon?

He is a momentum player and it feels as though he is beginning to grasp some. In a place where the focus could well be on and around the green, a player who is putting up such incredible putting exhibitions should not be ruled out, and at 16.880* could be a smart bet.

One of the most consistent players on tour and another accurate driver, Rickie Fowler (19.120*) could consider himself rather unlucky to not win his first major at the US Masters.

Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas played Shinnecock last year outside of competition and according to JT, “both shot the easiest 65s ever.”

He has the ability to take this tournament and with a course that looks to challenge every part of your game, an all-rounder like Fowler could come to the fore.

The worry for Rickie is the monkey on his back; “When will I win a major?” It a question we have been asking ourselves time and time again, and the longer the American goes in his career, the harder it will likely be to shrug off.

A prestigious tournament played at an equally prestigious course. Overall, expect those who favour a links course to rise to the top of the 2018 US Open scoreboards, with accuracy overpowering length. Those with accurate length have real chances to take advantage of America’s first links golf course.

Get the best US Masters odds online at Pinnacle.

Odds subject to change

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