The New York Jets travel to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the pick of this week’s NFL fixtures. Looking for value in the NFL Week 4 odds? Read on to inform your NFL Week 4 predictions.
The quarterback situation
Unlike the Giants, the New York Jets made a bold bid to address their unsuccessful array of quarterbacks in recent seasons, albeit a costly one in terms of ceded draft picks.
Pennington and a 2008 swansong from Favre, gave way to a stable, if underwhelming Sanchez, who was followed in quick succession by Smith, Fitzpatrick and McCown.
Darnold has all the physical attributes required of a modern quarterback and impressed sufficiently in pre-season to be given the week one
An equally impressive statistical start in the easy win over
Darnold’s hard landing continued as Cleveland took the ball away from him twice, restricted his completion and yardage per attempt in recording their first win following their 0-16 2017 season.
Robert Griffin was the only selection to break a quarterback rating of more than 100 this decade, fueled by an interception rate of just over 1%, completion rates of 66% and yards per attempt of greater than eight.
New York Jets Statistics
More typically a first year, top quarterback draft selection returns a QB rating in the mid 70’s, completion rates in the mid 50’s, around 6.5 yards per attempt and interception rates of nearly 3%.
Darnold should be an unspectacular performer in 2018 and if he performs in line with those draft picks that went before him may manage to emulate the Jets’ passing ability from 2017. But the upside will hopefully come in subsequent seasons.
In 2017, the Jets passed for just 95% of the average yardage per attempt allowed by their opponents.
They were also a
Darnold has all the physical attributes required of a modern quarterback and impressed sufficiently in pre-season to be given the week one start.
Both below average facets of their
Statistically, they were slightly better on
The Jets’ turnover differential wasn’t too extreme, they gave the ball away four more times than they claimed it and they lost two more narrow matches than they won.
Five actual wins may have become six if they had returns that more closely tracked their Pythagorean.
Jacksonville Jaguars Statistics
The Jaguars were a rare
They went all the way to the AFC Championship game, where they were arguably unlucky to lose narrowly to New England and they also claimed Pittsburgh twice on the road, but their record may not be all that it seems.
The AFC South has been a notoriously weaken division in recent years, where injuries have harmed many of their divisional rivals and for all their success, the Jags still
Blake Bortles made a week three debut in his draft year, experiencing a typically disappointing debut season.
In 2017, the Jags were no better than an averagely efficient passing team and a slightly above average running team, who owed much of their scoring efficiency to a
They scored 3 more points per game than their opponents usually allowed, but seven of those touchdowns were claimed by the defence.
The stars in Jacksonville was a wildly unbalanced defensive unit that conceded the running game, they allowed 4.3 yards per
Opponents faced up to the Jags averaging 6.5 yards per passing
The Jaguars were a rare post season side whose Pythagorean win expectation was nearly two wins above their actual 10-6 record.
The Jags ranked first against the pass, outside the top 20 against the run, but in a passing orientated league they allowed four fewer points per game compared to the average points scored by their opponents.
They are still a top 10 defence from the limited evidence from 2018, gaining a revenge win over the Patriots, but then losing their 100% record when restricting Tennessee to nine points, but failing to score enough points to secure the win.
Where is the Value?
If we pitch Darnold as an upgrade for the future, rather than the present, Pythagorean matchups give the Jags around an 84% chance of winning.
Defensive and offensive matchups suggest that the Jets will have little or no success through the air, but each team will achieve average production in the remaining three matchups.
This projects to a 21- 10 win for Jacksonville, although some of their
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